Prediction of promiscuous peptides that bind HLA class I molecules

Promiscuous T-cell epitopes make ideal targets for vaccine development. We report here a computational system, multipred, for the prediction of peptide binding to the HLA-A2 supertype. It combines a novel representation of peptide/MHC interactions with a hidden Markov model as the prediction algorithm. multipred is both sensitive and specific, and demonstrates high accuracy of peptide-binding predictions for HLA-A*0201, *0204, and *0205 alleles, good accuracy for *0206 allele, and marginal accuracy for *0203 allele. multipred replaces earlier requirements for individual prediction models for each HLA allelic variant and simplifies computational aspects of peptide-binding prediction. Preliminary testing indicates that multipred can predict peptide binding to HLA-A2 supertype molecules with high accuracy, including those allelic variants for which no experimental binding data are currently available.

Are we too busy to volunteer? The relationship between time and volunteering using the 1997 ABS Time Use Data

Time availability is a key concept in relation to volunteering, leading to organisations and governments targeting those outside paid work as a potential source of volunteers. It may be that factors such as a growth in female participation in the labour market and an increase in work hours will lead to more people saying they are simply too busy to volunteer This paper discusses how social and economic change, such as changing work patterns, are impacting on time availability. Using the 1997 ABS Time Use data, it identifies a predictive model of spare time by looking at demographic, life stage and employment related variables. Results confirm that those outside paid work, particularly the young, males and those without partners or children, are the groups most likely to have time to spare. These groups do not currently report high rates of volunteering. The paper concludes by questioning the premise that people will volunteer simply because they have time to spare. This is just one component of a range of motivations and factors that influence the decision to volunteer.

Methods for prediction of peptide binding to MHC molecules: A comparative study

Background: A variety of methods for prediction of peptide binding to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) have been proposed. These methods are based on binding motifs, binding matrices, hidden Markov models (HMM), or artificial neural networks (ANN). There has been little prior work on the comparative analysis of these methods. Materials and Methods: We performed a comparison of the performance of six methods applied to the prediction of two human MHC class I molecules, including binding matrices and motifs, ANNs, and HMMs. Results: The selection of the optimal prediction method depends on the amount of available data (the number of peptides of known binding affinity to the MHC molecule of interest), the biases in the data set and the intended purpose of the prediction (screening of a single protein versus mass screening). When little or no peptide data are available, binding motifs are the most useful alternative to random guessing or use of a complete overlapping set of peptides for selection of candidate binders. As the number of known peptide binders increases, binding matrices and HMM become more useful predictors. ANN and HMM are the predictive methods of choice for MHC alleles with more than 100 known binding peptides. Conclusion: The ability of bioinformatic methods to reliably predict MHC binding peptides, and thereby potential T-cell epitopes, has major implications for clinical immunology, particularly in the area of vaccine design.

Stereotypic explanatory bias: Implicit stereotyping as a predictor of discrimination

Two experiments examined whether a measure of implicit stereotyping based on the tendency to explain Black stereotype-incongruent events more often than Black stereotype-congruent events (Stereotypic Explanatory Bias or SEB) is predictive of behavior toward a partner in an interracial interaction. In Experiment I SEB predicted White males' choice to ask stereotypic questions of a Black female (but not a White male or White female) in an interview. In Experiment 2 the type of explanation (internal or external attribution) made for stereotype-inconsistency was examined. Results showed that White participants who made internal attributions for Black stereotype-incongruent behavior were rated more positively and those who made external attributions were rated more negatively by a Black male confederate. These results point to the potential of implicit stereotyping as an important predictor of behavior in an interracial interaction. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity: bridging the gap between condition and conservation

The aim of this study is to create a two-tiered assessment combining restoration and conservation, both needed for biodiversity management. The first tier of this approach assesses the condition of a site using a standard bioassessment method, AUSRIVAS, to determine whether significant loss of biodiversity has occurred because of human activity. The second tier assesses the conservation value of sites that were determined to be unimpacted in the first step against a reference database. This ensures maximum complementarity without having to set a priori target areas. Using the reference database, we assign site-specific and comparable coefficients for both restoration (Observed/Expected taxa with > 50% probability of occurrence) and conservation values (O/E taxa with < 50%, rare taxa). In a trial on 75 sites on rivers around Sydney, NSW, Australia we were able to identify three regions: (1) an area that may need restoration; (2) an area that had a high conservation value and; (3) a region that was identified as having significant biodiversity loss but with high potential to respond to rehabilitation and become a biodiversity hotspot. These examples highlight the use of the new framework as a comprehensive system for biodiversity assessment.

Predicting energy requirements in the clinical setting: Are current methods evidence based?

