Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Van der Waals-corrected density functional theory: benchmarking for hydrogen-nanotube and nanotube-nanotube interactions

Density functional theory (DFT) is a powerful approach to electronic structure calculations in extended systems, but suffers currently from inadequate incorporation of long-range dispersion, or Van der Waals (VdW) interactions. VdW-corrected DFT is tested for interactions involving molecular hydrogen, graphite, single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), and SWCNT bundles. The energy correction, based on an empirical London dispersion term with a damping function at short range, allows a reasonable physisorption energy and equilibrium distance to be obtained for H-2 on a model graphite surface. The VdW-corrected DFT calculation for an (8, 8) nanotube bundle reproduces accurately the experimental lattice constant. For H-2 inside or outside an (8, 8) SWCNT, we find the binding energies are respectively higher and lower than that on a graphite surface, correctly predicting the well known curvature effect. We conclude that the VdW correction is a very effective method for implementing DFT calculations, allowing a reliable description of both short-range chemical bonding and long-range dispersive interactions. The method will find powerful applications in areas of SWCNT research where empirical potential functions either have not been developed, or do not capture the necessary range of both dispersion and bonding interactions.

Modelling the effect of fibropapilloma disease on the somatic growth dynamics of Hawaiian green sea turtles

The effect of the tumour-forming disease, fibropapillomatosis, on the somatic growth dynamics of green turtles resident in the Pala'au foraging grounds (Moloka'i, Hawai'i) was evaluated using a Bayesian generalised additive mixed modelling approach. This regression model enabled us to account for fixed effects (fibropapilloma tumour severity), nonlinear covariate functional form (carapace size, sampling year) as well as random effects due to individual heterogeneity and correlation between repeated growth measurements on some turtles. Somatic growth rates were found to be nonlinear functions of carapace size and sampling year but were not a function of low-to-moderate tumour severity. On the other hand, growth rates were significantly lower for turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis, which suggests a limited or threshold-specific disease effect. However, tumour severity was an increasing function of carapace size-larger turtles tended to have higher tumour severity scores, presumably due to longer exposure of larger (older) turtles to the factors that cause the disease. Hence turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis tended to be the larger turtles, which confounds size and tumour severity in this study. But somatic growth rates for the Pala'au population have also declined since the mid-1980s (sampling year effect) while disease prevalence and severity increased from the mid-1980s before levelling off by the mid-1990s. It is unlikely that this decline was related to the increasing tumour severity because growth rates have also declined over the last 10-20 years for other green turtle populations resident in Hawaiian waters that have low or no disease prevalence. The declining somatic growth rate trends evident in the Hawaiian stock are more likely a density-dependent effect caused by a dramatic increase in abundance by this once-seriously-depleted stock since the mid-1980s. So despite increasing fibropapillomatosis risk over the last 20 years, only a limited effect on somatic growth dynamics was apparent and the Hawaiian green turtle stock continues to increase in abundance.

The role of Ti as a catalyst for the dissociation of hydrogen on a Mg(0001) surface

In this paper, the dissociative chemisorption of hydrogen on both pure and Ti-incorporated Mg(0001) surfaces are studied by ab initio density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The calculated dissociation barrier of hydrogen molecule on a pure Mg(0001) surface (1.05 eV) is in good agreement with comparable theoretical studies. For the Ti-incorporated Mg(0001) surface, the activated barrier decreases to 0.103 eV due to the strong interaction between the molecular orbital of hydrogen and the d metal state of Ti. This could explain the experimentally observed improvement in absorption kinetics of hydrogen when transition metals have been introduced into the magnesium materials.

Modelling oxygen diffusion and cell growth in a porous, vascularising scaffold for soft tissue engineering applications

Soft tissue engineering presents significant challenges compared to other tissue engineering disciplines such as bone, cartilage or skin engineering. The very high cell density in most soft tissues, often combined with large implant dimensions, means that the supply of oxygen is a critical factor in the success or failure of a soft tissue scaffold. A model is presented for oxygen diffusion in a 15-60 mm diameter dome-shaped scaffold fed by a blood vessel loop at its base. This model incorporates simple models for vascular growth, cell migration and the effect of cell density on the effective oxygen diffusivity. The model shows that the dynamic, homogeneous cell seeding method often employed in small-scale applications is not applicable in the case of larger scale scaffolds such as these. Instead, we propose the implantation of a small biopsy of tissue close to a blood supply within the scaffold as a technique more likely to be successful. Crown Copyright (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Steepness expansion for free surface flows in coastal aquifers

