Changing patterns of coronary heart disease in the hunter region of New South Wales, Australia

A population-based observational study of men acid women aged 35-69 years in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia, was conducted to assess the impact. of risk-factor modification and increased drug therapy on the trends in major coronary events and case fatality. From 1985 to 1993, there were 3006 coronary deaths and 6450 nonfatal major coronary events. Rates of death and nonfatal myocardial infarction declined, but there was an increase in hospital admissions for prolonged chess pain. Reductions in cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and increased use of aspirin can fully explain the 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4, 4.2) average annual reduction in rates of major coronary events for men and the 4.1% (95% CI 2.7, 5.5) reduction for women. In contrast, increased use of aspirin, beta-blockers, fibrinolytic therapy, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors explain less than hall of the 8.9% (95% CI 5.9, 11.8) and 6.9% (95% CI 2.7, 10.9) average annual reduction in case fatality in hospital for men and women, respectively. These trends suggest a decline in severity of coronary heart disease consistent with reductions in risk-factor levels and improved acute medical treatment. J CLIN EPIDEMIOL 52;8:761-771, 1999. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

On modifications to the long-term survival mixture model in the presence of competing risks

A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

Movement-related potentials in Parkinson's disease: External cues and attentional strategies

Hypokinetic movement can be greatly improved in Parkinson's disease patients by the provision of external cues to guide movement. It has recently been reported, however, that movement performance in parkinsonian patients can be similarly improved in the absence of external cues by using attentional strategies, whereby patients are instructed to consciously attend to particular aspects of the movement which would normally be controlled automatically. To study the neurophysiological basis of such improvements in performance associated with the use of attentional strategies, movement-related cortical potentials were examined in Parkinson's disease and control subjects using a reaction time paradigm. One group of subjects were explicitly instructed to concentrate on internally timed responses to anticipate the presentation of a predictably timed go signal. Other subjects were given no such instruction regarding attentional strategies. Early-stage premovement activity of movement-related potentials was significantly increased in amplitude and reaction times were significantly faster for Parkinson's disease subjects when instructed to direct their attention toward internally generating responses rather than relying on external cues. It is therefore suggested that the use of attentional strategies may allow movement to be mediated by less automatic and more conscious attentional motor control processes which may be less impaired by basal ganglia dysfunction, and thereby improve movement performance in Parkinson's disease.

El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Expression of the estrogen receptor-associated immunophilins, cyclophilin 40 and FKBP52, in breast cancer

The estrogen receptor alpha (ER alpha) is implicated in the development of breast cancer. The immunophilins, cyclophilin 40 (CyP40) and FKBP52, are associated with ER alpha and other steroid receptors in mutually exclusive heterocomplexes and may differentially modulate receptor activity. Since previous studies have not assessed the levels of these immunophilins in breast cancer, we examined 10 breast cancer cell lines for mRNA and protein expression of CyP40 and FKBP52 and for amplification of the CyP40 gene. In addition, 26 breast carcinomas, including seven with matched normal breast tissue, were examined for mRNA expression of both immunophilins. CyP40 and FKBP52 were ubiquitously expressed in breast cancer cell lines, but there were significant differences in their pattern of expression. FKBP52 protein levels were generally an order of magnitude greater than those for CyP40. FKBP52 mRNA expression correlated strongly with protein expression and was significantly higher in ER alpha-positive compared with ER alpha-negative cell lines. However, CyP40 mRNA expression did not correlate with protein expression, nor did expression of this immunophilin correlate with ER alpha status. Relatively high expression of CyP40 in one cell line (BT-20) could be attributed to amplification of the CyP40 gene. Both immunophilins were also ubiquitously expressed in breast carcinomas, and we demonstrate for the first time that both CyP40 and FKBP52 mRNA are overexpressed in breast tumors compared to matched normal breast controls. The overexpression of CyP40 and FKBP52, coupled with relative differences in their expression in tumors, may have important functional implications for ER alpha and other steroid receptors in breast cancer.

The effect of mammographic screening on invasive breast cancer in Western Australia

Objective: To determine whether mammographic screening has affected the presentation of invasive breast cancer in Western Australia. Design: Population-based reviews of the presentation of all invasive breast cancers diagnosed in Western Australia in 1989 and 1994. Setting: Western Australia (population 1.8 million), Active recruitment of women aged 50-69 years for mammographic screening began in 1989. Main outcome measures: Size and stage of invasive breast cancers at diagnosis. Results: From 1989 to 1994, the age-standardised incidence rose from 109 to 123 per 100 000 woman-years, based on 584 and 750 cases, respectively. The proportion of all invasive breast cancers detected as a result of a mammogram increased from 9.2% in 1989 to 34.5% in 1994. Among the cases where relevant information was recorded, the proportion of impalpable tumours increased from 7.7% in 1989 to 27.6% in 1994, and the average size of palpable tumours fell. There was an unexpected increase in the proportion of tumours that were negative on assays for oestrogen and progesterone receptors. Conclusions: A relatively simple and inexpensive clinical review has boosted confidence that the outlay of public monies required to establish and conduct screening in Australia appears likely to yield the reductions in mortality from breast cancer that would be predicted on the basis of the earlier controlled trials of mammography.

