Quantification of geological uncertainty and risk using stochastic simulation and applications in the coal mining industry

Stochastic simulation is a recognised tool for quantifying the spatial distribution of geological uncertainty and risk in earth science and engineering. Metals mining is an area where simulation technologies are extensively used; however, applications in the coal mining industry have been limited. This is particularly due to the lack of a systematic demonstration illustrating the capabilities these techniques have in problem solving in coal mining. This paper presents two broad and technically distinct areas of applications in coal mining. The first deals with the use of simulation in the quantification of uncertainty in coal seam attributes and risk assessment to assist coal resource classification, and drillhole spacing optimisation to meet pre-specified risk levels at a required confidence. The second application presents the use of stochastic simulation in the quantification of fault risk, an area of particular interest to underground coal mining, and documents the performance of the approach. The examples presented demonstrate the advantages and positive contribution stochastic simulation approaches bring to the coal mining industry

Self-reported risk perception, mood and risk behaviour across the human menstrual cycle

Normally ovulating women exhibit a decline in risk behaviours that may lead to sexual assault during the fertile phase of the menstrual cycle, whereas women using the Pill do not. The current study tests two explanatory models: the mood and fertility models. Self-reported risk and non-risk behaviours, mood, and risk perception in sexual assault and physical risk domains were assessed by testing fiftyone women at menstruation and during their fertile period. Based on the decline in risk behaviours shown in past research, the fertility model predicts that normally ovulating women will display greater risk perception during the fertile phase of their cycle. The mood model predicts that at menstruation, when negative mood is highest, risk perception will be increased and risk behaviours correspondingly reduced. Risk behaviours did not vary over the cycle or between groups. Overall, results support the mood model. Negative mood was greater at menstruation and positive mood during the fertile period for both groups, rational risk perception was correspondingly greater at menstruation. The fertility model was not supported as risk perception ratings did not vary in the expected direction and ratings were not specific to the sexual assault domain.

Towards a molecular epidemiology of alcohol dependence analysing the interplay of genetic and environmental risk factors

Background Progress in identifying genetic factors protective against alcohol dependence (AlcD) requires a paradigm shift in psychiatric epidemiology. Aims To integrate analysis of research into the genetics of alcoholism. Method Data from prospective questionnaire and interview surveys of the Australian twin panel, and from a subsample who underwent alcohol challenge, were analysed. Results In men, effects of alcohol dehydrogenase ADH2*1/*2 genotype or high alcohol sensitivity (risk-decreasing), and of history of childhood conduct disorder, or having monozygotic co-twin or twin sister with AlcD (risk-increasing) were significant and comparable in magnitude. Religious affiliation (Anglican versus other) was associated with the ADH2 genotype, but did not explain the associations with AlcD symptoms. No protective effect of the ADH2*1/*2 genotype was observed in women. Conclusions The early onset and strong familial aggregation of AlcD, and opportunity for within-family tests of genetic association to avoid confounding effects, make epidemiological family studies of adolescents and young adults and their families a priority.

Seclusion use with children and adolescents: an Australian experience

Objective: To summarize the current state of knowledge on the use of seclusion and restraint with children and adolescents and to report the findings of an exploratory study to identify factors that place a child or adolescent at increased risk of seclusion during their admission. Method: Literature searches were undertaken on MEDLINE, CINAHL and PsycINFO databases. Articles were identified that focused specifically on seclusion and restraint use with children and adolescents or contained material significant to this population. The study reports findings from a retrospective review of patient charts, seclusion registers and staffing from an Australian acute inpatient facility. Results: The data available in regard to seclusion use in this population is limited and flawed. Further research is needed on the use and outcomes of seclusion and restraint and on alternative measures in the containment of dangerousness. Both the literature and this study find that patients with certain factors are at increased risk of being secluded during an inpatient stay. These factors include being male, diagnoses of disruptive behaviour disorder and a previous history of physical abuse. Staffing factors did not show a relationship to the use of seclusion. Conclusions: There are patient factors that predict increased risk of seclusion; these factors and their interrelationships require further elucidation. Further research is also needed on the outcomes, both positive and negative, of seclusion use and of alternatives to seclusion.