A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Changes in conceptions of learning for indigenous Australian university students

Background. Conceptions of learning have been investigated for students in higher. education in different countries. Some studies found that students' conceptions change and develop over time while others have found no changes. Investigating conceptions of learning for Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander university students is a relatively new area of research. Aims. This study set out to investigate conceptions of learning for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander university students during the first two years of their undergraduate degree courses in three Australian universities. Conceptions for each year were compared. Knowing, more about learning as conceived by this cultural group may facilitate more productive higher educational experiences. Sample. The sample comprised 17 students studying various degrees; Il were male and 6 were female. Ages ranged from 18 to 48 years; mean age was 26 years. Method. This was a phenomenographic, longitudinal study. Individual semistructured interviews were conducted each year to ascertain students' conceptions of learning. Conceptions for second year were derived independently of those From first year. A comparative analysis then took place to determine ally changes. Results. These students held conceptions of learning that were similar to those of other university students; however there were some intrinsic differences. On a group level, conceptions changed somewhat over the two years as did core conceptions reported by some individual students. Some students also exhibited a greater awareness of learning during their second year that resulted in three dimensions of changed awareness. Conclusions. We believe the changed conceptions and awareness resulted from learning at university where there is some need to understand and explain phenomena in relation to theory. This brought about new understandings which allowed students to see their own learning in a relational sense.

Memory awareness and schematization: Learning in the university context

Following the application of the remember/know paradigm to student learning by Conway et al. (1997), this study examined changes in learning and memory awareness of university students in a lecture course and a research methods course. The proposed shift from a dominance of 'remember' awareness in early learning to a dominance of 'know' awareness as learning progresses and schematization occurs was evident for the methods course but not for the lecture course. The patterns of remember and know awareness and proposed associated levels of schematization were supported by a separate measure of the quality of student learning using the SOLO (Structure of Observed Learning Outcomes) Taxonomy. As found by previous research, the remember-to-know shift and schematization of knowledge is dependent upon type of course and level of achievement. Findings are discussed in terms of the utility of the methodology used, the theoretical implications and the applications to educational practice. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.