104 resultados para robust hedging


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We used positron emission tomography (PET) with O-15-labelled water to record patterns of cerebral activation in six patients with Parkinson's disease (PD), studied when clinically off and after turning on as a result of dopaminergic stimulation. They were asked to imagine a Finger opposition movement performed with their right hand. externally paced at a rate of 1 Hz. Trials alternating between motor imagery and rest were measured. A pilot study of three age-matched controls was also performed. We chose the task as a robust method of activating the supplementary motor area (SMA), defects of which have been reported in PD. The PD patients showed normal de-rees of activation of the SMA (proper) when both off and on. Significant activation with imagining movement also occurred in the ipsilateral inferior parietal cortex (both off and when on) and ipsilateral premotor cortex (when off only). The patients showed significantly greater activation of the rostral anterior cingulate and significantly less activation of the left lingual gyrus and precuneus when performing the task on compared with their performance when off. PD patients when imagining movement and off showed less activation of several sites including the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) when compared to the controls performing the same task. No significant differences from controls were present when the patients imagined when on. Our results are consistent with other studies showing deficits of pre-SMA function in PD with preserved function of the SMA proper. In addition to the areas of reduced activation (anterior cingulate, DLPFC), there were also sites of activation (ipsilateral premotor and inferior parietal cortex) previously reported as locations of compensatory overactivity for PD patients performing similar tasks. Both failure of activation and compensatory changes a-re likely to contribute to the motor deficit in PD. (C) 2001 Movement Disorder Society.

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This paper presents cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of plasma collection via two alternative methods: whole blood collection (WBC) and erythroplasmapheresis collection (EPC). The objective of the study is to provide an answer to the question 'What is the least-cost method of plasma production'. This question is answered, both from the viewpoint of the blood collection agency (using financial CEA) and from that of 'society' as a whole (using economic CEA). We employ detailed financial data and economic survey data for collections made by a blood collection agency and to WBC and EPC donors in Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that, despite the superior yield provided by EPC, WBC is actually more cost-effective. This result is robust to thorough sensitivity analysis and arises regardless of whether an economic or financial perspective is taken. We conclude that, ceteris paribus, the cost of recruiting new plasma donors would need to be quite substantial for marginal investments in EPC to be considered cost-effective. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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[1] The physical conditions required to provide for the tectonic stability of cratonic crust and for the relative longevity of deep cratonic lithosphere within a dynamic, convecting mantle are explored through a suite of numerical simulations. The simulations allow chemically distinct continents to reside within the upper thermal boundary layer of a thermally convecting mantle layer. A rheologic formulation, which models both brittle and ductile behavior, is incorporated to allow for plate-like behavior and the associated subduction of oceanic lithosphere. Several mechanisms that may stabilize cratons are considered. The two most often invoked mechanisms, chemical buoyancy and/or high viscosity of cratonic root material, are found to be relatively ineffective if cratons come into contact with subduction zones. High root viscosity can provide for stability and longevity but only within a thick root limit in which the thickness of chemically distinct, high-viscosity cratonic lithosphere exceeds the thickness of old oceanic lithosphere by at least a factor of 2. This end-member implies a very thick mechanical lithosphere for cratons. A high brittle yield stress for cratonic lithosphere as a whole, relative to oceanic lithosphere, is found to be an effective and robust means for providing stability and lithospheric longevity. This mode does not require exceedingly deep strength within cratons. A high yield stress for only the crustal or mantle component of the cratonic lithosphere is found to be less effective as detachment zones can then form at the crust-mantle interface which decreases the longevity potential of cratonic roots. The degree of yield stress variations between cratonic and oceanic lithosphere required for stability and longevity can be decreased if cratons are bordered by continental lithosphere that has a relatively low yield stress, i.e., mobile belts. Simulations that combine all the mechanisms can lead to crustal stability and deep root longevity for model cratons over several mantle overturn times, but the dominant stabilizing factor remains a relatively high brittle yield stress for cratonic lithosphere.

