Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design

Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

Documenting the heroin shortage in New South Wales

Australian heroin markets have recently undergone dramatic change, sparking debate about the nature of such markets. This study aimed to determine the onset, peak and decline of the heroin shortage in New South Wales (NSW), using the most appropriate available methods to detect market level changes. The parameters of the heroin shortage were determined by reviewing: reports of heroin users about availability and price (derived from the existing literature and the Illicit Drug Reporting System); qualitative interviews with injecting drug users, and health and law enforcement professionals working in the illicit drug field; and examining data on heroin seizures over the past decade. There was a marked reduction in heroin supply in NSW in early 2001. An increase in the price of heroin occurred in 2001, whereas it had decreased steadily since 1996. A reduction in purity also occurred, as reported by drug users and heroin seizures. The peak period of the shortage appears to have been January to April 2001. The market appears to have stabilised since that time, although it has not returned to pre- 2001 levels: heroin prices have decreased in NSW for street grams, but not to former levels, and the price of `caps' (street deals) remain elevated. Heroin purity in NSW has remained low, with perhaps a 10% increase above the lowest recorded levels. These data support the notion that the heroin market in NSW underwent significant changes, which appear to have involved a lasting shift in the nature of the market.

Objectives for multiple-species conservation planning

The first step in conservation planning is to identify objectives. Most stated objectives for conservation, such as to maximize biodiversity outcomes, are too vague to be useful within a decision-making framework. One way to clarify the issue is to define objectives in terms of the risk of extinction for multiple species. Although the assessment of extinction risk for single species is common, few researchers have formulated an objective function that combines the extinction risks of multiple species. We sought to translate the broad goal of maximizing the viability of species into explicit objectives for use in a decision-theoretic approach to conservation planning. We formulated several objective functions based on extinction risk across many species and illustrated the differences between these objectives with simple examples. Each objective function was the mathematical representation of an approach to conservation and emphasized different levels of threat Our objectives included minimizing the joint probability of one or more extinctions, minimizing the expected number of extinctions, and minimizing the increase in risk of extinction from the best-case scenario. With objective functions based on joint probabilities of extinction across species, any correlations in extinction probabilities bad to be known or the resultant decisions were potentially misleading. Additive objectives, such as the expected number of extinctions, did not produce the same anomalies. We demonstrated that the choice of objective function is central to the decision-making process because alternative objective functions can lead to a different ranking of management options. Therefore, decision makers need to think carefully in selecting and defining their conservation goals.

Prioritizing global conservation efforts

One of the most pressing issues facing the global conservation community is how to distribute limited resources between regions identified as priorities for biodiversity conservation(1-3). Approaches such as biodiversity hotspots(4), endemic bird areas(5) and ecoregions(6) are used by international organizations to prioritize conservation efforts globally(7). Although identifying priority regions is an important first step in solving this problem, it does not indicate how limited resources should be allocated between regions. Here we formulate how to allocate optimally conservation resources between regions identified as priorities for conservation - the 'conservation resource allocation problem'. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to find the optimal schedule of resource allocation for small problems but is intractable for large problems owing to the curse of dimensionality(8). We identify two easy- to- use and easy- to- interpret heuristics that closely approximate the optimal solution. We also show the importance of both correctly formulating the problem and using information on how investment returns change through time. Our conservation resource allocation approach can be applied at any spatial scale. We demonstrate the approach with an example of optimal resource allocation among five priority regions in Wallacea and Sundaland, the transition zone between Asia and Australasia.

Sensitivity of marine-reserve design to the spatial resolution of socioeconomic data

Socioeconomic considerations should have an important place in reserve design, Systematic reserve-selection tools allow simultaneous optimization for ecological objectives while minimizing costs but are seldom used to incorporate socioeconomic costs in the reserve-design process. The sensitivity of this process to biodiversity data resolution has been studied widely but the issue of socioeconomic data resolution has not previously been considered. We therefore designed marine reserves for biodiversity conservation with the constraint of minimizing commercial fishing revenue losses and investigated how economic data resolution affected the results. Incorporating coarse-resolution economic data from official statistics generated reserves that were only marginally less costly to the fishery than those designed with no attempt to minimize economic impacts. An intensive survey yielded fine-resolution data that, when incorporated in the design process, substantially reduced predicted fishery losses. Such an approach could help minimize fisher displacement because the least profitable grounds are selected for the reserve. Other work has shown that low-resolution biodiversity data can lead to underestimation of the conservation value of some sites, and a risk of overlooking the most valuable areas, and we have similarly shown that low-resolution economic data can cause underestimation of the profitability of some sites and a risk of inadvertently including these in the reserve. Detailed socioeconomic data are therefore an essential input for the design of cost-effective reserve networks.

