Introducing uncertainty into pattern discovery in temporal event sequences

Pattern discovery in temporal event sequences is of great importance in many application domains, such as telecommunication network fault analysis. In reality, not every type of event has an accurate timestamp. Some of them, defined as inaccurate events may only have an interval as possible time of occurrence. The existence of inaccurate events may cause uncertainty in event ordering. The traditional support model cannot deal with this uncertainty, which would cause some interesting patterns to be missing. A new concept, precise support, is introduced to evaluate the probability of a pattern contained in a sequence. Based on this new metric, we define the uncertainty model and present an algorithm to discover interesting patterns in the sequence database that has one type of inaccurate event. In our model, the number of types of inaccurate events can be extended to k readily, however, at a cost of increasing computational complexity.

Incompatibility of Macroscopic Local Realism with Quantum Mechanics in Measurements with Macroscopic Uncertainties

We show that quantum mechanics predicts a contradiction with local hidden variable theories for photon number measurements which have limited resolving power, to the point of imposing an uncertainty in the photon number result which is macroscopic in absolute terms. We show how this can be interpreted as a failure of a new premise, macroscopic local realism.

Intuition: Myth or a Decision-making Tool?

Faced with today’s ill-structured business environment of fast-paced change and rising uncertainty, organizations have been searching for management tools that will perform satisfactorily under such ambiguous conditions. In the arena of managerial decision making, one of the approaches being assessed is the use of intuition. Based on our definition of intuition as a non-sequential information-processing mode, which comprises both cognitive and affective elements and results in direct knowing without any use of conscious reasoning, we develop a testable model of integrated analytical and intuitive decision making and propose ways to measure the use of intuition.

Spatial Technologies: What use are they to managers of environmental lands?

This paper reviews the potential use of three types of spatial technology to land managers, namely satellite imagery, satellite positioning systems and supporting computer software. Developments in remote sensing and the relative advantages of multispectral and hyperspectral images are discussed. The main challenge to the wider use of remote sensing as a land management tool is seen as uncertainty whether apparent relationships between biophysical variables and spectral reflectance are direct and causal, or artefacts of particular images. Developments in satellite positioning systems are presented in the context of land managers’ need for position estimates in situations where absolute precision may or may not be required. The role of computer software in supporting developments in spatial technology is described. Spatial technologies are seen as having matured beyond empirical applications to the stage where they are useful and reliable land management tools. In addition, computer software has become more user-friendly and this has facilitated data collection and manipulation by semi-expert as well as specialist staff.

Adverse effects of cannabis

Cannabis is the most widely used illicit drug in many developed societies. Its health and psychological effects are not well understood and remain the subject of much debate, with opinions on its risks polarised along the lines of proponents' views on what its legal status should be. An unfortunate consequence of this polarisation of opinion has been the absence of any consensus on what health information the medical profession should give to patients who are users or potential users of cannabis. There is conflicting evidence about many of the effects of cannabis use, so we summarise the evidence on the most probable adverse health and psychological consequences of acute and chronic use. This uncertainty, however, should not prevent medical practitioners from advising patients about the most likely ill-effects of their cannabis use. Here we make some suggestions about the advice doctors can give to patients who use, or are contemplating the use, of this drug.

A state-contingent production approach to principal-agent problems with an application to point-source pollution control

Two basic representations of principal-agent relationships, the 'state-space' and 'parameterized distribution' formulations, have emerged. Although the state-space formulation appears more natural, analytical studies using this formulation have had limited success. This paper develops a state-space formulation of the moral-hazard problem using a general representation of production under uncertainty. A closed-form solution for the agency-cost problem is derived. Comparative-static results are deduced. Next we solve the principal's problem of selecting the optimal output given the agency-cost function. The analysis is applied to the problem of point-source pollution control. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Risk premiums and benefit measures for generalized-expected-utility theories