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This study compared emotional Stroop interference in the emotional colour naming Stroop and the emotional counting Stroop by measuring reaction times and event-related potentials to positive, negative and neutral words. Twenty participants had ERPs recorded at 61 sites while performing both types of emotional Stroop tasks as well as congruent and incongruent conflict conditions. All participants rated stimulus emotionality retrospectively. A robust reaction time Stroop effect was observed in response latency for the traditional ‘‘conflict’’ conditions (congruent vs. incongruent) for the counting Stroop though not the colour naming Stroop task. There was also no evidence of emotional interference for either of the tasks; however, there was trend for positive interference in the colour naming Stroop. The P5 was identified as the event-related potential associated with emotional processing. For the P5 component, significant emotionality effects were evident in the emotional colour naming Stroop for latency (542 ms). There was a significant interaction between valence and hemisphere. The latency of the P5 in the right hemisphere was later for the positive words than negative and neutral. Comparable effects of valence were evident for the emotional counting Stroop for amplitude but not latency.

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1. Cluster analysis of reference sites with similar biota is the initial step in creating River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) and similar river bioassessment models such as Australian River Assessment System (AUSRIVAS). This paper describes and tests an alternative prediction method, Assessment by Nearest Neighbour Analysis (ANNA), based on the same philosophy as RIVPACS and AUSRIVAS but without the grouping step that some people view as artificial. 2. The steps in creating ANNA models are: (i) weighting the predictor variables using a multivariate approach analogous to principal axis correlations, (ii) calculating the weighted Euclidian distance from a test site to the reference sites based on the environmental predictors, (iii) predicting the faunal composition based on the nearest reference sites and (iv) calculating an observed/expected (O/E) analogous to RIVPACS/AUSRIVAS. 3. The paper compares AUSRIVAS and ANNA models on 17 datasets representing a variety of habitats and seasons. First, it examines each model's regressions for Observed versus Expected number of taxa, including the r(2), intercept and slope. Second, the two models' assessments of 79 test sites in New Zealand are compared. Third, the models are compared on test and presumed reference sites along a known trace metal gradient. Fourth, ANNA models are evaluated for western Australia, a geographically distinct region of Australia. The comparisons demonstrate that ANNA and AUSRIVAS are generally equivalent in performance, although ANNA turns out to be potentially more robust for the O versus E regressions and is potentially more accurate on the trace metal gradient sites. 4. The ANNA method is recommended for use in bioassessment of rivers, at least for corroborating the results of the well established AUSRIVAS- and RIVPACS-type models, if not to replace them.

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Butterflyfish are colourful, pan-tropical coastal fish that are important and distinctive members of coral reef communities. A successful systematic scheme and a robust phylogeny is considered essential in understanding further their biogeography and ecology, although recent cladistic treatments of butterflyfish phylogeny, based on soft tissue and bone morphology and coded at the generic and subgeneric levels, differ in character coding and subsequently tree topology. This study provides an independent test of the morphologically based hypotheses, using molecular systematic data from two partial mitochondrial gene fragments, cytochrome b (cytb) and small subunit rRNA (rrnS), for 52 ingroup chaetodontids and seven pomacanthids used to root the molecular trees. Individual gene trees were largely compatible and a combined molecular phylogeny, inferred from Bayesian analysis, was used to test alternative hypotheses suggested by morphological analyses. The tree was also used to map the latest morphological matrix in order to evaluate potential synapomorphies for various nodes defining butterflyfish interrelationships. A clade comprised of Chelmon and Coradion was sister group to other chaetodontids. Heniochus and Hemitaurichthys were each resolved as monophyletic groups, and as sister taxa Of the taxa sampled, Prognothodes was resolved as the sister genus to Chaeotodon. Of the ten Chaetodon subgenera sampled, all were monophyletic but their interrelationships differed significantly from that inferred from morphological characters. Lepidochaetodon was the most basal subgenus followed by Exornator and the remaining subgenera. Molecular data support the sister group relationship between Corallochaetodon and Citharoedus suggested by morphology, but major differences occur among the remaining more derived taxa. Chaetodon trifascialis and C. oligacanthus were resolved as sister taxa adding weight to the inclusion of the latter in C. Megaprotodon. Of those pairs of taxa known to hybridize and sampled with molecular data, all were closely related phylogenetically, except those hybrids known to occur in the Rabdophorus subgenus. Two base changes separated C. pelewensis from C. paucifasciatus which have been regarded previously as a single species. Cytb provided greater resolution than rrnS and will likely provide additional resolution with greater taxon sampling.

