Prediction of mortality using dobutamine echocardiography

OBJECTIVES We sought to find out whether dobutamine echocardiography (DbE) could provide independent prediction of total and cardiac mortality, incremental to clinical and angiographic variables. BACKGROUND Existing outcome studies with DbE have examined composite end points, rather than death, over a relatively short follow-up. METHODS Clinical and stress data were collected in 3,156 patients (age 63 +/- 12 years, 1,801 men) undergoing DbE. Significant stenoses (>50% diameter) were identified in 70% of 1,073 patients undergoing coronary angiography. Total and cardiac mortality were identified over nine years of follow-up (mean 3.8 +/- 1.9). Cox models were used to analyze the effect of ischemia and other variables, independent of other determinants of mortality. RESULTS The dobutamine echocardiogram was abnormal in 1,575 patients (50%). Death occurred in 716 patients (23%), 259 of whom (8%) were thought to have died from cardiac causes. Patients with normal DbE had a total mortality of 8% per year and a cardiac mortality of 1% per year over the first four years of follow-up. Ischemia and the extent of abnormal wall motion were independent predictors of cardiac death, together with age and heart failure. In sequential Cox models, the predictive power of clinical data alone (model chi-square 115) was strengthened by adding the resting left ventricular function (model chi-square 138) and the results of DbE (model chi-square 181). In the subgroup undergoing coronary angiography, the power of the model was increased to a minor degree by the addition of coronary anatomy data. CONCLUSIONS Dobutamine echocardiography is an independent predictor of death, incremental to other data. While a normal dobutamine echocardiogram predicts low risk of cardiac death ton the order of 1% per year), this risk increases with the extent of abnormal wall motion at rest and stress, (J Am Coil Cardiol 2001;37:754-60) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.

Prediction of many new exons and introns in Plasmodium falciparum chromosome 2

The current prediction or genes in the Plasmodium falciparum genome database relies upon a limited number of specially developed computer algorithms. We have re-annotated the sequence of chromosome 2 of P. falciparum by a computer-assisted manual analysis. which is described here. Of 161 newly predicted introns, we have experimentally confirmed 98. We regard 110 introns from the previously published analyses as probable, we delete 3, change 26 and add 135. We recognise 214 genes in chromosome 2. We have predicted introns in 121 genes. The increased complexity or gene structure on chromosome 2 is likely to be mirrored by the entire genome. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Are pioneer axons guided by regulatory gene expression domains in the zebrafish forebrain? High-resolution analysis of the patterning of the zebrafish brain during axon tract formation

Although the principles of axon growth are well understood in vitro the mechanisms guiding axons in vivo are less clear. It has been postulated that growing axons in the vertebrate brain follow borders of neuroepithelial cells expressing specific regulatory genes. In the present study we reexamined this hypothesis by analysing the earliest growing axons in the forebrain of embryonic zebrafish. Confocal laser scanning microscopy was used to determine the spatiotemporal relationship between growing axons and the expression pattern of eight regulatory genes in zebrafish brain. Pioneer axons project either longitudinally or dorsoventrally to establish a scaffold of axon tracts during this developmental period. Each of the regulatory genes was expressed in stereotypical domains and the borders of some were oriented along dorsoventral and longitudinal planes. However, none of these borders clearly defined the trajectories of pioneer axons. In two cases axons coursed in proximity to the borders of shh and pax6, but only for a relatively short portion of their pathway. Only later growing axons were closely apposed to the borders of some gene expression domains. These results suggest that pioneer axons in the embryonic forebrain do not follow continuous pathways defined by the borders of regulatory gene expression domains, (C) 2000 Academic Press.

Body mass index and the prediction of percentage body fat in Australian Chinese women

Background Body mass index (BMI) is frequently related to percentage body fat. Nevertheless, the relationship between BMI and fat mass/height(2) (FM/H-2), theoretically, should be more appropriate. Aim: This study seeks to evaluate the relationship between BMI and both percentage body fat and FM/H-2 in a group of Chinese Australian females. Subjects and methods: Forty subjects took part in the study and all were Chinese females resident in Brisbane, Australia. Body mass index was calculated from height and weight. Percentage body fat and fat mass were calculated from measurements of total body water. Results: The use of BMI to predict FM/H-2 accounted for double the variance of that found when BMI was used to predict percentage body fat. Conclusions: As a consequence, it is possible that the use of BMI to predict FM/H-2 and not percentage body fat in the first instance may prove to be more useful in a number of adult populations. Nevertheless, with a relatively small sample size it is difficult, if not impossible, to test the developed equations on a validation group and further investigation into the findings described in this paper needs to be undertaken.