Free surface flow of groundwater in aquifers has been studied since the early 1960s. Previous investigations have been based on the Boussinesq equation, derived from the non-linear kinematic boundary condition. In fact, the Boussinesq equation is the zeroth-order equation in the shallow-water expansion. A key assumption in this expansion is that the mean thickness of the aquifer is small compared with a reference length, normally taken to be the linear decay length. In this study, we re-examine the expansion scheme for free surface groundwater flows, and propose a new expansion wherein the shallow-water assumption is replaced by a steepness assumption. A comparison with experimental data shows that the new model provides a better prediction of water table levels than the conventional shallow-water expansion. The applicable ranges of the two expansions are exhibited. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adsorption of argon on homogeneous graphitized thermal carbon black and heterogeneous carbon surface

In this paper we investigate the effects of surface mediation on the adsorption behavior of argon at different temperatures on homogeneous graphitized thermal carbon black and on heterogeneous nongraphitized carbon black surface. The grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation is used to study the adsorption, and its performance is tested against a number of experimental data on graphitized thermal carbon black (which is known to be highly homogeneous) that are available in the literature. The surface-mediation effect is shown to be essential in the correct description of the adsorption isotherm because without accounting for that effect the GCMC simulation results are always greater than the experimental data in the region where the monolayer is being completed. This is due to the overestimation of the fluid–fluid interaction between particles in the first layer close to the solid surface. It is the surface mediation that reduces this fluid–fluid interaction in the adsorbed layers, and therefore the GCMC simulation results accounting for this surface mediation that are presented in this paper result in a better description of the data. This surface mediation having been determined, the surface excess of argon on heterogeneous carbon surfaces having solid–fluid interaction energies different from the graphite can be readily obtained. Since the real heterogeneous carbon surface is not the same as the homogeneous graphite surface, it can be described by an area distribution in terms of the well depth of the solid–fluid energy. Assuming a patchwise topology of the surface with patches of uniform well depth of solid–fluid interaction, the adsorption on a real carbon surface can be determined as an integral of the local surface excess of each patch with respect to the differential area. When this is matched against the experimental data of a carbon surface, we can derive the area distribution versus energy and hence the geometrical surface area. This new approach will be illustrated with the adsorption of argon on a nongraphitized carbon at 87.3 and 77 K, and it is found that the GCMC surface area is different from the BET surface area by about 7%. Furthermore, the description of the isotherm in the region of BET validity of 0.06 to 0.2 is much better with our method than with the BET equation.

Grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation study of methane adsorption at an open graphite surface and in slitlike carbon pores at 273 K

Grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation was used for the systematic investigation of the supercritical methane adsorption at 273 K on an open graphite surface and in slitlike micropores of different sizes. For both considered adsorption systems the calculated excess adsorption isotherms exhibit a maximum. The effect of the pore size on the maximum surface excess and isosteric enthalpy of adsorption for methane storage at 273 K is discussed. The microscopic detailed picture of methane densification near the homogeneous graphite wall and in slitlike pores at 273 K is presented with selected local density profiles and snapshots. Finally, the reliable pore size distributions, obtained in the range of the microporosity, for two pitch-based microporous activated carbon fibers are calculated from the local excess adsorption isotherms obtained via the GCMC simulation. The current systematic study of supercritical methane adsorption both on an open graphite surface and in slitlike micropores performed by the GCMC summarizes recent investigations performed at slightly different temperatures and usually a lower pressure range by advanced methods based on the statistical thermodynamics.

Equilibrium adsorption in cylindrical mesopores: A modified Broekhoff and de boer theory versus density functional theory

This paper presents a thermodynamic analysis of capillary condensation phenomena in cylindrical pores. Here, we modified the Broekhoff and de Boer (BdB) model for cylindrical pores accounting for the effect of the pore radius on the potential exerted by the pore walls. The new approach incorporates the recently published standard nitrogen and argon adsorption isotherm on nonporous silica LiChrospher Si-1000. The developed model is tested against the nonlocal density functional theory (NLDFT), and the criterion for this comparison is the condensation/evaporation pressure versus the pore diameter. The quantitative agreement between the NLDFT and the refined version of the BdB theory is ascertained for pores larger than 2 nm. The modified BdB theory was applied to the experimental adsorption branch of adsorption isotherms of a number of MCM-41 samples to determine their pore size distributions (PSDs). It was found that the PSDs determined with the new BdB approach coincide with those determined with the NLDFT (also using the experimental adsorption branch). As opposed to the NLDFT, the modified BdB theory is very simple in its utilization and therefore can be used as a convenient tool to obtain PSDs of all mesoporous solids from the analysis of the adsorption branch of adsorption isotherms of any subcritical fluids.