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When two targets are presented in rapid succession, identification of the first target is nearly perfect while identification of the second is severely impaired at shorter inter-target lags, and then gradually improves as lag increases. This second-target deficit is known as the attentional blink (AB). Numerous studies have implicated competition for access to higher-order processing mechanisms as the primary cause of the AB. However, relatively few studies have directly examined how the AB modulates activity in specific brain areas. To this end, we used fMRI to measure activation in the occipital and parietal cortices (including V1, V2, and area MT) during an AB task. Participants were presented with an initial target of oriented line segments embedded in a central stream of letter distractors. This central target was followed 100 - 700 ms later by a peripheral ‘X’ presented at one of four locations along with three ‘+’ distractors. All peripheral items were presented in the centre of a small field of moving dots. Participants made non-speeded judgments about line-segment orientation and the location of the second target at the end of a trial and to ignore all other stimuli. The results showed a robust AB characterised by a linear improvement in second-target accuracy as lag increased. This pattern of behavioural results was mirrored by changes in activation patterns across a number of visual areas indicating robust modulation of brain activity by the AB.

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Background: The relationship between anthropometric indices and risk of basal cell carcinoma ( BCC) is largely unknown. We aimed to examine the association between anthropometric measures and development of BCC and to demonstrate whether adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines for body mass index, waist circumference, and waist/ hip ratio was associated with risk of BCC, independent of sun exposure. Methods: Study participants were participants in a community- based skin cancer prevention trial in Nambour, a town in southeast Queensland ( latitude 26 degrees S). In 1992, height, weight, and waist and hip circumferences were measured for all 1621 participants and weight was remeasured at the end of the trial in 1996. Prevalence proportion ratios were calculated using a log- binomial model to estimate the risk of BCC prior to or prevalent in 1992, while Poisson regression with robust error variances was used to estimate the relative risk of BCC during the follow- up period. Results: At baseline, 94 participants had a current BCC, and 202 had a history of BCC. During the 5- year follow- up period, 179 participants developed one or more new BCCs. We found no significant association between any of the anthropometric measures or indices and risk of BCC after controlling for potential confounding factors including sun exposure. There was a suggestion that short- term weight gain may increase the risk of developing BCC for women only. Conclusion: Adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines for body mass index, waist circumference and waist/ hip ratio is not significantly associated with occurrence of basal cell carcinomas of the skin.

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An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

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The humpback whales that migrate along the east coast of Australia were hunted to near-extinction in the 1950s and early 1960s. Two independent series of land-based surveys conducted over the last 25 years during the whales’ northward migration along the Australian coastline have demonstrated a rapid increase in the size of the population. In 2004 we conducted a survey of the migratory population as a continuation of these series of surveys. Two methods of data analysis were used in line with the previous surveys, both for calculation of absolute and relative abundance. We consider the best estimates for 2004 to be 7,090 ± 660 (95% CI) whales with an annual rate of increase of 10.6 ± 0.5% (95% CI) for 1987 – 2004. The rate of increase agrees with those previously obtained for this population and demonstrates the continuation of a strong post-exploitation recovery. While there are still some uncertainties concerning the absolute abundance estimate and structure of this population, the rate of annual increase should be independent of these and highly robust.

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Issues of boundary maintenance are implicit in all studies of national identity. By definition, national communities consist of those who are included but surrounded (literally or metaphorically) by those who are excluded. Most extant research on national identity explores criteria for national membership largely in terms of official or public definitions described, for example, in citizenship and immigration laws or in texts of popular culture. We know much less about how ordinary people in various nations reason about these issues. An analysis of cross-national (N = 23) survey data from the 1995 International Social Science Program reveals a core pattern in most of the countries studied. Respondents were asked how important various criteria were in being 'truly' a member of a particular nation. Exploratory factor analysis shows that these items cluster in terms of two underlying dimensions. Ascriptive/objectivist criteria relating to birth, religion and residence can be distinguished from civic/voluntarist criteria relating to subjective feelings of membership and belief in core institutions. In most nations the ascriptive/objectivist dimension of national identity was more prominent than the subjective civic/voluntarist dimension. Taken overall, these findings suggest an unanticipated homogeneity in the ways that citizens around the world think about national identity. To the extent that these dimensions also mirror the well-known distinction between ethnic and civic national identification, they suggest that the former remains robust despite globalization, mass migration and cultural pluralism. Throughout the world official definitions of national identification have tended to shift towards a civic model. Yet citizens remain remarkably traditional in outlook. A task for future research is to investigate the macrosociological forces that produce both commonality and difference in the core patterns we have identified.

