Regression to the mean: what it is and how to deal with it

Background Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. It happens when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean. Methods We give some examples of the phenomenon, and discuss methods to overcome it at the design and analysis stages of a study. Results The effect of RTM in a sample becomes more noticeable with increasing measurement error and when follow-up measurements are only examined on a sub-sample selected using a baseline value. Conclusions RTM is a ubiquitous phenomenon in repeated data and should always be considered as a possible cause of an observed change. Its effect can be alleviated through better study design and use of suitable statistical methods.

Effect of nitrogen supply on leaf appearance, leaf growth, leaf nitrogen economy and photosynthetic capacity in maize (Zea mays L.)

Leaf area growth and nitrogen concentration per unit leaf area, N-a (g m(-2) N) are two options plants can use to adapt to nitrogen limitation. Previous work indicated that potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) adapts the size of leaves to maintain Na and photosynthetic capacity per unit leaf area. This paper reports on the effect of N limitation on leaf area production and photosynthetic capacity in maize, a C4 cereal. Maize was grown in two experiments in pots in glasshouses with three (0.84-6.0 g N pot(-1)) and five rates (0.5-6.0 g pot(-1)) of N. Leaf tip and ligule appearance were monitored and final individual leaf area was determined. Changes with leaf age in leaf area, leaf N content and light-saturated photosynthetic capacity, P a,, were measured on two leaves per plant in each experiment. The final area of the largest leaf and total plant leaf area differed by 16 and 29% from the lowest to highest N supply, but leaf appearance rate and the duration of leaf expansion were unaffected. The N concentration of expanding leaves (N-a or %N in dry matter) differed by at least a factor 2 from the lowest to highest N supply. A hyperbolic function described the relation between P-max and N-a. The results confirm the 'maize strategy': leaf N content, photosynthetic capacity, and ultimately radiation use efficiency is more sensitive to nitrogen limitation than are leaf area expansion and light interception. The generality of the findings is discussed and it is suggested that at canopy level species showing the 'potato strategy' can be recognized from little effect of nitrogen supply on radiation use efficiency, while the reverse is true for species showing the 'maize strategy' for adaptation to N limitation. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is exercise good for you?

Physical activity can significantly reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, some forms of cancer, osteoporosis, obesity, falls and fractures, and some mental health problems. While the benefits of physical activity are clear, there is a slightly increased risk of sudden death while exercising (compared with while sedentary), especially in untrained people undertaking unaccustomed vigorous activity. Routine exercise testing yields a significant number of false-positive results, and has not been shown to prevent exercise-related acute cardiac events. There is no convincing evidence that exercise is itself associated with osteoarthritis, but significant joint injury which occurs during sport is associated with an increased risk of subsequent development of osteoarthritis.

General practitioners with special interests: risk of a good thing becoming bad?

There is a long tradition of some general practitioners developing areas of special interest within their mainstream generalist practice. General practice is now becoming increasingly fragmented, with core components being delivered as separate and standalone services (eg, travel medicine, skin cancer, women's health). Although this fragmentation seems to meet a need for some patients and doctors, potential problems need careful consideration and response. These include loss of generalist skills among GPs, fewer practitioners working in less well-remunerated areas, such as nursing home visits, and issues related to standards of care and training.

Access to death certificates: What should research ethics committees require for approval?

PURPOSE: To present and discuss the reactions of research ethics committees (RECs) in a number of countries when asked for approval Of a study requiring access to death certificates to identify the physicians signing the certificates and to send them a four-page questionnaire about medical decisions made at the patient's end-of-life that could possibly have hastened death. METHODS: A simple questionnaire were sent to the responsible national investigator in an international study (Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland) asking about the interactions between the national research group and the national/regional REC(s). RESULTS: Different laws or guidelines were used by the RECs. Denmark, the Netherlands, and Switzerland did not require an application to a REC. In Australia and Sweden, the RECs wanted changes in the research protocol, and one national research group had to refrain from publishing its results because the attrition rate became too high, probably due to the required changes in the protocol. RECOMMENDATIONS: Generally, similar demands from all RECs in relation to one project are strongly desirable. In epidemiological research, in which Voluntary completion of an anonymous questionnaire demonstrates consent, additional prior informed consent about being approached should not be required.

