92 resultados para Applications in Economics and Epidemiology


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Based on clues from epidemiology, low prenatal vitamin D has been proposed as a candidate risk factor for schizophrenia. Recent animal experiments have demonstrated that transient prenatal vitamin D deficiency is associated with persistent alterations in brain morphology and neurotrophin expression. In order to explore the utility of the vitamin D animal model of schizophrenia, we examined different types of learning and memory in adult rats exposed to transient prenatal vitamin D deficiency. Compared to control animals, the prenatally deplete animals had a significant impairment of latent inhibition, a feature often associated with schizophrenia. In addition, the deplete group was (a) significantly impaired on hole board habituation and (b) significantly better at maintaining previously learnt rules of brightness discrimination in a Y-chamber. In contrast, the prenatally deplete animals showed no impairment on the spatial learning task in the radial maze, nor on two-way active avoidance learning in the shuttle-box. The results indicate that transient prenatal vitamin D depletion in the rat is associated with subtle and discrete alterations in learning and memory. The behavioural phenotype associated with this animal model may provide insights into the neurobiological correlates of the cognitive impairments of schizophrenia. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.

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Background - Smoking is a major cause of cardiovascular disease mortality. There is little information on how it contributes to global and regional cause-specific mortality from cardiovascular diseases for which background risk varies because of other risks. Method and Results - We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) and the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease mortality database to estimate smoking-attributable deaths from ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and a cluster of other cardiovascular diseases for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.62 (95% CI, 1.27 to 2.04) million cardiovascular deaths in the world, 11% of total global cardiovascular deaths, were due to smoking. Of these, 1.17 million deaths were among men and 450 000 among women. There were 670 000 (95% CI, 440 000 to 920 000) smoking-attributable cardiovascular deaths in the developing world and 960 000 (95% CI, 770 000 to 1 200 000) in industrialized regions. Ischemic heart disease accounted for 54% of smoking-attributable cardiovascular mortality, followed by cerebrovascular disease (25%). There was variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of various cardiovascular diseases. Conclusions - More than 1 in every 10 cardiovascular deaths in the world in the year 2000 were attributable to smoking, demonstrating that it is an important preventable cause of cardiovascular mortality.

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OBJECTIVE To determine whether the academic performance of medical students learning in rural settings differs from those learning in urban settings. DESIGN Comparison of results of assessment for 2 full cohorts and 1 part cohort of medical students learning in rural and urban settings in 2002 (209 students), 2003 (226 students) and 2004 (220 students), including results for each specialist rotation in the 3rd year and end-of-year examinations in the 2nd and 4th years. SETTING University of Queensland School of Medicine, Brisbane. Students spent the whole 3rd year (of a 4-year graduate entry programme) conducting 5 specialist 8-week rotations in either the rural clinical division (rural students) or in Brisbane (urban students), all following the same curriculum and taking the same examinations. RESULTS For the 2002 cohort there were no statistically significant differences in academic performance between rural and urban students. For the 2003 cohort the only significant difference was a higher score for rural students in the end of the 4th-year clinical skills examination (65.7 versus 62.3%, P = 0.025). For the 2004 cohort, rural students scored higher in the 3rd-year mental health rotation (79.3 versus 76.2%, P = 0.038) and lower in the medicine rotation (65.5 versus 68.6%, P = 0.037). CONCLUSION Academic performance among students studying in rural and urban settings is comparable.

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A T cell antigen receptor (TCR) transmembrane sequence derived peptide (CP) has been shown to inhibit T cell activation both in vitro and in vivo at the membrane level of the receptor signal transduction. To examine the effect of sugar or lipid conjugations on CP function, we linked CP to 1-aminoglucosesuccinate (GS), N-myristate (MYR), mono-di-tripalmitate (LP1, LP2, or LP3), and a lipoamino acid (LA) and examined the effects of these compounds on T cell activation in vitro and by using a rat model of adjuvant-induced arthritis, in vivo. In vitro, antigen presentation results demonstrated that lipid conjugation enhanced CP's ability to lower IL-2 production from 56.99% +/- 15.69 S.D. observed with CP, to 12.08% +/- 3.34 S.D. observed with LA. The sugar conjugate GS resulted in only a mild loss of in vitro activity compared to CP (82.95% +/- 14.96 S.D.). In vivo, lipid conjugation retarded the progression of adjuvant-induced arthritis by approximately 50%, whereas the sugar. conjugated CP, GS, almost completely inhibited the progression of arthritis. This study demonstrates that hydrophobic peptide activity is markedly enhanced in vitro and in vivo by conjugation to lipids or sugars. This may have practical applications in drug delivery and bioavailability of hydrophobic peptides. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.

