Stochastic structure and individual-tree growth models

The majority of past and current individual-tree growth modelling methodologies have failed to characterise and incorporate structured stochastic components. Rather, they have relied on deterministic predictions or have added an unstructured random component to predictions. In particular, spatial stochastic structure has been neglected, despite being present in most applications of individual-tree growth models. Spatial stochastic structure (also called spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation) eventuates when spatial influences such as competition and micro-site effects are not fully captured in models. Temporal stochastic structure (also called temporal dependence or temporal autocorrelation) eventuates when a sequence of measurements is taken on an individual-tree over time, and variables explaining temporal variation in these measurements are not included in the model. Nested stochastic structure eventuates when measurements are combined across sampling units and differences among the sampling units are not fully captured in the model. This review examines spatial, temporal, and nested stochastic structure and instances where each has been characterised in the forest biometry and statistical literature. Methodologies for incorporating stochastic structure in growth model estimation and prediction are described. Benefits from incorporation of stochastic structure include valid statistical inference, improved estimation efficiency, and more realistic and theoretically sound predictions. It is proposed in this review that individual-tree modelling methodologies need to characterise and include structured stochasticity. Possibilities for future research are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Gender-related symptoms and correlates of alcohol dependence among men and women with a lifetime diagnosis of alcohol use disorders

This study explored gender-related symptoms and correlates of alcohol dependence in a cross-sectional study of 150 men and 150 women with a lifetime diagnosis of alcohol use disorders (AUD). Participants were recruited in equal numbers from treatment settings, correctional centres and the general community. Standardized measures were used to determine participants' use of substances, history of psychiatric disorders and psychosocial stress, their sensation seeking and family history of substance use and mental health disorders. Multivariate analyses were used to detect patterns of variables associated with gender and the lifetime severity of AUD. Men had a longer history of severe AUD than women. Women had similar levels of alcohol dependence and medical and psychological sequelae as men, despite 6 fewer years of AUD. More women than men had a history of severe psychosocial stress, severe dependence on other substances and antecedent mental health problems, especially mood and anxiety disorders. There were differences in family history of alcohol-related problems approximating same-gender aggregation. The severity of a lifetime AUD was predicted by its earlier age at onset and the occurrence of other disorders, especially anxiety, among both men and women. The limitations in the generalizability of these findings due to sample idiosyncrasies are discussed.

Trichomonas vaginalis is associated with pelvic inflammatory disease in women infected with human immunodeficiency virus

We assessed the association between the causative agents of vaginal discharge and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) among women attending a rural sexually transmitted disease clinic in South Africa; the role played by coinfection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was studied. Vaginal and cervical specimens were obtained to detect Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Chlamydia trachomatis, Trichomonas vaginalis, and bacterial vaginosis. HIV-1 infection was established by use of serum antibody tests. A total of 696 women with vaginal discharge were recruited, 119 of whom had clinical PID. Patients with trichomoniasis had a significantly higher risk of PID than did women without trichomoniasis (P = .03). PID was not associated with any of the other pathogens. When the patients were stratified according to HIV-1 status, the risk of PID in HIV-1-infected patients with T. vaginalis increased significantly (P = .002); no association was found in patients without HIV-1. T. vaginalis infection of the lower genital tract is associated with a clinical diagnosis of PID in HIV-1-infected women.

Variation in cervical cancer screening by region, socio-economic, migrant and Indigenous status in women in New South Wales

The purpose of this study was to estimate the extent of association of cervical screening in NSW women with socio-economic status (SES), rurality, and proportions of non-English speaking background (NESB) and Indigenous status. Data on women who had at least one Pap test over two years (January 1998-December 1999) were obtained from the NSW Pap test Register. Each local government area (LGA) was allocated to categories of population proportions of NESB and Indigenous status, a rurality classification based on population density and remoteness, and to an SES quintile. The odds ratios (OR) of having a Pap test were estimated and confounding adjusted by multiple logistic regression analysis. Implied Pap test rates in urban NESB and in rural Indigenous women were estimated from the modelled estimates. The adjusted OR for a Pap test in large rural centres (1.14) was significantly higher than those for metropolitan or capital city residents (0.9 and 1.0 respectively). Adjusted OR for a Pap test in other rural centres (0.73) and other remote areas (0.64) were significantly lower than those for metropolitan or capital city residents. In urban populations the lowest OR were in areas with both low SES and high proportion of NESB. The lowest OR for Pap screening in rural populations occurred in the most remote areas with the highest proportion of Indigenous women. For urban NESB women the biennial Pap test rate was estimated as 50%, and for rural Indigenous women 29%, compared with the NSW average of 59%.

