An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 2. Residuals analysis and a case study

In Part 1 of this paper a methodology for back-to-back testing of simulation software was described. Residuals with error-dependent geometric properties were generated. A set of potential coding errors was enumerated, along with a corresponding set of feature matrices, which describe the geometric properties imposed on the residuals by each of the errors. In this part of the paper, an algorithm is developed to isolate the coding errors present by analysing the residuals. A set of errors is isolated when the subspace spanned by their combined feature matrices corresponds to that of the residuals. Individual feature matrices are compared to the residuals and classified as 'definite', 'possible' or 'impossible'. The status of 'possible' errors is resolved using a dynamic subset testing algorithm. To demonstrate and validate the testing methodology presented in Part 1 and the isolation algorithm presented in Part 2, a case study is presented using a model for biological wastewater treatment. Both single and simultaneous errors that are deliberately introduced into the simulation code are correctly detected and isolated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Document retrieval for e-mail search and discovery using Formal Concept Analysis

This paper discusses a document discovery tool based on Conceptual Clustering by Formal Concept Analysis. The program allows users to navigate e-mail using a visual lattice metaphor rather than a tree. It implements a virtual. le structure over e-mail where files and entire directories can appear in multiple positions. The content and shape of the lattice formed by the conceptual ontology can assist in e-mail discovery. The system described provides more flexibility in retrieving stored e-mails than what is normally available in e-mail clients. The paper discusses how conceptual ontologies can leverage traditional document retrieval systems and aid knowledge discovery in document collections.

Assessing forest fire as a potential PCDD/F source in Queensland, Australia

Forest fires are suggested as a potential and significant source of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), even though no studies to date provide sufficient evidence to confirm forest fires as a source of PCDD/Fs. Recent investigations in Gueensland, Australia have identified a widespread contamination of PCDDs (in particular OND) in soils and sediments in the coastal region from an unknown source of PCDD/Fs. Queensland is predominately rural; it has few known anthropogenic sources of PCDD/Fs, whereas forest fires are a frequent occurrence. This study was conducted to assess forest fires as a potential source of the unknown PCDD/F contamination in Queensland. A combustion experiment was designed to assess the overall mass of PCDD/Fs before and after a simulated forest fire. The results from this study did not identify an increase in Sigma-PCDD/Fs or OCDD after the combustion process. However, specific non-2,3,7,8 substituted lower chlorinated PCDD/Fs were elevated after the combustion process, suggesting formation from a precursor. The results from this study indicate that forest fires are unlikely to be the source of the unknown PCDD contamination in Gueensland, rather they are a key mechanism for the redistribution of PCDD/Fs from existing sources and precursors.

In situ characterization of stickiness of sugar-rich foods using a linear actuator driven stickiness testing device

A stickiness testing device based on the probe tack test has been designed and tested. It was used to perform in situ characterization of drying hemispherical drops with an initial radius 3.5 mm. Tests were carried out in two drying temperatures, 63 and 95 degreesC. Moisture and temperature histories of the drying drops of fructose, honey, sucrose, maltodextrin and sucrose-maltodextrin mixtures were determined. The rates of moisture evaporation of the fructose solution was the fastest while those of the maltodextrin solution was the lowest. A profile reversal was observed when the temperature profiles of these materials were compared. Different modes of failure were observed during the stickiness tests. Pure fructose and honey solutions remained completely sticky and failed cohesively until the end of drying. Pure sucrose solution remained sticky and failed cohesively until complete crystallization occurred. The surface of the maltodextrin drops formed a skin shortly after the start of drying. It exhibited adhesive failure and reached a state of non-adhesion. Addition of maltodextrin significantly altered the stickiness of sucrose solution. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of the surface stickiness of fructose-maltodextrin solutions during drying

A probe tack test has been used for the in situ characterization of the surface stickiness of hemispherical drops with an initial radius of 3.5 mm while drying. Surface stickiness of drops of fructose and maltodextrin solutions dried at 63degreesC and 95degreesC was determined. The effect of addition of maltodextrin on fructose solution-was studied with fructose/maltodextrin solid mass ratios of 4: 1, 1: 1, and 1:4. Pure fructose solutions remained completely sticky and failed cohesively even when their moisture approached zero. Shortly after the start of drying, the surface of the maltodextrin drops formed a skin, which rapidly grew in thickness. Subsequently the drop surface became completely nonsticky probably due to transformation of outer layers into a glassy material. Addition of malto,dextrin significantly altered the surface stickiness of drops of fructose solutions, demonstrating its use as an effective drying aid.