Specialization of pyramidal cell structure in the visual areas V1, V2 and V3 of the South American rodent, Dasyprocta primnolopha

Marked phenotypic variation has been reported in pyramidal cells in the primate cerebral cortex. These extent and systematic nature of these specializations suggest that they are important for specialized aspects of cortical processing. However, it remains unknown as to whether regional variations in the pyramidal cell phenotype are unique to primates or if they are widespread amongst mammalian species. In the present study we determined the receptive fields of neurons in striate and extrastriate visual cortex, and quantified pyramidal cell structure in these cortical regions, in the diurnal, large-brained, South American rodent Dasyprocta primnolopha. We found evidence for a first, second and third visual area (V1, V2 and V3, respectively) forming a lateral progression from the occipital pole to the temporal pole. Pyramidal cell structure became increasingly more complex through these areas, suggesting that regional specialization in pyramidal cell phenotype is not restricted to primates. However, cells in V1, V2 and V3 of the agouti were considerably more spinous than their counterparts in primates, suggesting different evolutionary and developmental influences may act on cortical microcircuitry in rodents and primates. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of social capital in the promotion of conservation farming: The case of 'landcare' in the southern Philippines

'Social capital' refers to the relationships of trust, communication, and cooperation that facilitate collective action in a community. It is particularly relevant to soil conservation in developing countries, which requires collective efforts to raise awareness of soil degradation, provide effective training in soil conservation practices, and implement soil conservation measures on individual farms. The Landcare Program in the Southern Philippines promotes simple conservation practices in upland environments through establishing and supporting community landcare groups and municipal landcare associations, thus augmenting the social capital of farmers in these locations. An evaluation of the Landcare Program in Barangay Ned, South Cotabato, based on a survey of 313 farm households and case studies of nine landcare groups, shows that, despite extreme isolation and difficult working conditions, farmers responded by rapidly forming landcare groups and a landcare association, and adopting contour barriers on their maize farms. They utilized the bonding social capital inhering in their local communities to build stocks of bridging social capital, linking them to information, training and resources from outside their immediate locality. A logistic regression model of the factors affecting adoption of contour barriers shows that farmers who had undergone the practical, farmer-based training provided by the Landcare Program, and who were members of a landcare group, were significantly more likely to adopt conservation measures. These results confirm the value of investing in social capital to promote soil conservation. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A community-based wildlife survey: the knowledge and attitudes of residents of suburban Brisbane, with a focus on bandicoots

Within the expanding city of Brisbane in south-east Queensland, numerous fragments of native and regrowth vegetation are scattered across the largely urbanised landscape. These fragments provide refuge to a great diversity of native wildlife, and, provide residents with the opportunity to experience nature on their doorstep. To assess the diversity and abundance of this wildlife, recent changes in these parameters, and the value of wildlife and bushland fragments to residents of Brisbane, a questionnaire survey was distributed to 300 households each located adjacent to one of 38 urban bushland fragments. A total of 172 surveys (57%) were returned, producing 768 records of 83 fauna species, dominated by birds and mammals; bandicoots were widely reported from the 38 fragments. Several historical records provided evidence of recent local extinctions within fragments, highlighting the continuing declines in various species of native wildlife within Brisbane. Several human-wildlife conflicts were identified, but overall residents were tolerant of such conflicts. Bandicoots were disliked by a small minority (3%) of residents owing to the holes they dig in lawns and gardens in search of food. and their potential as vectors of ticks. Most respondents expressed ail appreciation for the presence of native wildlife (96%) and bushland fragments (97%) in their local area, emphasising the importance of incorporating human dimension values into the management of this urban biodiversity.

Community, connection and conservation: Intangible cultural values in natural heritage - the case of Shirakami-sanchi World Heritage area

Intangible cultural heritage, according to a UNESCO definition, is 'the practices, representations, expressions as well as the knowledge and skills that communities, groups and in some cases individuals recognise as part of their cultural heritage'. Using a case study of Shirakami-sanchi World Heritage Area, this paper illustrates how the local community's conservation commitment was formed through their long-term everyday interactions with nature. Such connectivity is vital to maintaining the authentic integrity of a place that does not exclude humans. An examination of the formation of the community's conservation commitment for Shirakami reveals that it is the community's spiritual connection and place-based identity that have supported conservation, leading to the World Heritage nomination, and it is argued that the recognition of such intangible cultural heritage is vital in conservation. The challenge, then, is how to communicate such spiritual heritage today. Forms of community involvement are discussed in an attempt to answer this question.