Relationship of interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha with muscle mass and muscle strength in elderly men and women: The health ABC study

Background. A decline in muscle mass and muscle strength characterizes normal aging. As clinical and animal studies show it relationship between higher cytokine levels and low muscle mass, the aim of this study was to investigate whether markers, of inflammation are associated with muscle mass and strength in well-functioning elderly persons. Methods. We Used baseline data (1997-1998) of the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study on 3075 black and white men and women aged 70-79 years. Midthigh muscle cross-sectional area (computed tomography), appendicular muscle mass (dual-energy x-ray ab absorptiometry). isokinetic knee extensor strength (KinCom). and isometric inip strength were measured. plasma levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) were assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results. Higher cytokine levels were generally associated with lower muscle mass and lower muscle strength. The most consistent relationship across the gender and race groups was observed for IL-6 and grip strength: per SD increase in IL-6, grip strength was 1.1 to 2.4 kg lower (p < .05) after adjustment for age, clinic Site. health status, medications, physical activity. smoking. height. and body fat. Ail overall measure of elevated cytokine level was created by combining the levels of IL-6 and TNF-alpha. With the exception of white men, elderly persons having high levels of IL-6 (> 1.80 pg/ml) as well as high levels of TNF-alpha (> 3.20 pg/ml) had a smaller muscle area, less appendicular mass. a lower knee extensor strength. and a lower grip strength compared to those with low levels of both cytokines. Conclusions. Higher plasma concentrations of IL-6 and TNF-alpha are associated with lower muscle mass and lower muscle strength in well-functioning older men and women. Higher cytokine levels. as often observed in healthy older persons. may contribute to the loss Of muscle mass and strength that accompanies aging.

Mimicry of host cuticular hydrocarbons by salticid spider Cosmophasis bitaeniata that preys on larvae of tree ants Oecophylla smaragdina

The salticid spider Cosmophasis bitaeniata preys on the larvae of the green tree ant Oecophylla smaragdina. Gas chromatography (GC) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) reveal that the cuticle of C. bitaeniata mimics the mono- and dimethylalkanes of the cuticle of its prey. Recognition bioassays with extracts of the cuticular hydrocarbons of ants and spiders revealed that foraging major workers did not respond aggressively to the extracts of the spiders or conspecific nestmates, but reacted aggressively to conspecific nonnestmates. Typically, the ants either failed to react (as with control treatments with no extracts) or they reacted nonaggressively as with conspecific nestmates. These data indicate that the qualitative chemical mimicry of ants by C. bitaeniata allows the spiders to avoid detection by major workers of O. smaragdina.

Nonoxynol-9 spermicide for prevention of vaginally acquired HIV and other sexually transmitted infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials including more than 5000 women

We aimed to determine the effectiveness of the vaginally administered spermicide nonoxynol-9 (N-9) among women for the prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), We did a systematic review of randomised controlled trials, Nine such trials including 5096 women, predominantly sex workers, comparing N-9 with placebo or no treatment, were included. Primary outcomes were new HIV infection, new episodes of various STIs, and genital lesions. Five trials included HIV and nine included STI outcomes, and all but one (2% of the data) contributed to the meta-analysis. Overall, relative risks of HIV infection (1.12, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.42), gonorrhoea (0.91, 0.67-1.24), chlamyclia (0.88, 0.77-1.01), cervical infection (1.01, 0.84-1-22), trichomoniasis (0.84, 0.69-1.02), bacterial vaginosis (0.88, 0.74-1.04) and candidiasis (0.97, 0.84-1.12) were not significantly different in the N-9 and placebo or no treatment groups. Genital lesions were more common in the N-9 group (1.18, 1.02-1.36). Our review has found no statistically significant reduction in risk of HIV and STIs, and the confidence intervals indicate that any protection that may exist is likely to be very small. There is some evidence of harm through genital lesions. N-9 cannot be recommended for HIV and STI prevention.