Effect of lifter design on drying performance in rotary dryers

Lifter use in dryers improves mass transfer by increasing the amount of surface area available for transfer and also by increasing the velocity of gas over the particle surface. An even cross-sectional distribution of particles in a dryer improves the efficiency of operation by ensuring that evaporation from falling particles is taking place for the maximum fraction of the rotation period of the drier. Studies on lifter design to improve the cross-sectional particle distribution were performed on angled lifters. A single lifter was used and the mass-transfer rate examined as a function of angular lifter displacement. Analysis of the mass transfer characteristics of single lifters allowed performance comparisons and recommendations for lifter design.

Surface stickiness of drops of carbohydrate and organic acid solutions during convective drying: Experiments and modeling

Drying kinetics of low molecular weight sugars such as fructose, glucose, sucrose and organic acid such as citric acid and high molecular weight carbohydrate such as maltodextrin (DE 6) were determined experimentally using single drop drying experiments as well as predicted numerically by solving the mass and heat transfer equations. The predicted moisture and temperature histories agreed with the experimental ones within 6% average relative (absolute) error and average difference of +/- 1degreesC, respectively. The stickiness histories of these drops were determined experimentally and predicted numerically based on the glass transition temperature (T-g) of surface layer. The model predicted the experimental observations with good accuracy. A nonsticky regime for these materials during spray drying is proposed by simulating a drop, initially 120 mum in diameter, in a spray drying environment.

Reliability of moderate-intensity and vigorous physical activity stage of change measures for young adults

Background. The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability of stage of change (SOC) measures for moderate-intensity and vigorous physical activity in two separate samples of young adults. Staging measures have focused on vigorous exercise, but current public health guidelines emphasize moderate-intensity activity. Method. For college students in the USA (n = 105) and in Australia (n = 123), SOC was assessed separately on two occasions for moderate-intensity activity and for vigorous activity. Test-retest repeatability was determined, using Cohen's kappa coefficient. Results. In both samples, the reliability scores for the moderate-intensity physical activity staging measure were lower than the scores for the vigorous exercise staging measure. Weighted kappa values for the moderate-intensity staging measure were in the fair to good range for both studies (0.50 and 0.45); for the vigorous staging measure kappa values were excellent and fair to good (0.76 and 0.72). Conclusions. There is a need to standardize and improve methods for staging moderate-intensity activity, given that such measures are used in public health interventions targeting HEPA (health-enhancing physical activity). (C) 2003 American Health Foundation and Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Evaluating a model of parental influence on youth physical activity

Objective: To test a conceptual model linking parental physical activity orientations, parental support for physical activity, and children's self-efficacy perceptions with physical activity participation. Participants and Setting: The sample consisted of 380 students in grades 7 through 12 (mean age, 14.0 +/- 1.6 years) and their parents. Data collection took place during the fall of 1996. Main Outcome Measures: Parents completed a questionnaire assessing their physical activity habits, enjoyment of physical activity, beliefs regarding the importance of physical activity, and supportive behaviors for their child's physical activity. Students completed a 46-item inventory assessing physical activity during the previous 7 days and a 5-item physical activity self-efficacy scale. The model was tested via observed variable path analysis using structural equation modeling techniques (AMOS 4.0). Results: An initial model, in which parent physical activity orientations predicted child physical activity via parental support and child self-efficacy, did not provide an acceptable fit to the data. Inclusion of a direct path from parental support to child physical activity and deletion of a nonsignificant path from parental physical activity to child physical activity significantly improved model fit. Standardized path coefficients for the revised model ranged from 0.17 to 0.24, and all were significant at the p < 0.0001 level. Conclusions: Parental support was an important correlate of youth physical activity, acting directly or indirectly through its influence on self-efficacy. Physical activity interventions targeted at youth should include and evaluate the efficacy of individual-level and community-level strategies to increase parents' capacity to provide instrumental and motivational support for their children's physical activity.

