66 resultados para model selection in binary regression
Resumo:
In this paper we refer to the gene-to-phenotype modeling challenge as the GP problem. Integrating information across levels of organization within a genotype-environment system is a major challenge in computational biology. However, resolving the GP problem is a fundamental requirement if we are to understand and predict phenotypes given knowledge of the genome and model dynamic properties of biological systems. Organisms are consequences of this integration, and it is a major property of biological systems that underlies the responses we observe. We discuss the E(NK) model as a framework for investigation of the GP problem and the prediction of system properties at different levels of organization. We apply this quantitative framework to an investigation of the processes involved in genetic improvement of plants for agriculture. In our analysis, N genes determine the genetic variation for a set of traits that are responsible for plant adaptation to E environment-types within a target population of environments. The N genes can interact in epistatic NK gene-networks through the way that they influence plant growth and development processes within a dynamic crop growth model. We use a sorghum crop growth model, available within the APSIM agricultural production systems simulation model, to integrate the gene-environment interactions that occur during growth and development and to predict genotype-to-phenotype relationships for a given E(NK) model. Directional selection is then applied to the population of genotypes, based on their predicted phenotypes, to simulate the dynamic aspects of genetic improvement by a plant-breeding program. The outcomes of the simulated breeding are evaluated across cycles of selection in terms of the changes in allele frequencies for the N genes and the genotypic and phenotypic values of the populations of genotypes.
Resumo:
The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Viewed on a hydrodynamic scale, flames in experiments are often thin so that they may be described as gasdynamic discontinuities separating the dense cold fresh mixture from the light hot burned products. The original model of a flame as a gasdynamic discontinuity was due to Darrieus and to Landau. In addition to the fluid dynamical equations, the model consists of a flame speed relation describing the evolution of the discontinuity surface, and jump conditions across the surface which relate the fluid variables on the two sides of the surface. The Darrieus-Landau model predicts, in contrast to observations, that a uniformly propagating planar flame is absolutely unstable and that the strength of the instability grows with increasing perturbation wavenumber so that there is no high-wavenumber cutoff of the instability. The model was modified by Markstein to exhibit a high-wavenumber cutoff if a phenomenological constant in the model has an appropriate sign. Both models are postulated, rather than derived from first principles, and both ignore the flame structure, which depends on chemical kinetics and transport processes within the flame. At present, there are two models which have been derived, rather than postulated, and which are valid in two non-overlapping regions of parameter space. Sivashinsky derived a generalization of the Darrieus-Landau model which is valid for Lewis numbers (ratio of thermal diffusivity to mass diffusivity of the deficient reaction component) bounded away from unity. Matalon & Matkowsky derived a model valid for Lewis numbers close to unity. Each model has its own advantages and disadvantages. Under appropriate conditions the Matalon-Matkowsky model exhibits a high-wavenumber cutoff of the Darrieus-Landau instability. However, since the Lewis numbers considered lie too close to unity, the Matalon-Matkowsky model does not capture the pulsating instability. The Sivashinsky model does capture the pulsating instability, but does not exhibit its high-wavenumber cutoff. In this paper, we derive a model consisting of a new flame speed relation and new jump conditions, which is valid for arbitrary Lewis numbers. It captures the pulsating instability and exhibits the high-wavenumber cutoff of all instabilities. The flame speed relation includes the effect of short wavelengths, not previously considered, which leads to stabilizing transverse surface diffusion terms.
Resumo:
This article is concerned primarily with an examination and comparison of select aspects of the model international consumer protection laws proposed by the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), using the Trade Practices Act 1974 (Australia) as a basis for examination and comparison. As a secondary consideration, it also broadly examines the content of, and differences between, the model laws. The motive for this article is that any future enforceable international consumer protection regime (possibly in the form of an international treaty or convention) would need to take into account the UN, EU and OECD guidelines. A cross-comparison of those model laws, and a comparison of them with the consumer protection provisions of a well established national consumer protection law, should provide a useful starting point for the development of such a regime. The 'select aspects' of the model laws in question are the various provisions of those laws which could relate to situations involving the wrong delivery or non-delivery of goods.
Resumo:
Functional genomics is the systematic study of genome-wide effects of gene expression on organism growth and development with the ultimate aim of understanding how networks of genes influence traits. Here, we use a dynamic biophysical cropping systems model (APSIM-Sorg) to generate a state space of genotype performance based on 15 genes controlling four adaptive traits and then search this spice using a quantitative genetics model of a plant breeding program (QU-GENE) to simulate recurrent selection. Complex epistatic and gene X environment effects were generated for yield even though gene action at the trait level had been defined as simple additive effects. Given alternative breeding strategies that restricted either the cultivar maturity type or the drought environment type, the positive (+) alleles for 15 genes associated with the four adaptive traits were accumulated at different rates over cycles of selection. While early maturing genotypes were favored in the Severe-Terminal drought environment type, late genotypes were favored in the Mild-Terminal and Midseason drought environment types. In the Severe-Terminal environment, there was an interaction of the stay-green (SG) trait with other traits: Selection for + alleles of the SG genes was delayed until + alleles for genes associated with the transpiration efficiency and osmotic adjustment traits had been fixed. Given limitations in our current understanding of trait interaction and genetic control, the results are not conclusive. However, they demonstrate how the per se complexity of gene X gene X environment interactions will challenge the application of genomics and marker-assisted selection in crop improvement for dryland adaptation.
Resumo:
Background and aims: Hip fracture is a devastating event in terms of outcome in the elderly, and the best predictor of hip fracture risk is hip bone density, usually measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). However, bone density can also be ascertained from computerized tomography (CT) scans, and mid-thigh scans are frequently employed to assess the muscle and fat composition of the lower limb. Therefore, we examined if it was possible to predict hip bone density using mid-femoral bone density. Methods: Subjects were 803 ambulatory white and black women and men, aged 70-79 years, participating in the Health, Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study. Bone mineral content (BMC, g) and volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD, mg/cm(3)) of the mid-femur were obtained by CT, whereas BMC and areal bone mineral density (aBMD, g/cm(2)) of the hip (femoral neck and trochanter) were derived from DXA. Results: In regression analyses stratified by race and sex, the coefficient of determination was low with mid-femoral BMC, explaining 6-27% of the variance in hip BMC, with a standard error of estimate (SEE) ranging from 16 to 22% of the mean. For mid-femur vBMD, the variance explained in hip aBMD was 2-17% with a SEE ranging from 15 to 18%. Adjusting aBMD to approximate volumetric density did not improve the relationships. In addition, the utility of fracture prediction was examined. Forty-eight subjects had one or more fractures (various sites) during a mean follow-up of 4.07 years. In logistic regression analysis, there was no association between mid-femoral vBMD and fracture (all fractures), whereas a 1 SD increase in hip BMD was associated with reduced odds for fracture of similar to60%. Conclusions: These results do not support the use of CT-derived mid-femoral vBMD or BMC to predict DXA-measured hip bone mineral status, irrespective of race or sex in older adults. Further, in contrast to femoral neck and trochanter BMD, mid-femur vBMD was not able to predict fracture (all fractures). (C) 2003, Editrice Kurtis.