Impact numbers in health policy decisions

Objective: To outline the major methodological issues appropriate to the use of the population impact number (PIN) and the disease impact number (DIN) in health policy decision making. Design: Review of literature and calculation of PIN and DIN statistics in different settings. Setting: Previously proposed extensions to the number needed to treat (NNT): the DIN and the PIN, which give a population perspective to this measure. Main results: The PIN and DIN allow us to compare the population impact of different interventions either within the same disease or in different diseases or conditions. The primary studies used for relative risk estimates should have outcomes, time periods and comparison groups that are congruent and relevant to the local setting. These need to be combined with local data on disease rates and population size. Depending on the particular problem, the target may be disease incidence or prevalence and the effects of interest may be either the incremental impact or the total impact of each intervention. For practical application, it will be important to use sensitivity analyses to determine plausible intervals for the impact numbers. Conclusions: Attention to various methodological issues will permit the DIN and PIN to be used to assist health policy makers assign a population perspective to measures of risk.

Appropriate indicators for injury control?

Indicators are valuable tools used to measure progress towards a desired health outcome. Increased awareness of the public health burden due to injury has lead to a concomitant interest in monitoring the impact of national initiatives that aim to reduce the size of the burden. Several injury indicators have now been proposed. This study examines the ability of each of the suggested indicators to reflect the nature and extent of the burden of non-fatal injury. A criterion validity, population-based, prospective cohort study was conducted in Brisbane, a sub-tropical Metropolitan City on the eastern seaboard of Australia, over a 12-month period between 1 January and 31 December 1998. Neither the presence of a long bone fracture nor the need for hospitalisation for 4 or more days were sensitive or specific indicators for 'serious' or major injury as defined by the 'Gold Standard' Injury Severity Score (ISS). Subsequent analysis, using other public health outcome measures demonstrated that the major component of the illness burden of injury was in fact due to 'minor' not serious injury. However, the suggested indicators demonstrated low sensitivity and specificity for these outcomes as well. The results of the study support the need to include at least all hospitalisations in any population-based measure of injury and not attempt to simplify the indicator to a more convenient measure aimed at identifying just those cases of,serious' injury.

Public policy and the prevention of substance-use disorders

Drug prevention has traditionally focused on influencing individual attitudes and behaviours. In particular, efforts have been directed towards adolescents in the school setting. However, evaluations of school-based drug education have identified limited success. There is increasing recognition that drug abuse is one of a number of risk behaviours, including truancy, delinquency and mental health problems, which share common antecedents that begin in the early years of childhood. Furthermore, these behaviours are shaped by macroenvironmental influences including the economic, social, cultural, and physical environment. Drug prevention needs to adopt a broader perspective: with greater collaboration in related programmes such as crime prevention and suicide prevention; with greater attention to the macroenvironmental influences on problem behaviours; and with greater attention to healthy development in the first years of childhood. (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

Alterations of neocortical pyramidal cell phenotype in the Ts65Dn mouse model of Down syndrome: Effects of environmental enrichment

Mental retardation in individuals with Down syndrome (DS) is thought to result from anomalous development and function of the brain; however, the underlying neuropathological processes have yet to be determined. Early implementation of special care programs result in limited, and temporary, cognitive improvements in DS individuals. In the present study, we investigated the possible neural correlates of these limited improvements. More specifically, we studied cortical pyramidal cells in the frontal cortex of Ts65Dn mice, a partial trisomy of murine chromosome 16 (MMU16) model characterized by cognitive deficits, hyperactivity, behavioral disruption and reduced attention levels similar to those observed in DS, and their control littermates. Animals were raised either in a standard or in an enriched environment. Environmental enrichment had a marked effect on pyramidal cell structure in control animals. Pyramidal cells in environmentally enriched control animals were significantly more branched and more spinous than non-enriched controls. However, environmental enrichment had little effect on pyramidal cell structure in Ts65Dn mice. As each dendritic spine receives at least one excitatory input, differences in the number of spines found in the dendritic arbors of pyramidal cells in the two groups reflect differences in the number of excitatory inputs they receive and, consequently, complexity in cortical circuitry. The present results suggest that behavioral deficits demonstrated in the Ts65Dn model could be attributed to abnormal circuit development.