Rumors and stable-cause attribution in prediction and behavior

Two stock-market simulation experiments investigated the notion that rumors that invoke stable-cause attributions spawn illusory associations and less regressive predictions and behavior. In Study 1, illusory perceptions of association and stable causation (rumors caused price changes on the day after they appeared) existed despite rigorous conditions of nonassociation (price changes were unrelated to rumors). Predictions (recent price trends will continue) and trading behavior (departures from a strong buy-low-sell-high strategy) were both anti-regressive. In Study 2, stability of attribution was manipulated via a computerized tutorial. Participants taught to view price-changes as caused by stable forces predicted less regressively and departed more from buy-low-sell-high trading patterns than those taught to perceive changes as caused by unstable forces. Results inform a social cognitive and decision theoretic understanding of rumor by integrating it with causal attribution, covariation detection, and prediction theory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Inflation expectations, interest rates and arbitrary income transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over-predicted and too low when they are under-predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.

Lawyers and the third dimension : A Solicitor v Council of the Law Society of New South Wales

Casenote and comment on the High Court case of A Solicitor v Council of the Law Society of New South Wales which dealt with the issue of whether a solicitor, convicted of aggravated indecent assault, should be allowed to continue practicing law.

Handing over the keys : Contingency, power and resistance in the context of section 3LA of the Australian Crimes Act 1914

Using the work and ideas of French theorist Michel Foucault the writer examines s 3LA of the Crimes Act, which provides law enforcement officers with power to compel a person to reveal their private encryption keys and other personal information, and concludes that such a section creates fear, redirects flow of power between law enforcement agencies and citizens, and creates resistance.

Habitat selection and population regulation in temporally fluctuating environments

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology, and the theory of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) provides ecologists with an inferential framework linking evolution and population dynamics. Current theory does not allow for temporal variation in habitat quality, a serious limitation when confronted with real ecological systems. We develop both a stochastic equivalent of the ideal free distribution to study how spatial patterns of habitat use depend on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity and also a stochastic habitat selection rule. The emerging patterns are confronted with deterministic predictions based on isodar analysis, an established empirical approach to the analysis of habitat selection patterns. Our simulations highlight some consistent patterns of habitat use, indicating that it is possible to make inferences about the habitat selection process based on observed patterns of habitat use. However, isodar analysis gives results that are contingent on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity. Hence, DDHS is better revealed by a measure of habitat selectivity than by empirical isodars. The detection of DDHS is but a small component of isodar theory, which remains an important conceptual framework for linking evolutionary strategies in behavior and population dynamics.

Ethics and intervention: The 'humanitarian exception' and the problem of abuse in the case of Iraq

This article investigates the ethics of intervention and explores the decision to invade Iraq. It begins by arguing that while positive international law provides an important framework for understanding and debating the legitimacy of war, it does not cover the full spectrum of moral reasoning on issues of war and peace. To that end, after briefly discussing the two primary legal justifications for war (implied UN authorization and pre-emptive self-defence), and finding them wanting, it asks whether there is a moral 'humanitarian exceptions to this rule grounded in the 'just war' tradition. The article argues that two aspects of the broad tradition could be used to make a humanitarian case for war: the 'holy war' tradition and classical just war thinking based on natural law. The former it finds problematic, while the latter it argues provides a moral space to justify the use of force to halt gross breaches of natural law. Although such an approach may provide a moral justification for war, it also opens the door to abuse. It was this very problem that legal positivism from Vattel onwards was designed to address. As a result, the article argues that natural law and legal positivist arguments should be understood as complementary sets of ideas whose sometimes competing claims must be balanced in relation to particular cases. Therefore, although natural law may open a space for justifying the invasion of Iraq on humanitarian terms, legal positivism strictly limits that right. Ignoring this latter fact, as happened in the Iraq case, opens the door to abuse.

Investigating genetic discrimination in Australia: Opportunities and challenges in the early stages

Genetic discrimination, defined as the differential treatment of individuals or their relatives on the basis of actual or presumed genetic differences, is an emerging issue of interest in academic, clinical, social and legal contexts. While its potential significance has been discussed widely, verified empirical data are scarce. Genetic discrimination is a complex phenomenon to describe and investigate, as evidenced by the recent Australian Law Reform Commission inquiry in Australia. The authors research project, which commenced in 2002, aims to document the multiple perspectives and experiences regarding genetic discrimination in Australia and inform future policy development and law reform. Data are being collected from consumers, employers, insurers and the legal system. Attempted verification of alleged accounts of genetic discrimination will be a novel feature of the research. This paper overviews the early stages of the research, including conceptual challenges and their methodological implications.

Association between clinician factors and a patient's wish to hasten death: Terminally ill cancer patients and their doctors

This study investigated the clinical factors associated with a wish to hasten death among patients with advanced cancer receiving palliative care, with a focus on the role of clinician-related factors. Patients were grouped into high- and low-scoring groups on the basis of their wish to hasten death; doctor-patient pairs were formed. Questionnaire data collected from patients and their treating doctors were subjected to multivariate analysis. Significant predictors of a high wish to hasten death in terminally ill patients from among treating clinicians included the clinician's perception of the patient's lower optimism and greater emotional suffering, the patient indicating a wish to hasten death, the doctor willing to assist the patient in hastening death (if requested and legal), and the doctor reporting less training in psychotherapy. When these variables were combined with patient factors identified in a previous study, the model significantly predicted a wish to hasten death with the following variables patient factors: a higher perceived burden on others, higher depressive symptom scores, and lower family cohesion; physician factors: the doctor willing to assist the patient in hastening death (if requested and legal), the doctor's perception of lower levels of optimism and greater emotional distress in the patient, and the doctor having less training in psychotherapy; and the setting of care: recent admission to a hospice. The findings support the multifactorial influences on the wish to hasten death and suggest that the role of the clinician is a vital context within which the wish to hasten death should be considered.

Theory for designing nature reserves for single species

We examine the question of the optimal number of reserves that should be established to maximize the persistence of a species. We assume that the mean time to extinction of a single population increases as a power of the habitat area, that there is a certain amount of habitat to be reserved, and that the aim is to determine how this habitat is most efficiently divided. The optimal configuration depends on whether the management objective is to maximize the mean time to extinction or minimize the risk of extinction. When maximizing the mean time to extinction, the optimal number of independent reserves does not depend on the amount of available habitat for the reserve system. In contrast, the risk of extinction is minimized when individual reserves are equal to the optimal patch size, making the optimal number of reserves linearly proportional to the amount of available habitat. A model that includes dispersal and correlation in the incidence of extinction demonstrates the importance of considering the relative rate at which these two factors decrease with distance between reserves. A small number of reserves is optimal when the mean time to extinction increases rapidly with habitat area or when risks of extinction are high.

Evaluating stranger and acquaintance rape: The role of benevolent sexism in perpetrator blame and recommended sentence length

In most jurisdictions, the law does not recognize the distinction between stranger and acquaintance rape. However, these two types of rape seem to elicit different responses from both lay observers and legal practitioners. Two studies investigating the role of benevolent sexism (BS) in accounting for participants' responses to acquaintance vs. stranger rape perpetrators are reported. Participants were presented with vignettes describing either an acquaintance rape or a stranger rape. As predicted, relative to low-BS individuals, participants who scored high in BS attributed less blame ( Study 1) and recommended shorter sentences ( Study 2) for the acquaintance rape perpetrator. Benevolent sexism was unrelated to reactions to the perpetrator in the stranger rape condition.