66 resultados para retrospective forecast test
Resumo:
Retrospective assessment of maternal smoking or substance use during pregnancy is sometimes unavoidable. The unusually close relationship of twin sister pairs permits comparison of self-report data versus co-twin informant data on substance use during pregnancy. Information about smoking during pregnancy has been gathered from a series of mothers from an Australian volunteer twin panel (576 women reporting on 995 pregnancies), supplemented in many cases by independent ratings of their smoking by twin sister informants (821 pregnancies). Estimates of the proportion of women who had never smoked regularly (56-58%), who had smoked but did not smoke during a particular pregnancy (16-21%), or who smoked throughout the pregnancy (16-18%), were in good agreement whether based on self-report or twin sister informant data. However, informants underreported cases who smoked during the first trimester but then quit (1-3% versus 7-9% by self-report). Women who smoked throughout pregnancy (by informant report) rarely denied a history of regular smoking (
Resumo:
This paper reports a study that explored a new construct: climate of fear. We hypothesised that climate of fear would vary across work sites within organisations, but not across organisations. This is in contrast a to measures of organisational culture, which were expected to vary both within and across organisations. To test our hypotheses, we developed a new 13-item measure of perceived fear in organisations and tested it in 20 sites across two organisations (N = 209). Culture variables measured were innovative leadership culture, and communication culture. Results were that climate of fear did vary across sites in both organisations, while differences across organisations were not significant, as we anticipated. Organisational culture, however, varied between the organisations, and within one of the organisations. The climate of fear scale exhibited acceptable psychometric properties.
Resumo:
Chlorophyll fluorescence measurements have a wide range of applications from basic understanding of photosynthesis functioning to plant environmental stress responses and direct assessments of plant health. The measured signal is the fluorescence intensity (expressed in relative units) and the most meaningful data are derived from the time dependent increase in fluorescence intensity achieved upon application of continuous bright light to a previously dark adapted sample. The fluorescence response changes over time and is termed the Kautsky curve or chlorophyll fluorescence transient. Recently, Strasser and Strasser (1995) formulated a group of fluorescence parameters, called the JIP-test, that quantify the stepwise flow of energy through Photosystem II, using input data from the fluorescence transient. The purpose of this study was to establish relationships between the biochemical reactions occurring in PS II and specific JIP-test parameters. This was approached using isolated systems that facilitated the addition of modifying agents, a PS II electron transport inhibitor, an electron acceptor and an uncoupler, whose effects on PS II activity are well documented in the literature. The alteration to PS II activity caused by each of these compounds could then be monitored through the JIP-test parameters and compared and contrasted with the literature. The known alteration in PS II activity of Chenopodium album atrazine resistant and sensitive biotypes was also used to gauge the effectiveness and sensitivity of the JIP-test. The information gained from the in vitro study was successfully applied to an in situ study. This is the first in a series of four papers. It shows that the trapping parameters of the JIP-test were most affected by illumination and that the reduction in trapping had a run-on effect to inhibit electron transport. When irradiance exposure proceeded to photoinhibition, the electron transport probability parameter was greatly reduced and dissipation significantly increased. These results illustrate the advantage of monitoring a number of fluorescence parameters over the use of just one, which is often the case when the F-V/F-M ratio is used.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to examine the development of six leader-athletes. In-depth qualitative interviews were used to explore the various activities that leader athletes engaged in from an early age as well as the roles and influences that peers, coaches, and parents played within these activities. Results indicated that leadership development in sport focused on developing four central components: high skill, strong work ethic, enriched cognitive sport knowledge, and good rapport with people. The types of activities engaged in throughout development as well as receiving feedback, acknowledgement, support, cognitive engagement, mature conversations with adults, and physical encounters with older peers are important social influences that can play an instrumental role in the formation of these four central tenets.
Resumo:
Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.
Resumo:
This study compares the performance of the Quickscreen and Default protocols of the ILO-96 Otodynamics Analyzer in recording transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAEs) from adults using clinical decision analysis. Data were collected from 25 males (mean age = 29.0 years, SD = 6.8) and 35 females (mean age = 28.1 years, SD = 9.6). The results showed that the mean signal-to-noise ratios obtained from the Quickscreen were significantly greater than those from the Default protocol at 1,2, and 4 kHz. The comparison of the performance of the two protocols, based on the results using receiver operating characteristics curves, revealed a higher performance of the Quickscreen than the Default protocol at 1 and 4 kHz but not at 2 kHz. In view of the enhanced performance of the Quickscreen over the Default protocol in general, the routine use of the Default protocol for testing adults in audiology clinics should be reconsidered.