Modelling the effects of row configuration on sorghum yield reliability in north-eastern Australia

In recent years, many sorghum producers in the more marginal (

Modeling of adsorption in finite cylindrical pores by means of density functional theory

Adsorption of argon at its boiling point infinite cylindrical pores is considered by means of the non-local density functional theory (NLDFT) with a reference to MCM-41 silica. The NLDFT was adjusted to amorphous solids, which allowed us to quantitatively describe argon adsorption isotherm on nonporous reference silica in the entire bulk pressure range. In contrast to the conventional NLDFT technique, application of the model to cylindrical pores does not show any layering before the phase transition in conformity with experimental data. The finite pore is modeled as a cylindrical cavity bounded from its mouth by an infinite flat surface perpendicular to the pore axis. The adsorption of argon in pores of 4 and 5 nm diameters is analyzed in canonical and grand canonical ensembles using a two-dimensional version of NLDFT, which accounts for the radial and longitudinal fluid density distributions. The simulation results did not show any unusual features associated with accounting for the outer surface and support the conclusions obtained from the classical analysis of capillary condensation and evaporation. That is, the spontaneous condensation occurs at the vapor-like spinodal point, which is the upper limit of mechanical stability of the liquid-like film wetting the pore wall, while the evaporation occurs via a mechanism of receding of the semispherical meniscus from the pore mouth and the complete evaporation of the core occurs at the equilibrium transition pressure. Visualization of the pore filling and empting in the form of contour lines is presented.

Population-based continuous optimization, probabilistic modelling and mean shift

Evolutionary algorithms perform optimization using a population of sample solution points. An interesting development has been to view population-based optimization as the process of evolving an explicit, probabilistic model of the search space. This paper investigates a formal basis for continuous, population-based optimization in terms of a stochastic gradient descent on the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the model probability density and the objective function, represented as an unknown density of assumed form. This leads to an update rule that is related and compared with previous theoretical work, a continuous version of the population-based incremental learning algorithm, and the generalized mean shift clustering framework. Experimental results are presented that demonstrate the dynamics of the new algorithm on a set of simple test problems.

Matching conditional moments in PDF modelling of nonpremixed combustion

The rate of generation of fluctuations with respect to the scalar values conditioned on the mixture fraction, which significantly affects turbulent nonpremixed combustion processes, is examined. Simulation of the rate in a major mixing model is investigated and the derived equations can assist in selecting the model parameters so that the level of conditional fluctuations is better reproduced by the models. A more general formulation of the multiple mapping conditioning (MMC) model that distinguishes the reference and conditioning variables is suggested. This formulation can be viewed as a methodology of enforcing certain desired conditional properties onto conventional mixing models. Examples of constructing consistent MMC models with dissipation and velocity conditioning as well as of combining MMC with large eddy simulations (LES) are also provided. (c) 2005 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of a coupled ground-surface water flow model to simulate periodic groundwater flow influenced by a sloping boundary, capillarity and vertical flows

Theoretical developments as well as field and laboratory data have shown the influence of the capillary fringe on water table fluctuations to increase with the fluctuation frequency. The numerical solution of a full, partially saturated flow equation can be computationally expensive. In this paper, the influence of the capillary fringe on water table fluctuations is simplified through its parameterisation into the storage coefficient of a fully-saturated groundwater flow model using the complex effective porosity concept [Nielsen, P., Perrochet, P., 2000. Water table dynamics under capillary fringes: experiments and modelling. Advances in Water Resources 23 (1), 503-515; Nielsen, P., Perrochet, P., 2000. ERRATA: water table dynamics under capillary fringes: experiments and modelling (Advances in Water Resources 23 (2000) 503-515). Advances in Water Resources 23, 907-908]. The model is applied to sand flume observations of periodic water table fluctuations induced by simple harmonic forcing across a sloping boundary, analogous to many beach groundwater systems. While not providing information on the moisture distribution within the aquifer, this approach can reasonably predict the water table fluctuations in response to periodic forcing across a sloping boundary. Furthermore, he coupled ground-surface water model accurately predicts the extent of the seepage face formed at the sloping boundary. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.