Dissolution of sucrose crystals in the anhydrous sorbitol melt

The dissolution of a sugar (sucrose as a model) with higher melting point was studied in a molten food polyol (sorbitol as a model) with lower melting point, both in anhydrous state. A DSC and optical examination revealed the dissolution of anhydrous sucrose crystals (mp 192 degreesC) in anhydrous sorbitol (mp 99 degreesC) liquid melt. The sucrose-sorbitol crystal mixtures at the proportions of 10, 30, 60, 100 and 150 g of sucrose per 100 g of sorbitol were heat scanned in a DSC to above melting endotherm of sorbitol but well below the onset temperature of melting of sucrose at three different temperatures 110, 130 and 150 degreesC. The heat scanning modes used were with or without isothermal holding. The dissolution of sucrose in the sorbitol liquid melt was manifested by an increase in the glass transition temperature of the melt and corresponding decrease in endothermic melting enthalpy of sucrose. At given experimental conditions, as high as 25 and 85% of sucrose dissolved in the sorbitol melt during 1 h of isothermal holding at 110 and 150 degreesC, respectively. Optical microscopic observation also clearly showed the reduction in the size of sucrose crystals in sorbitol melt during the isothermal holding at those temperatures. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solubility of selected esters in supercritical carbon dioxide

The solubility of ethyl propionate, ethyl butyrate, and ethyl isovalerate in supercritical carbon dioxide was measured at temperature ranging from 308.15 to 333.15 K and pressure ranging from 85 to 195 bar. At the same temperature, the solubility of these compounds increases with pressure. The crossover pressure region was also observed in this study. The experimental data were correlated by the semi-empirical Chrastil equation and Peng-Robinson equation of state (EOS) using several mixing rules. The Peng-Robinson EOS gives better solubility prediction than the empirical Chrastil equation. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence and information for health policy: a decade of change

Over the past decade or so, there has been increasing demand for greater clarity about the major causes of disease and injury, how these differentially affect populations, and how they are changing. In part, this demand has been motivated by resource constraints and a realisation that better health is possible with more informed allocation of resources. At the same time, there has been a change in the way population health and its determinants are quantified, with a much closer integration of the quantitative population sciences (such as epidemiology, demography and health economics) to strengthen and broaden the evidence base for healthcare policy.

Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000

Background Smoking is a risk factor for several diseases and has been increasing in many developing countries. Our aim was to estimate global and regional mortality in 2000 caused by smoking, including an analysis of uncertainty. Methods Following the methods of Peto and colleagues, we used lung-cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking risk. Never-smoker lung-cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase II, and the retrospective proportional mortality analysis of Liu and colleagues in China. Relative risks were corrected for confounding and extrapolation to other regions. Results We estimated that in 2000, 4.83 (uncertainty range 3.94-5.93) million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking; 2.41 (1.80-3.15) million in developing countries and 2.43 (2.13-2.78) million in industrialised countries. 3.84 million of these deaths were in men. The leading causes of death from smoking were cardiovascular diseases (1.69 million deaths), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.97 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.85 million deaths). Interpretation Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000. In view of the expected demographic and epidemiological transitions and current smoking patterns in the developing world, the health loss due to smoking will grow even larger unless effective interventions and policies that reduce smoking among men and prevent increases among women in developing countries are implemented.

Earnings management in response to the introduction of the Australian gold tax

Earnings from gold mining in Australia remained tax-exempt for almost seven decades until January 1, 1991. In the early 1980s, rapid economic prosperity induced by escalated gold prices brought the Australian gold-mining industry under intense political scrutiny. Using a variant of the modified Jones model, this paper provides evidence of significant downward earnings management by Australian gold-mining firms, which is consistent with their attempts to mitigate political costs during the period from June 1985 to May 1988. In contrast, test of earnings management over a similar period in a control sample of Canadian gold-mining firms produced insignificant results. Further, empirical results are robust to several sensitivity tests performed. During the period from June 1988 to December 1990, the Australian firms were found to have engaged in economic earnings management. This is consistent with the sample firms' incentive of maximizing economic earnings immediately prior to the introduction of income tax on gold mining. The findings of this study help to understand the impact of earnings management on the efficient resource allocation in an economy. They also contribute toward understanding the linkage between regulation of accounting for special purposes and general-purpose financial. reporting.