Ross River virus disease in tropical Queensland: evolution of rheumatic manifestations in an inception cohort followed for six months

Objective: To describe the natural history of rheumatic manifestations of Ross River virus (RRV) disease. Design: Prospective longitudinal clinical review. Setting: North Queensland local government areas of Cairns, Douglas, Mareeba and Atherton during January to May 1998. Participants: General practice patients diagnosed with RRV disease on the basis of symptoms and a positive RRV IgM result. Main outcome measures: Rheumatic symptoms and signs assessed as soon as possible after disease onset and on two subsequent occasions (up to 6.5 months after onset). Results: 57 patients were recruited, 47 of whom were reviewed three times (at means of 1.1, 2.4 and 3.6 months after disease onset). Results are reported for these 47: 46 (98%) complained of joint pain at first review, with the ankles, wrists, fingers, knees and metacarpophalangeal joints (II-IV) most commonly involved. Prevalence of joint pain decreased progressively on second and third reviews, both overall (92% and 68% of patients, respectively), and in the five joints most commonly affected. The prevalence of other common rheumatic symptoms and signs, and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, also progressively declined over the three reviews. Conclusions: Earlier studies may have overestimated the prevalence and duration of symptoms in RRV disease. Progressive resolution over 3-6 months appears usual.

A probabilistic analysis of Clostridium perfringens growth during food service operations

The purpose of this study was threefold: first, the study was designed to illustrate the use of data and information collected in food safety surveys in a quantitative risk assessment. In this case, the focus was on the food service industry; however, similar data from other parts of the food chain could be similarly incorporated. The second objective was to quantitatively describe and better understand the role that the food service industry plays in the safety of food. The third objective was to illustrate the additional decision-making information that is available when uncertainty and variability are incorporated into the modelling of systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Determination of regional flow by use of intravascular PET tracers: Microvascular theory and experimental validation for pig livers

Today, the standard approach for the kinetic analysis of dynamic PET studies is compartment models, in which the tracer and its metabolites are confined to a few well-mixed compartments. We examine whether the standard model is suitable for modern PET data or whether theories including more physiologic realism can advance the interpretation of dynamic PET data. A more detailed microvascular theory is developed for intravascular tracers in single-capillary and multiple-capillary systems. The microvascular models, which account for concentration gradients in capillaries, are validated and compared with the standard model in a pig liver study. Methods: Eight pigs underwent a 5-min dynamic PET study after O-15-carbon monoxide inhalation. Throughout each experiment, hepatic arterial blood and portal venous blood were sampled, and flow was measured with transit-time flow meters. The hepatic dual-inlet concentration was calculated as the flow-weighted inlet concentration. Dynamic PET data were analyzed with a traditional single-compartment model and 2 microvascular models. Results: Microvascular models provided a better fit of the tissue activity of an intravascular tracer than did the compartment model. In particular, the early dynamic phase after a tracer bolus injection was much improved. The regional hepatic blood flow estimates provided by the microvascular models (1.3 +/- 0.3 mL min(-1) mL(-1) for the single-capillary model and 1.14 +/- 0.14 min(-1) mL(-1) for the multiple-capillary model) (mean +/- SEM mL of blood min(-1) mL of liver tissue(-1)) were in agreement with the total blood flow measured by flow meters and normalized to liver weight (1.03 +/- 0.12 mL min(-1) mL(-1)). Conclusion: Compared with the standard compartment model, the 2 microvascular models provide a superior description of tissue activity after an intravascular tracer bolus injection. The microvascular models include only parameters with a clear-cut physiologic interpretation and are applicable to capillary beds in any organ. In this study, the microvascular models were validated for the liver and provided quantitative regional flow estimates in agreement with flow measurements.

Escalation of Drug Use in Early-Onset Cannabis Users vs Co-twin Controls

Context Previous studies have reported that early initiation of cannabis (marijuana) use is a significant risk factor for other drug use and drug-related problems. Objective To examine whether the association between early cannabis use and subsequent progression to use of other drugs and drug abuse/dependence persists after controlling for genetic and shared environmental influences. Design Cross-sectional survey conducted in 1996-2000 among an Australian national volunteer sample of 311 young adult (median age, 30 years) monozygotic and dizygotic same-sex twin pairs discordant for early cannabis use (before age 17 years). Main Outcome Measures Self-reported subsequent nonmedical use of prescription sedatives, hallucinogens, cocaine/other stimulants, and opioids; abuse or dependence on these drugs (including cannabis abuse/dependence); and alcohol dependence. Results Individuals who used cannabis by age 17 years had odds of other drug use, alcohol dependence, and drug abuse/dependence that were 2.1 to 5.2 times higher than those of their co-twin, who did not use cannabis before age 17 years. Controlling for known risk factors (early-onset alcohol or tobacco use, parental conflict/separation, childhood sexual abuse, conduct disorder, major depression, and social anxiety) had only negligible effects on these results. These associations did not differ significantly between monozygotic and dizygotic twins. Conclusions Associations between early cannabis use and later drug use and abuse/dependence cannot solely be explained by common predisposing genetic or shared environmental factors. The association may arise from the effects of the peer and social context within which cannabis is used and obtained. In particular, early access to and use of cannabis may reduce perceived barriers against the use of other illegal drugs and provide access to these drugs.