Standard tools for the analysis of economic problems involving uncertainty, including risk premiums, certainty equivalents and the notions of absolute and relative risk aversion, are developed without making specific assumptions on functional form beyond the basic requirements of monotonicity, transitivity, continuity, and the presumption that individuals prefer certainty to risk. Individuals are not required to display probabilistic sophistication. The approach relies on the distance and benefit functions to characterize preferences relative to a given state-contingent vector of outcomes. The distance and benefit functions are used to derive absolute and relative risk premiums and to characterize preferences exhibiting constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). A generalization of the notion of Schur-concavity is presented. If preferences are generalized Schur concave, the absolute and relative risk premiums are generalized Schur convex, and the certainty equivalents are generalized Schur concave.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of humanitarian relief interventions: visceral leishmaniasis treatment in the Sudan

Spending by aid agencies on emergencies has quadrupled over the last decade, to over US$ 6 billion. To date, cost-effectiveness has seldom been considered in the prioritization and evaluation of emergency interventions. The sheer volume of resources spent on humanitarian aid and the chronicity of many humanitarian interventions call for more attention to be paid to the issue of 'value for money'. In this paper we present data from a major humanitarian crisis, an epidemic of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in war-torn Sudan. The special circumstances provided us, in retrospect, with unusually accurate data on excess mortality, costs of the intervention and its effects, thus allowing us to express cost-effectiveness as the cost per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted. The cost-effectiveness ratio, of US$ 18.40 per DALY (uncertainty range between US$ 13.53 and US$ 27.63), places the treatment of VL in Sudan among health interventions considered 'very flood value for money' (interventions of less than US$ 25 per DALY). We discuss the usefulness of this analysis to the internal management of the VL programme, the procurement of funds for the programme, and more generally, to priority setting in humanitarian relief interventions. We feel that in evaluations of emergency interventions attempts could be made more often to perform cost-effectiveness analyses, including the use of DALYs, provided that the outcomes of these analyses are seen in the broad context of the emergency situation and its consequences on the affected population. This paper provides a first contribution to what is hoped to become an international database of cost-effectiveness studies of health outcome such as the DALY.

Response to price and production risk: The case of Australian wheat

A model of Australian wheat grower supply response was specified under the constraints of price and yield uncertainty, risk aversion, partial adjustment, and quadratic costs. The model was solved to obtain area planted. The results of estimation indicate that risk arising from prices and climate have had a significant influence on producer decision making. The coefficient of relative risk aversion and short-run and long-run elasticities of supply with respect to price were calculated. Wheat growers' risk premium, expected at the start of the season for exposed price and yield risk, was 2.8 percent of revenue or 10.4 percent of profit as measured by producer surplus. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Effects of preferred hand and sex on the perception of tactile simultaneity

The effects of handedness, sex and the influence of hand placement in extrapersonal space on temporal information processing was investigated by measuring thresholds for perceiving the simultaneity of pairs of tactile stimuli. Simultaneity thresholds of preferred right handed and left handed university students with left hemisphere speech representation were compared using unimanual and bimanual stimulation at three hand placements (midline, lateral and crossed). In unimanual conditions two fingers of one hand were stimulated (single hemisphere), whereas in the bimanual conditions one finger of each hand was stimulated (cross hemispheres). Bimanual minus unimanual thresholds provided an estimate of interhemisphere transmission time (IHTT) regardless of hand placement. The effects of hemispace varied with the type of stimulation. With unimanual stimulation, overall thresholds were longer at the midline placement, however, with bimanual stimulation, thresholds were longer when the hands were spatially separated (crossed and/or uncrossed). Left handers' IHTTs were 8 ms faster than those of right handers. IHTTs in males were faster than females with hands placed in lateral (by 10.8 ms) or crossed (by 9.8 ms) but not midline positions. It was concluded that the cerebral hemispheres are equally capable of discriminating temporal intervals, but that the left hemisphere predominates when there is uncertainty about location of stimulation.