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The genetic and environmental contributions to educational attainment in Australia are examined using a multiple regression model drawn from the medical research literature. Data from a large sample of Australian twins are analysed. The findings indicate that at least as much as 50 percent and perhaps as much as 65 percent of the variance in educational attainments can be attributed to genetic endowments. It is suggested that only around 25 percent of the variance in educational attainments may be due to environmental factors, though this contribution is shown to be around 40 percent when adjustments for measurement error and assortative mating are made. The high fraction of the observed variation in educational attainments due to genetic differences is consistent with results reported by Heath et al. (Heath, A.C., Berg, K., Eaves, L.J., Solaas, M.H., Corey, L.A., Sundet, J., Magnus, P., Nance, W.E., 1985. Education policy and the heritability of educational attainment. Nature 314(6013), 734-736.), Tambs et al. (Tambs, K., Sundet, J.M., Magnus, P., Berg, K., 1989. Genetic and environmental contributions to the covariance between occupational status, educational attainment and IQ: a study of twins. Behavior Genetics 19(2), 209-222.), Vogler and Fulker (Vogler, G.P., Fulker, D.W., 1983. Familial resemblance for educational attainment. Behavior Generics 13(4), 341-354.) and Behrman and Taubman (Behrman, J., Taubman, P., 1989. Is schooling mostly in the genes? Nature-nurture decomposition using data on relatives. Journal of Political Economy 97(6), 1425-1446.), suggesting that the finding is robust. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Revised (EPQ-R), the Eysenck Personality Profiler Short Version (EPP-S), and the Big Five Inventory (BFI-V4a) were administered to 135 postgraduate students of business in Pakistan. Whilst Extraversion and Neuroticism scales from the three questionnaires were highly correlated, it was found that Agreeableness was most highly correlated with Psychoticism in the EPQ-R and Conscientiousness was most highly correlated with Psychoticism in the EPP-S. Principal component analyses with varimax rotation were carried out. The analyses generally suggested that the five factor model rather than the three-factor model was more robust and better for interpretation of all the higher order scales of the EPQ-R, EPP-S, and BFI-V4a in the Pakistani data. Results show that the superiority of the five factor solution results from the inclusion of a broader variety of personality scales in the input data, whereas Eysenck's three factor solution seems to be best when a less complete but possibly more important set of variables are input. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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OBJECTIVE: To establish body mass index (BMI) norms for standard figural stimuli using a large Caucasian population-based sample. In addition, we sought to determine the effectiveness of the figural stimuli to identify individuals as obese or thin. DESIGN: All Caucasian twins born in Virginia between 1915 and 1971 were identified by public birth record. In addition, 3347 individual twins responded to a letter published in the newsletter of the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP). All adult twins (aged 18 and over) from both of these sources and their family members were mailed a 16 page 'Health and Lifestyle' questionnaire. SUBJECTS: BMI and silhouette data were available on 16 728 females and 11 366 males ranging in age from 18- 100. MEASUREMENTS: Self-report information on height-weight, current body size, desired body size and a discrepancy score using standard figural stimuli. RESULTS: Gender- and age-specific norms are presented linking BMI to each of the figural stimuli. Additional norms for desired body size and discrepancy scores are also presented. Receiver operating curves (ROC) indicate that the figural stimuli are effective in classifying individuals as obese or thin. CONCLUSIONS: With the establishment of these norms, the silhouettes used in standard body image assessment can now be linked to BMI. Differences were observed between women and men in terms of desired body size and discrepancy scores, with women preferring smaller sizes. The figural stimuli are a robust technique for classifying individuals as obese or thin.

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This study describes the developmental changes in pulmonary surfactant (PS) lipids throughout incubation in the sea turtle, Chelonia mydas. Total phospholipid (PL), disaturated phospholipid (DSP) and cholesterol (Chol) harvested from lung washings increased with advancing incubation, where secretion was maximal at pipping, coincident with the onset of pulmonary ventilation. The DSP/PL ratio increased, whereas the Chol/PL and the Chol/DSP ratio declined throughout development. The phospholipids, therefore, are independently regulated from Chol and their development matches that of mammals. To explore whether hypoxia could elicit an effect on the development of the PS system, embryos were exposed to a chronic dose of 17% O-2 for the final similar to 40% of incubation. Hypoxia did not affect incubation time, absolute, nor relative abundance of the surfactant lipids, demonstrating that the development of the system is robust and that embryonic development continues unabated under mild hypoxia. Hypoxia-incubated hatchlings had lighter wet lung weights than those from normoxia, inferring that mild hypoxia facilitates lung clearance in this species. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.