Death and readmission in the year after hospital admission with cardiovascular disease: the Hunter Area Heart and Stroke Register

Objectives: To compare outcomes one year after hospital admission for patients initially discharged with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), other ischaemic heart disease (other IHD), congestive heart failure (CHF) or stroke. Design: Cohort study. Setting: Hunter Area Heart and Stroke Register, which registers all patients admitted with heart disease or stroke to any of the 22 hospitals in the Hunter Area Health Service in New South Wales. Patients: 4981 patients with AMI, other IHD, CHF or stroke admitted to hospital as an emergency between 1 July 1995 and 30 June 1997 and followed for at least one year. Main outcome measures: Death from any cause or emergency hospital readmission for cardiovascular disease. Results: In-hospital mortality varied from 1% of those with other IHD to 22% of those with stroke. Almost a third of all patients discharged alive (and 38% of those aged 70 or more) had died or been readmitted within one year. This varied from 22% of those with stroke to 49% of those with CHF. The causes of death and readmission were from a spectrum of cardiovascular disease, regardless of the cause of the original hospital admission. Conclusions: Data from this population register show the poor outcome, especially with increasing age, among patients admitted to hospital with cardiovascular disease. This should alert us to determine whether optimal secondary prevention strategies are being adopted among such patients.

The burden of mental disorders: a comparison of methods between the Australian burden of disease studies and the Global Burden of Disease study

The national and Victorian burden of disease studies in Australia set out to examine critically the methods used in the Global Burden of Disease study to estimate the burden of mental disorders. The main differences include the use of a different set of disability weights allowing estimates in greater detail by level of severity, adjustments for comorbidity between mental disorders, a greater number of menta I disorders measured, and model ling of substance use disorders, anxiety disorders and bipolar disorder as chronic conditions. Uniform age-weighting in the Australian studies produces considerably lower estimates of the burden due to mental disorders in comparison with age-weighted disability-adjusted life years. A lack of follow-up data on people with mental disorders who are identified in cross-sectional surveys poses the greatest challenge in determining the burden of mental disorders more accurately.

The Australian Burden of Disease Study: measuring the loss of health from diseases, injuries and risk factors

This is an overview of the first burden of disease and injury studies carried out in Australia. Methods developed for the World Bank and World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study were adapted and applied to Australian population health data. Depression was found to be the top-ranking cause of non-fatal disease burden in Australia, causing 8% of the total years lost due to disability in 1996. Mental disorders overall were responsible for nearly 30% of the non-fatal disease burden. The leading causes of total disease burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) were ischaemic heart disease and stroke, together causing nearly 18% of the total disease burden. Depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden, accounting for 3.7% of the total burden. Of the 10 major risk factors to which the disease burden can be attributed, tobacco smoking causes an estimated 10% of the total disease burden in Australia, followed by physical inactivity (7%).

An outbreak of blood disease of banana in Irian Jaya, Indonesia

Blood disease of banana is substantiated by using the polymerase chain reaction for the first time from Irian Jaya, Indonesia.

Role of phosphorylation in the conformation of tau peptides implicated in Alzheimer's disease

A series of peptides corresponding to isolated regions of Tau (tau) protein have been synthesized and their conformations determined by H-1 NMR spectroscopy. Immunodominant peptides corresponding to tau(224-240) and a bisphosphorylated derivative in which a single Thr and a single Ser are phosphorylated at positions 231 and 235 respectively, and which are recognized by an Alzheimer's disease-specific monoclonal antibody, were the main focus of the study. The nonphosphorylated peptide adopts essentially a random coil conformation in aqueous solution, but becomes slightly more ordered into P-type structure as the hydrophobicity of the solvent is increased by adding up to 50% trifluoroethanol (TFE). Similar trends are observed for the bisphosphorylated peptide, with a somewhat stronger tendency to form an extended structure, There is tentative NMR evidence for a small population of species containing a turn at residues 229-231 in the phosphorylated peptide, and this is strongly supported by CD spectroscopy. A proposal that the selection of a bioactive conformation from a disordered solution ensemble may be an important step (in either tubulin binding or in the formation of PHF) is supported by kinetic data on Pro isomerization. A recent study showed that Thr231 phosphorylation affected the rate of prolyl isomerization and abolished tubulin binding. This binding was restored by the action of the prolyl isomerase Pin1. In the current study, we find evidence for the existence of both trans and cis forms of tau peptides in solution but no difference in the equilibrium distribution of cis-trans isomers upon phosphorylation. Increasing hydrophobicity decreases the prevalence of cis forms and increases the major trans conformation of each of the prolines present in these molecules. We also synthesized mutant peptides containing Tyr substitutions preceding the Pro residues and found that phosphorylation of Tyr appears to have an effect on the equilibrium ratio of cis-trans isomerization and decreases the cis content.

Early diagnosis of lymphedema in postsurgery breast cancer patients

Lymphedema is an accumulation of lymph fluid in the limb resulting from an insufficiency of the lymphatic system. It is commonly associated with surgical or radiotherapy treatment for breast cancer. As with many progressively debilitating disorders, the effectiveness of treatment is significantly improved by earlier intervention. Multiple frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (MFBIA) previously was shown to provide accurate relative measures of lymphedema in the upper limb in patients after treatment for breast cancer, This presentation reports progress to date on a three-year prospective study to evaluate the efficacy of MFBIA to predict the early onset of lymphedema in breast cancer patients following treatment. Bioelectrical impedance measurements of each upper limb were recorded in a group of healthy control subjects (n = 50) to determine the ratio of extracellular limb-fluid volumes. From this population, the expected normal range of asymmetry (99.7% confidence) between the limbs was determined, Patients undergoing surgery to treat breast cancer were recruited into the study, and MFBIA measurements were recorded presurgery, at one month and three months after surgery, and then at two-month intervals for up to 24 months postsurgery, When patients had an MFBIA measure outside the 99.7% range of the control group, they were referred to their physician for clinical assessment. Results to date: Over 100 patients were recruited into the study over the past two years; at present, 19 have developed lymphedema and, of these, 12 are receiving treatment. In each of these 19 cases, MFBIA predicted the onset of the condition up to four months before it could be clinically diagnosed. The false-negative rate currently is zero, The study will continue to monitor patients over the remaining year to accurately ascertain estimates of specificity and sensitivity of the procedure.