Exploring through cover - the integrated interpretation of high resolution aeromagnetic, airborne electromagnetic and ground gravity data from the Grant's Patch area, Eastern Goldfields Province, Archaean Yigarn Craton Part B; Gravity inversion as a

The cost and risk associated with mineral exploration in Australia increases significantly as companies move into deeper regolith-covered terrain. The ability to map the bedrock and the depth of weathering within an area has the potential to decrease this risk and increase the effectiveness of exploration programs. This paper is the second in a trilogy concerning the Grant's Patch area of the Eastern Goldfields. The recent development of the VPmg potential field inversion program in conjunction with the acquisition of high-resolution gravity data over an area with extensive drilling provided an opportunity to evaluate three-dimensional gravity inversion as a bedrock and regolith mapping tool. An apparent density model of the study area was constructed, with the ground represented as adjoining 200 m by 200 m vertical rectangular prisms. During inversion VPmg incrementally adjusted the density of each prism until the free-air gravity response of the model replicated the observed data. For the Grant's Patch study area, this image of the apparent density values proved easier to interpret than the Bouguer gravity image. A regolith layer was introduced into the model and realistic fresh-rock densities assigned to each basement prism according to its interpreted lithology. With the basement and regolith densities fixed, the VPmg inversion algorithm adjusted the depth to fresh basement until the misfit between the calculated and observed gravity response was minimised. The resulting geometry of the bedrock/regolith contact largely replicated the base of weathering indicated by drilling with predicted depth of weathering values from gravity inversion typically within 15% of those logged during RAB and RC drilling.

Resolution of natural groups using iterative assignment tests: an example from two species of Australian native rats (Rattus)

Sympatric individuals of Rattus fuscipes and Rattus leucopus, two Australian native rats from the tropical wet forests of north Queensland, are difficult to distinguish morphologically and are often confused in the field. When we started a study on fine-scale movements of these species, using microsatellite markers, we found that the species as identified in the field did not form coherent genetic groups. In this study, we examined the potential of an iterative process of genetic assignment to separate specimens from distinct (e.g. species, populations) natural groups. Five loci with extensive overlap in allele distributions between species were used for the iterative process. Samples were randomly distributed into two starting groups of equal size and then subjected to the test. At each iteration, misassigned samples switched groups, and the output groups from a given round of assignment formed the input groups for the next round. All samples were assigned correctly on the 10th iteration, in which two genetic groups were clearly separated. Mitochondrial DNA sequences were obtained from samples from each genetic group identified by assignment, together with those of museum voucher specimens, to assess which species corresponded to which genetic group. The iterative procedure was also used to resolve groups within species, adequately separating the genetically identified R. leucopus from our two sampling sites. These results show that the iterative assignment process can correctly differentiate samples into their appropriate natural groups when diagnostic genetic markers are not available, which allowed us to resolve accurately the two R. leucopus and R. fuscipes species. Our approach provides an analytical tool that may be applicable to a broad variety of situations where genetic groups need to be resolved.

The Alcohol Helplessness Scale and its prediction of depression among problem drinkers

Event-specific scales commonly have greater power than generalized scales in prediction of specific disorders and in testing mediator models for predicting such disorders. Therefore, in a preliminary study, a 6-item Alcohol Helplessness Scale was constructed and found to be reliable for a sample of 98 problem drinkers. Hierarchical multiple regression and its derivative path analysis were used to test whether helplessness and self-efficacy moderate or mediate the link between alcohol dependence and depression, A test of a moderation model was not supported, whereas a test of a mediation model was supported. Helplessness and self-efficacy both significantly and independently mediated between alcohol dependence and depression. Nevertheless, a significant direct effect of alcohol dependence on depression also remained, (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrolytic kinetic resolution of terminal mono- and bis-epoxides in the synthesis of insect pheromones: routes to (-)-(R)- and (+)-(S)-10-methyldodecyl acetate, (-)-(R)-10-methyl-2-tridecanone, (-)-(R)-(Z)-undec-6-en-2-ol (Nostrenol), (-)-(1R,7R)-1,7-dime

Hydrolytic kinetic resolution (HKR) of functionalised epoxides using (salen)Co(OAc) complexes provides enantiomerically enriched epoxides and diols, which have been transformed into important insect sex pheromones. In this general approach, (-)-(R)- and (+)-(S)-10-methyldodecyl acetates from the smaller tea tortrix moth were obtained, as was (-)-(R)-10-methyltridecan-2-one from the southern corn rootworm. The (S)-epoxide obtained from undec-1-en-6-yne was transformed to (-)-(R)-(Z)-undec-6-en-2-ol (Nostrenol) from ant-lions. HKR of appropriate bisepoxides was also investigated, and transformations of the resulting bisepoxides and epoxydiols provided (-)-(1R,7R)-1,7-dimethylnonylpropanoate from corn rootworms, (-)-(6R,12R)-6,12-dimethylpentadecan-2-one from the female banded cucumber beetle, and (-)-(2S,11S)-2,11-diacetoxytridecane and (+)-(2S,12S)-2,12-diacetoxytridecane from female pea-midges. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

High resolution 3-D imaging via multi-pass SAR

Spaceborne/airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) systems provide high resolution two-dimensional terrain imagery. The paper proposes a technique for combining multiple SAR images, acquired on flight paths slightly separated in the elevation direction, to generate high resolution three-dimensional imagery. The technique could be viewed as an extension to interferometric SAR (InSAR) in that it generates topographic imagery with an additional dimension of resolution. The 3-D multi-pass SAR imaging system is typically characterised by a relatively short ambiguity length in the elevation direction. To minimise the associated ambiguities we exploit the relative phase information within the set of images to track the terrain landscape. The SAR images are then coherently combined, via a nonuniform DFT, over a narrow (in elevation) volume centred on the 'dominant' terrain ground plane. The paper includes a detailed description of the technique, background theory, including achievable resolution, and the results of an experimental study.