The Islamic/Qur'anic concept of emancipation of women according to 'Bint al-Shati', 1913-1998

A presentation and an analysis of the Islamic concept of emancipation of women as it is proposed by Bint al-Shati (1913-1998), an Egyptian specialist of Qur'anic exegesis, will illustrate her exegetical method. thereafter, some difficulties of her interpretation will be raised, shedding light on contradictions that her exegesis, which seeks to be both Islamic and modern, cannot avoid.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Women victims of assault: Age differences in victim-aggressor relationship and location

This article presents the findings from a secondary analysis of the 1991 Queensland Crime Victim Survey. Although now more than 10 years old, this survey still has validity as it remains the largest of its kind conducted in Queensland, and it is a rich source of information about the experiences of victims of violence. The study investigated how the experiences of younger female assault victims differ from older female victims in terms of their relationship with their aggressor and the assault location. The following factors were examined: whether or not the assault occurred (a) at the hands of a partner or former partner, (b) in a private dwelling, (c) in a public place, and (d) in a leisure venue away from home. Results pointed to important differences between younger and older women in terms of their experiences of violence. Teenage women reported significantly more assaults in public places compared with older women, and were less likely to be assaulted in their own dwelling. Also, trends in the data suggested that compared to older women, teenage women were more likely to be assaulted in leisure venues away from home, and were less likely to be assaulted by partners or former partners. Considering that young women are at a much higher risk than older women of being assaulted, consideration of these age differences may be helpful in the design of violence prevention strategies. In particular, more attention should be paid to the public place prevention of violence against young women.

Seedling responses of four Australian tree species to toxic concentrations of manganese in solution culture

Little is known about the responses of Australian plants to excess metal, including Mn. It is important to remedy this lack of information so that knowledgeable decisions can be made about managing Mn contaminated sites where inhabited by Australian vegetation. Acacia holosericea, Melaleuca leucadendra, Eucalyptus crebra and Eucalyptus camaldulensis were grown in dilute solution culture for 10 weeks. The seedlings ( 42 days old) were exposed to six Mn treatments viz., 1, 8, 32, 128, 512 and 2048 muM. The order of tolerance to toxic concentrations of Mn was A. holosericea congruent to = E. crebra < M. leucadendra < E. camaldulensis, the critical external concentrations being approximately 5.1, 5.0, 21 and 330 muM, respectively. The critical tissue Mn concentrations for the youngest fully expanded leaf and total shoots were, respectively, 265 and 215 mug g(-1) DM for A. holosericea, 445 and 495 mug g(-1) DM for M. leucadendra, 495 and 710 mug g(-1) DM for E. crebra and 7230 and 6510 mug g(-1) DM for E. camaldulensis. The high tolerance of E. camaldulensis ( as opposed to the sensitivity of E. crebra) to excess Mn raises concern about fauna feeding on the plant and is consistent with hypotheses suggesting the Eucalyptus subgenus Symphomyrtus is particularly tolerant of stress, including excess Mn. The results from this paper provide the first comprehensive combination of growth responses, critical external concentrations, critical tissue concentrations and plant toxicity symptoms for three important Australian genera, viz., Eucalyptus, Acacia and Melaleuca, for use in the management of Mn toxic sites.

Metformin therapy and diabetes in pregnancy

No adverse pregnancy outcomes with metformin use have been reported, except in one unmatched study. Otherwise, the studies are small and non-randomised, with the exception of one prospective, randomised controlled trial, currently under way, comparing metformin with insulin in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (the MiG trial). No long-term follow-up data for offspring of mothers receiving metformin have been published. Any woman with diabetes should be as close to euglycaemia as possible before pregnancy. In some circumstances (eg, severe insulin resistance), metformin therapy during pregnancy may be warranted. When metformin treatment is being considered, the individual risks and benefits need to be discussed with the patient so that an appropriate decision can be reached.