Estimating energy requirements is necessary in clinical practice when indirect calorimetry is impractical. This paper systematically reviews current methods for estimating energy requirements. Conclusions include: there is discrepancy between the characteristics of populations upon which predictive equations are based and current populations; tools are not well understood, and patient care can be compromised by inappropriate application of the tools. Data comparing tools and methods are presented and issues for practitioners are discussed. (C) 2003 International Life Sciences Institute.

Detecting sugarcane 'orange rust' disease using EO-1 Hyperion hyperspectral imagery

This Letter evaluates several narrow-band indices from EO-1 Hyperion imagery in discriminating sugarcane areas affected by 'orange rust' ( Puccinia kuehnii ) disease. Forty spectral vegetation indices (SVIs), focusing on bands related to leaf pigments, leaf internal structure, and leaf water content, were generated from an image acquired over Mackay, Queensland, Australia. Discriminant function analysis was used to select an optimum set of indices based on their correlations with the discriminant function. The predictive ability of each index was also assessed based on the accuracy of classification. Results demonstrated that Hyperion imagery can be used to detect orange rust disease in sugarcane crops. While some indices that only used visible near-infrared (VNIR) bands (e.g. SIPI and R800/R680) offer separability, the combination of VNIR bands with the moisture-sensitive band (1660 nm) yielded increased separability of rust-affected areas. The newly formulated 'Disease-Water Stress Indices' (DWSI-1=R800/R1660; DSWI-2=R1660/R550; DWSI-5=(R800+R550)/(R1660+R680)) produced the largest correlations, indicating their superior ability to discriminate sugarcane areas affected by orange rust disease.

Image calibration to like-values in mapping shallow water quality from multitemporal data

The applicability of image calibration to like-values in mapping water quality parameters from multitemporal images is explored, Six sets of water samples were collected at satellite overpasses over Moreton Bay, Brisbane, Australia. Analysis of these samples reveals that waters in this shallow bay are mostly TSS-dominated, even though they are occasionally dominated by chlorophyll as well. Three of the images were calibrated to a reference image based on invariant targets. Predictive models constructed from the reference image were applied to estimating total suspended sediment (TSS) and Secchi depth from another image at a discrepancy of around 35 percent. Application of the predictive model for TSS concentration to another image acquired at a time of different water types resulted in a discrepancy of 152 percent. Therefore, image calibration to like-values could be used to reliably map certain water quality parameters from multitemporal TM images so long as the water type under study remains unchanged. This method is limited in that the mapped results could be rather inaccurate if the water type under study has changed considerably. Thus, the approach needs to be refined in shallow water from multitemporal satellite imagery.

Breastfeeding duration in an Australian population: The influence of modifiable antenatal factors

Despite well-documented health benefits of breastfeeding for mothers and babies, most women discontinue breastfeeding before the recommended 12 months to 2 years. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of modifiable antenatal variables on breastfeeding outcomes. A prospective, longitudinal study was conducted with 300 pregnant, Australian women. Questionnaires containing variables of interest were administered to women during their last trimester; infant feeding method was assessed at I week and 4 months postpartum. Intended breastfeeding duration and breastfeeding self-efficacy were identified as the most significant modifiable variables predictive of breastfeeding outcomes. Mothers who intended to breastfeed for < 6 months were 2.4 times as likely to have discontinued breastfeeding at 4 months compared to those who intended to breastfeed for > 12 months (35.7% vs 87.5%). Similarly, mothers with high breastfeeding self-efficacy were more likely to be breastfeeding compared to mothers with low self-efficacy (79.3% vs 50.0%).

ANNA: A new prediction method for bioassessment programs

1. Cluster analysis of reference sites with similar biota is the initial step in creating River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) and similar river bioassessment models such as Australian River Assessment System (AUSRIVAS). This paper describes and tests an alternative prediction method, Assessment by Nearest Neighbour Analysis (ANNA), based on the same philosophy as RIVPACS and AUSRIVAS but without the grouping step that some people view as artificial. 2. The steps in creating ANNA models are: (i) weighting the predictor variables using a multivariate approach analogous to principal axis correlations, (ii) calculating the weighted Euclidian distance from a test site to the reference sites based on the environmental predictors, (iii) predicting the faunal composition based on the nearest reference sites and (iv) calculating an observed/expected (O/E) analogous to RIVPACS/AUSRIVAS. 3. The paper compares AUSRIVAS and ANNA models on 17 datasets representing a variety of habitats and seasons. First, it examines each model's regressions for Observed versus Expected number of taxa, including the r(2), intercept and slope. Second, the two models' assessments of 79 test sites in New Zealand are compared. Third, the models are compared on test and presumed reference sites along a known trace metal gradient. Fourth, ANNA models are evaluated for western Australia, a geographically distinct region of Australia. The comparisons demonstrate that ANNA and AUSRIVAS are generally equivalent in performance, although ANNA turns out to be potentially more robust for the O versus E regressions and is potentially more accurate on the trace metal gradient sites. 4. The ANNA method is recommended for use in bioassessment of rivers, at least for corroborating the results of the well established AUSRIVAS- and RIVPACS-type models, if not to replace them.

A comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific Region

PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values, and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pectinase production by solid fermentation from Aspergillus niger by a new prescription experiment

The Ordos Plateau in China is covered with up to 300,000 ha of peashrub (Caragana) which is the dominant natural vegetation and ideal for fodder production. To exploit peashrub fodder, it is crucially important to optimize the culture conditions, especially culture substrate to produce pectinase complex. In this study, a new prescription process was developed. The process, based on a uniform experimental design, first optimizes the solid substrate and second, after incubation, applies two different temperature treatments (30 degrees C for the first 30 h and 23 degrees C for the second 42 h) in the fermentation process. A multivariate regression analysis is applied to a number of independent variables (water, wheat bran, rice dextrose, ammonium sulfate, and Tween 80) to develop a predictive model of pectinase activity. A second-degree polynomial model is developed which accounts for an excellent proportion of the explained variation (R-2 = 97.7%). Using unconstrained mathematical programming, an optimized substrate prescription for pectinase production is subsequently developed. The mathematical analysis revealed that the optimal formula for pectinase production from Aspergillus niger by solid fermentation under the conditions of natural aeration, natural substrate pH (about 6.5), and environmental humidity of 60% is rice dextrose 8%, wheat bran 24%, ammonium sulfate ((NH4)(2)SO4) 6%, and water 61%. Tween 80 was found to have a negative effect on the production of pectinase in solid substrate. With this substrate prescription, pectinase produced by solid fermentation of A. niger reached 36.3IU/(gDM). Goats fed on the pectinase complex obtain an incremental increase of 0.47 kg day(-1) during the initial 25 days of feeding, which is a very promising new feeding prospect for the local peashrub. It is concluded that the new formula may be very useful for the sustainable development of and and semiarid pastures such as those of the Ordos Plateau. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychosocial sequelae of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake .2. Exposure and morbidity profiles during the first 2 years post-disaster

Background. A sample of 1089 Australian adults was selected for the longitudinal component of the Quake Impact Study, a 2-year, four-phase investigation of the psychosocial effects of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake. Of these, 845 (78%) completed a survey 6 months post-disaster as well as one or more of the three follow-up surveys. Methods. The phase I survey was used to construct dimensional indices of self-reported exposure to threat the disruption and also to classify subjects by their membership of five 'at risk' groups (the injured; the displaced; owners of damaged small businesses; helpers in threat and non-threat situations). Psychological morbidity was assessed at each phase using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and the Impact of Event Scale (IES). Results. Psychological morbidity declined over time but tended to stabilize at about 12 months post-disaster for general morbidity (GHQ-12) and at about 18 months for trauma-related (IES) morbidity. Initial exposure to threat and/or disruption were significant predictors of psychological morbidity throughout the study and had superior predictive power to membership of the targeted 'at risk' groups. The degree of ongoing disruption and other life events since the earthquake were also significant predictors of morbidity. The injured reported the highest levels of distress, but there was a relative absence of morbidity among the helpers. Conclusions. Future disaster research should carefully assess the threat and disruption experiences of the survivors at the time of the event and monitor ongoing disruptions in the aftermath in order to target interventions more effectively.

Genetic population structure of the catadromous perciform: Macquaria novemaculeata (Percichthyidae)

Genetic population structure in the catadromous Australian bass Macquaria novemaculeata was investigated using samples from four locations spanning 600 km along the eastern Australian coastline. Both allozymes and mtDNA control region sequences were examined. Population subdivision estimates based on allozymes revealed low levels of population structuring (G(st)=0.043, P<0.05). However, mtDNA indicated moderate levels of geographic population structure (G(st)=0.146, P<0.01). Phylogenetic analysis of mtDNA control region sequences (mean sequence divergence 1.9%) indicated little phylogeographic structuring. Results suggested that genotypic variation within each river population, while bring affected primarily by genetic drift, was also prevented from more significant divergence by homogenizing levels of gene flow-synonymous with a one-dimensional stepping-stone model of population structure. The catadromous life history of Macquaria novemaculeata was considered to br influential on the pattern of population structure displayed. Results were compared to the few population genetic studies involving catadromous fishes, indicating that catadromy alone is unlikely to be a good predictor of population structure. A more comprehensive suite of biological characteristics than simple life-history traits must be considered fully to allow reliable predictive models of population structure to be formulated. (C) 1997 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.