Trends in the incidence, severity, and short-term outcome of stroke in Perth, Western Australia

Background and Purpose-This report describes trends in the key indices of cerebrovascular disease over 6 years from the end of the 1980s in a geographically defined segment of the city of Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Identical methods were used to find and assess all cases of suspected stroke in a population of approximately 134 000 residents in a triangular area of the northern suburbs of Perth. Case fatality was measured as vital status at 28 days after the onset of symptoms. Data for first-ever strokes and for all strokes for equivalent periods of 12 months in 1989-1990 and 1995-1996 were compared by age-standardized rates and proportions and Poisson regression. Results-There were 355 strokes in 328 patients and 251 first-ever strokes (71%) for 1989-1990 and 290 events in 281 patients and 213 first-ever strokes (73%) for 1995-1996. In Poisson models including age and period, overall trends in the incidence of both first-ever strokes (rate ratio = 0.75; 95% confidence limits, 0.63, 0.90) and all strokes (rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence limits, 0.62, 0.85) were obviously significant, but only the changes in men were independently significant. Case fatality did not change, and the balance between hemorrhagic and occlusive strokes in 1995-1996 was almost indistinguishable from that observed in 1989-1990. Conclusions-Our results, which are the only longitudinal population-based data available for Australia for key indices of stroke, suggest that it is a change in the frequency of stroke, rather than its outcome, that is chiefly responsible nationally for the fall in mortality from cerebrovascular disease.

An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Stimulating dormancy release and emergence of annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum) seeds using short-term hydrated storage in darkness

Experiments were performed to determine whether the dormancy release effect of hydrated storage in darkness (dark-stratification) is common amongst annual ryegrass populations and has the potential to occur under field conditions. Dormant seeds from all populations tested (22) became sensitive to light during dark-stratification, enabling them to germinate when subsequently exposed to light. Under controlled temperature (25/15degreesC), light (12-h photoperiod), and hydration (solidified agar-water) conditions, more seeds germinated by 28 days if the first 14 days were in darkness followed by exposure to light for 12 h per day than if they were exposed to light throughout or darkness throughout. Constraint over the conditions imposed during dark-stratification and germination was gradually reduced to investigate whether the dormancy release effect was diminished. Dark-stratification was effective in promoting germination when performed under natural diurnal temperatures, and burial in moist soil provided suitable conditions for dark-stratification to occur. The surface of moist soil, with natural diurnal temperatures and sunlight, was suitable for germination of dark-stratified seeds. Dark-stratification is a quick and effective means to enhance the sensitivity of dormant annual ryegrass seeds to light, enabling the majority of the population to germinate. However, large quantities of light are required to promote germination of dark-stratified seeds, so buried seeds must be moved to the soil surface to allow exposure to adequate light for germination.

An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Short-term beta-hydroxy-beta-methylbutyrate supplementation does not reduce symptoms of eccentric muscle damage

Purpose: We examined the effects of short-term beta -hydroxy-beta -methylbutyrate (HIM) supplementation on symptoms of muscle damage following an acute bout of eccentric exercise. Methods: Non-resistance trained subjects were randomly assigned to a HMB supplement group (HMB, 40mg/kg bodyweight/day, n = 8) or placebo group (CON, n = 9). Supplementation commenced 6 days prior to a bout of 24 maximal isokinetic eccentric contractions of the elbow flexors and continued throughout post-testing. Muscle soreness, upper arm girth, and torque measures were assessed pre-exercise, 15 min post-exercise, and 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, and 10 days post-exercise. Results: No pre-test differences between HMB and CON groups were identified, and both performed a similar amount of eccentric work during the main eccentric exercise bout (p > .05). HMB supplementation had no effect on swelling, muscle soreness, or torque following the damaging eccentric exercise bout (p > .05). Conclusion: Compared to a placebo condition, short-term supplementation with 40mg/kg bodyweight/day of HMB had no beneficial effect on a range of symptoms associated with eccentric muscle damage. If HMB can produce an ergogenic response, a longer pre-exercise supplementation period may be necessary.

Short-term autocorrelation in Australian equities

This paper examines the statistical and economic significance of short-term autocorrelation in Australian equities. We document large negative first-order autocorrelation in individual stock returns. Preliminary results suggest this autocorrelation is economically significant, as two simple trading strategies based on the autocorrelation structure appear to yield large risk-adjusted returns. Further analysis, however, shows that these results are driven by the inclusion of small-capitalisation and low-priced stocks which are vulnerable to a number of market-microstructure-related problems. After revising the dataset to mitigate these problems, little evidence of economic significance remains.

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.