Cryopreservation of spermatozoa of black marlin, Makaira indica (Teleostei : Istiophoredae)

As a first step towards the development of a method for the cryopreservation of black marlin spermatozoa, this study investigated the effect of dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) concentration and pellet size on post-thaw spermatozoal motility. Spermatozoa were recovered from the spermatic duct of testes retrieved post-mortem from four adult black marlin caught in the Coral Sea spawning grounds of Australia. Undiluted spermatozoa. were stored on ice for 4 to 10 hours during transport to shore, then evaluated for motility after activation in seawater (1:10 v:v). Spermatozoa were prepared for cryopreservation in pellets by extension (1:3 v:v) in a defined fish Ringer's solution to give two final DMSO concentrations of 2.5% or 5.0%. Diluted spermatozoa were frozen directly on a dry ice block in pellet sizes of either 0.25 ml or 0.50 ml. Frozen pellets were thawed in a water bath at 40 degrees C for 60 seconds and assessed for post-thaw motility following activation in seawater. Spermatozoa recovered within 50 minutes of death and chilled on ice for 4 to 10 hours showed a mean (+/- SEM) motility immediately following activation of 91.6 +/- 7.9%. 50% of the spermatozoa remained motile for approximately 4 to 5 minutes. Following cryopreservation; mean motility declined significantly across all cryoprotectant and pellet size combinations (P < 0.001) but spermatozoa frozen in 2.5% DMSO showed higher motility than those frozen in 5.0% DMSO (P = 0.014). Pellet size had no effect on post-thaw motility (P = 0.179).

Error recovery in a hospital pharmacy

A field study was performed in a hospital pharmacy aimed at identifying positive and negative influences on the process of detection of and further recovery from initial errors or other failures, thus avoiding negative consequences. Confidential reports and follow-up interviews provided data on 31 near-miss incidents involving such recovery processes. Analysis revealed that organizational culture with regard to following procedures needed reinforcement, that some procedures could be improved, that building in extra checks was worthwhile and that supporting unplanned recovery was essential for problems not covered by procedures. Guidance is given on how performance in recovery could be measured. A case is made for supporting recovery as an addition to prevention-based safety methods.

Long-term increase in sunscreen use in an Australian community after a skin cancer prevention trial

Background. Given the public health burden of skin cancer in white populations, an increase in sun protective behavior is needed. In a highrisk community, we assessed long-term Sunscreen use among people who had participated in a randomized trial of daily Sunscreen application for prevention of skin cancer. Methods. In 1992, 1621 residents of the subtropical Australian township of Nambour were randomly allocated to either daily or discretionary sunscreen use until 1996. From 1997 to 2002, we monitored by questionnaires their ongoing sunscreen use. Results. People who had never or irregularly used sunscreen when in summer sun before the trial were more likely (P < 0.0001) to be sustaining regular application especially to their face (20% vs. 11%) and forearms (14% vs. 5%) if they had been allocated to daily, not discretionary, use of sunscreen for 5 years. Conclusions. Regular voluntary sunscreen use for skin cancer prevention can be sustained by sun-sensitive people in the long term. Habit formation appears to be an important goal for sun protection programs among those living, or on vacation, in sunny places. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Skin cancer medicine in primary care: towards an agenda for quality health outcomes

The number of skin cancer clinics functioning within Australia's primary care environment is increasing rapidly, and significant concerns have been raised about the type and quality of work done by some doctors in some clinics. Mainstream general practice is threatened by perceived fragmentation, and specialist practice in dermatology and plastic surgery is threatened by encroachment into their domains of practice. We propose an agenda of training, standards, accreditation, audit and research to ensure that skin cancer clinics provide optimal health outcomes for patients.

Task substitution: where to from here?

Meeting future health workforce needs is a challenge for all health professionals.

Electrostatically mediated specific adsorption of small molecules in metallo-organic frameworks

We investigate the interaction of ethylene and ethane with a Cu-tricarboxylate complex and show that at low loadings the lighter molecule has a higher binding energy as a result of an increased interaction with the framework Cu and stronger hydrogen bonding with the basic framework oxygens. This leads to selective adsorption of ethylene by a factor of about 2 at low pressure, which is overcome by the stronger van der Waals interaction of ethane at high loadings, explaining recent literature data. The results suggest the possibility of separation of light hydrocarbons at low pressures or in trace amounts.