Testing alternative models for the conservation of koalas in fragmented rural-urban landscapes

Predicting the various responses of different species to changes in landscape structure is a formidable challenge to landscape ecology. Based on expert knowledge and landscape ecological theory, we develop five competing a priori models for predicting the presence/absence of the Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in Noosa Shire, south-east Queensland (Australia). A priori predictions were nested within three levels of ecological organization: in situ (site level) habitat (< 1 ha), patch level (100 ha) and landscape level (100-1000 ha). To test the models, Koala surveys and habitat surveys (n = 245) were conducted across the habitat mosaic. After taking into account tree species preferences, the patch and landscape context, and the neighbourhood effect of adjacent present sites, we applied logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning analyses to rank the alternative models and the explanatory variables. The strongest support was for a multilevel model, with Koala presence best predicted by the proportion of the landscape occupied by high quality habitat, the neighbourhood effect, the mean nearest neighbour distance between forest patches, the density of forest patches and the density of sealed roads. When tested against independent data (n = 105) using a receiver operator characteristic curve, the multilevel model performed moderately well. The study is consistent with recent assertions that habitat loss is the major driver of population decline, however, landscape configuration and roads have an important effect that needs to be incorporated into Koala conservation strategies.

Sustainable Native Floriculture?

The Centre for Native Floriculture (CNF) commenced in May 2003 at The University of Queensland, Gatton. The CNF is a joint initiative with the Queensland State Government, with funding for an initial 3-year period. The phase-out of bush-picking under the South East Queensland Forests Agreement was a catalyst for the Centres establishment. The CNF vision is: ‘to help create an internationally competitive and environmentally sustainable native floriculture industry that provides significant employment opportunities in Queensland’. The Centre is comprised of three research, development and extension programs. The Value Chain Program assists native floriculture industry groups in developing efficient consumer-orientated production, handling and marketing systems for select high potential species. These value chain systems will serve as models for realizing the market potential of and regional fiscal returns on other native ornamental species identified as crop ideotypes that are sought after by end-users (e.g. florists). The Floriculture Program supports the value chain by working to enhance germplasm for the native floriculture industry through selection and breeding, optimize cultivation protocols and overcome any technical barriers that arise. Such barriers include propagation constraints, disease problems and post-harvest limitations. The Capacity Building Program operates to transfer technology and other skills (e.g. value chain management principles) to industry members, train operatives for the industry and promote native floriculture. Conservation of native flora is encouraged through cultivation and community engagement. Protection of biodiversity is advocated via regional production systems that spare natural areas and educate the public as to the biological, floricultural and aesthetic values of native flora. Eco-agricultural tourism focused on wildflowers both in nature and in cultivation is also advocated by the CNF.

The changing nature and role of the head of department

There is little doubt that devolution of responsibility to schools and the growth of school-based management have impacted upon the role and workload of school leaders. Not only Principals have been affected by these changes as Welch (1996) argues that Principals of public secondary schools have passed responsibility down to Deputy-principals and to Heads of Department. As such, the Head of Department role, like other school administration positions, has undergone significant change. Of interest to this paper is the changing role of Heads of Department in secondary schools. This study reports on the findings of semi-structured interviews with eight Heads of Department from four public secondary schools and Principals from each of these schools in South East Queensland. Four years after the first set of interviews, two heads of department were reinterviewed. Both sets of interviews focused upon the role, change, and the importance of leadership. The research generated eight specific themes each of which was considered consistent with the nature of the role in a period of significant cultural change. These were the difference in perceptions regarding the Head of Department role, held by Principals and Heads of Department; Head of Department leadership in terms of a curriculum framed department or whole school leadership; how individuals perceived leadership, and how they learned of leadership; the impact of the changing culture upon the individual Head of Department; the growing influence of situational factors upon the role; the impact of managerialism; the changing nature of a secondary school department; and a growing and more complex workload, and the need for different skills. Furthermore, the findings pointed towards the need for effective change processes and a reconceptualized head of department role. The paper concludes with some implications for the ongoing professional development needs of Heads of Department.