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Background There are substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality in many countries. Smoking is often more prevalent among men of lower social class, education, or income. The contribution of smoking to these social inequalities in mortality remains uncertain. Methods The contribution of smoking to adult mortality in a population can be estimated indirectly from disease-specific death rates in that population (using absolute lung cancer rates to indicate proportions due to smoking of mortality from certain other diseases). We applied these methods to 1996 death rates at ages 35-69 years in men in three different social strata in four countries, based on a total of 0.6 million deaths. The highest and lowest social strata were based on social class (professional vs unskilled manual) in England and Wales, neighbourhood income (top vs bottom quintile) in urban Canada, and completed years of education (more than vs less than 12 years) in the USA and Poland. Results In each country, there was about a two-fold difference between the highest and the lowest social strata in overall risks of dying among men aged 35-69 years (England and Wales 21% vs 43%, USA 20% vs 37%, Canada 21% vs 34%, Poland 26% vs 50%: four-country mean 22% vs 41%, four-country mean absolute difference 19%). More than half of this difference in mortality between the top and bottom social strata involved differences in risks of being killed at age 35-69 years by smoking (England and Wales 4% vs 19%, USA 4% vs 15%, Canada 6% vs 13%, Poland 5% vs 22%: four-country mean 5% vs 17%, four-country mean absolute difference 12%). Smoking-attributed mortality accounted for nearly half of total male mortality in the lowest social stratum of each country. Conclusion In these populations, most, but not all, of the substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality during the 1990s were due to the effects of smoking. Widespread cessation of smoking could eventually halve the absolute differences between these social strata in the risk of premature death.

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This paper has three primary aims: to establish an effective means for modelling mainland-island metapopulations inhabiting a dynamic landscape: to investigate the effect of immigration and dynamic changes in habitat on metapopulation patch occupancy dynamics; and to illustrate the implications of our results for decision-making and population management. We first extend the mainland-island metapopulation model of Alonso and McKane [Bull. Math. Biol. 64:913-958,2002] to incorporate a dynamic landscape. It is shown, for both the static and the dynamic landscape models, that a suitably scaled version of the process converges to a unique deterministic model as the size of the system becomes large. We also establish that. under quite general conditions, the density of occupied patches, and the densities of suitable and occupied patches, for the respective models, have approximate normal distributions. Our results not only provide us with estimates for the means and variances that are valid at all stages in the evolution of the population, but also provide a tool for fitting the models to real metapopulations. We discuss the effect of immigration and habitat dynamics on metapopulations, showing that mainland-like patches heavily influence metapopulation persistence, and we argue for adopting measures to increase connectivity between this large patch and the other island-like patches. We illustrate our results with specific reference to examples of populations of butterfly and the grasshopper Bryodema tuberculata.

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This paper proposes an architecture for pervasive computing which utilizes context information to provide adaptations based on vertical handovers (handovers between heterogeneous networks) while supporting application Quality of Service (QoS). The future of mobile computing will see an increase in ubiquitous network connectivity which allows users to roam freely between heterogeneous networks. One of the requirements for pervasive computing is to adapt computing applications or their environment if current applications can no longer be provided with the requested QoS. One of possible adaptations is a vertical handover to a different network. Vertical handover operations include changing network interfaces on a single device or changes between different devices. Such handovers should be performed with minimal user distraction and minimal violation of communication QoS for user applications. The solution utilises context information regarding user devices, user location, application requirements, and network environment. The paper shows how vertical handover adaptations are incorporated into the whole infrastructure of a pervasive system

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The in situ real time measurement of the regression rate of a melting interface (RRMI) is performed by the ultrasonic measurement system reported here. The RRMI is the rate at which a solid/liquid interface (SLI) moves along a metallic rod while burning in an oxygen-enriched atmosphere and is an important flatnmability indicator. The ultrasonic transducer and associated equipment used to drive the transducer and record the echo signal is described, along with the process that transforms the acquired signals into a RRMI value. Test rods of various metals and geometric shapes were burned at several test conditions in different test facilities. The RRMI results with quantified errors are presented and reviewed. The effect of reduced gravity on burning metals is important to space-applications and RRMI results obtained in a reduced gravity environment are also presented.