Use of an accelerated chest pain assessment protocol in patients at intermediate risk of adverse cardiac events

Objective: To determine the feasibility, safety and effectiveness of a structured clinical pathway for stratification and management of patients presenting with chest pain and classified as having intermediate risk of adverse cardiac outcomes in the subsequent six months. Design: Prospective clinical audit. Participants and setting: 630 consecutive patients who presented to the emergency department of a metropolitan tertiary care hospital between January 2000 and June 2001 with chest pain and intermediate-risk features. Intervention: Use of the Accelerated Chest Pain Assessment Protocol (ACPAP), as advocated by the Management of unstable angina guidelines - 2000 from the National Heart Foundation and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand. Main outcome measure: Adverse cardiac events during six-month follow-up. Results: 409 patients (65%) were reclassified as low risk and discharged at a mean of 14 hours after assessment in the chest pain unit. None had missed myocardial infarctions, while three (1%) had cardiac events at six months (all elective revascularisation procedures, with no readmissions with acute coronary syndromes). Another 110 patients (17%) were reclassified as high risk, and 21 (19%) of these had cardiac events (mainly revascularisations) by six months. Patients who were unable to exercise or had non-diagnostic exercise stress test results (equivocal risk) had an intermediate cardiac event rate (8%). Conclusions: This study validates use of ACPAP. The protocol eliminated missed myocardial infarction; allowed early, safe discharge of low-risk patients; and led to early identification and management of high-risk patients.

Use of confocal scanning laser microscopy to measure the concentrations of aerial and penetrative hyphae during growth of Rhizopus oligosporus on a solid surface

In order to develop a method for use in investigations of spatial biomass distribution in solid-state fermentation systems, confocal scanning laser microscopy was used to determine the concentrations of aerial and penetrative biomass against height and depth above and below the substrate surface, during growth of Rhizopus oligosporus on potato dextrose agar. Penetrative hyphae had penetrated to a depth of 0.445 cm by 64 h and showed rhizoid morphology, in which the maximum biomass concentration, of 4.45 mg dry wt cm(-3), occurred at a depth of 0.075 cm. For aerial biomass the maximum density of 39.54 mg dry wt(-3) occurred at the substrate surface. For both aerial and penetrative biomass, there were two distinct regions in which the biomass concentration decayed exponentially with distance from the surface. For aerial biomass, the first exponential decay region was up to 0.1 cm height. The second region above the height of 0.1 cm corresponded to that in which sporangiophores dominated. This work lays the foundation for deeper studies into what controls the growth of fungal hyphae above and below the surfaces of solid substrates. (C) Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Use of confocal microscopy to follow the development of penetrative hyphae during growth of Rhizopus oligosporus in an artificial solid-state fermentation system

Two methods were compared for determining the concentration of penetrative biomass during growth of Rhizopus oligosporus on an artificial solid substrate consisting of an inert gel and starch as the sole source of carbon and energy. The first method was based on the use of a hand microtome to make sections of approximately 0.2- to 0.4-mm thickness parallel to the substrate surface and the determination of the glucosamine content in each slice. Use of glucosamine measurements to estimate biomass concentrations was shown to be problematic due to the large variations in glucosamine content with mycelial age. The second method was a novel method based on the use of confocal scanning laser microscopy to estimate the fractional volume occupied by the biomass. Although it is not simple to translate fractional volumes into dry weights of hyphae due to the lack of experimentally determined conversion factors, measurement of the fractional volumes in themselves is useful for characterizing fungal penetration into the substrate. Growth of penetrative biomass in the artificial model substrate showed two forms of growth with an indistinct mass in the region close to the substrate surface and a few hyphae penetrating perpendicularly to the surface in regions further away from the substrate surface. The biomass profiles against depth obtained from the confocal microscopy showed two linear regions on log-linear plots, which are possibly related to different oxygen availability at different depths within the substrate. Confocal microscopy has the potential to be a powerful tool in the investigation of fungal growth mechanisms in solid-state fermentation. (C) 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.