211 resultados para Prediction method


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Conventionally, protein structure prediction via threading relies on some nonoptimal method to align a protein sequence to each member of a library of known structures. We show how a score function (force field) can be modified so as to allow the direct application of a dynamic programming algorithm to the problem. This involves an approximation whose damage can be minimized by an optimization process during score function parameter determination. The method is compared to sequence to structure alignments using a more conventional pair-wise score function and the frozen approximation. The new method produces results comparable to the frozen approximation, but is faster and has fewer adjustable parameters. It is also free of memory of the template's original amino acid sequence, and does not suffer from a problem of nonconvergence, which can be shown to occur with the frozen approximation. Alignments generated by the simplified score function can then be ranked using a second score function with the approximations removed. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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Bioelectrical impedance analysis has found extensive application as a simple noninvasive method for the assessment of body fluid volumes, The measured impedance is, however, not only related to the volume of fluid but also to its inherent resistivity. The primary determinant of the resistivities of body fluids is the concentration of ions. The aim of this study was to investigate the sensitivity of bioelectrical impedance analysis to bodily ion status. Whole body impedance over a range of frequencies (4-1012 kHz) of rats was measured during infusion of various concentrations of saline into rats concomitant with measurement of total body and intracellular water by tracer dilution techniques. Extracellular resistance (R-o), intracellular resistance (R-i) and impedance at the characteristic frequency (Z(c)) were calculated. R-o and Z(c) were used to predict extracellular and total body water respectively using previously published formulae. The results showed that whilst R-o and Z(c) decreased proportionately to the amount of NaCl infused, R-i increased only slightly. Impedances at the end of infusion predicted increases iu TBW and ECW of approximately 4-6% despite a volume increase of less than 0.5% in TBW due to the volume of fluid infused. These data are discussed in relation to the assumption of constant resistivity in the prediction of fluid volumes from impedance data.

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This paper describes a hybrid numerical method for the design of asymmetric magnetic resonance imaging magnet systems. The problem is formulated as a field synthesis and the desired current density on the surface of a cylinder is first calculated by solving a Fredholm equation of the first kind. Nonlinear optimization methods are then invoked to fit practical magnet coils to the desired current density. The field calculations are performed using a semi-analytical method. A new type of asymmetric magnet is proposed in this work. The asymmetric MRI magnet allows the diameter spherical imaging volume to be positioned close to one end of the magnet. The main advantages of making the magnet asymmetric include the potential to reduce the perception of claustrophobia for the patient, better access to the patient by attending physicians, and the potential for reduced peripheral nerve stimulation due to the gradient coil configuration. The results highlight that the method can be used to obtain an asymmetric MRI magnet structure and a very homogeneous magnetic field over the central imaging volume in clinical systems of approximately 1.2 m in length. Unshielded designs are the focus of this work. This method is flexible and may be applied to magnets of other geometries. (C) 1999 Academic Press.

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Microencapsulation of lemon oil was undertaken by kneading with beta-cyclodextrin, at a beta-cyclodextrin to lemon oil ratio of 88:12 (w/w). The resulting paste samples of the complex were vacuum- or spray-dried. Ten selected lemon oil flavor volatiles (alpha-pinene, sabinene, beta-pinene, beta-myrcene, limonene, gamma-terpinene, terpinolene, linalool, neral, and geranial) in the complex were analyzed periodically after 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 min of kneading time. The results indicated that the levels of these volatiles were not significantly different (P > 0.05) irrespective of mixing time or type of the drying (vacuum- or spray-drying) used. An optimum mixing time was found to be 15 min, at which time the maximum encapsulation of lemon oil (97.7 mg/g of beta-cyclodextrin) was obtained in the complex powder.

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Objective: To compare secular trends in method-specific suicide rates among young people in Australia and England & Wales between 1968 and 1997. Methods: Australian data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and for England & Wales from the Office for National Statistics. Overall and method-specific suicide rates for 15-34 year old males and females were calculated using ICD codes E950-9 and E980-9 except E988.8. Results: In both settings, suicide rates have almost doubled in young males over the past 30 years (from 16.8 to 32.9 per 100,000 in Australia and from 10.1 to 19.0 in England & Wales). Overall rates have changed little in young females. In both sexes and in both settings there have been substantial increases in suicide by hanging (5-7 fold increase in Australia and four-fold increase in England & Wales). There have also been smaller increases in gassing in the 1980s and '90s. In females, the impact of these increases on overall rates has been offset by a decline in drug overdose, the most common method in females. Conclusions: Rates of male suicide have increased substantially in both settings in recent years, and hanging has become an increasingly common method of suicide. The similarity in observed trends in both settings supports the view that such changes may have common causes. Research should focus on understanding why hanging has increased in popularity and what measures may be taken to diminish it.

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This paper is devoted to the problems of finding the load flow feasibility, saddle node, and Hopf bifurcation boundaries in the space of power system parameters. The first part contains a review of the existing relevant approaches including not-so-well-known contributions from Russia. The second part presents a new robust method for finding the power system load flow feasibility boundary on the plane defined by any three vectors of dependent variables (nodal voltages), called the Delta plane. The method exploits some quadratic and linear properties of the load now equations and state matrices written in rectangular coordinates. An advantage of the method is that it does not require an iterative solution of nonlinear equations (except the eigenvalue problem). In addition to benefits for visualization, the method is a useful tool for topological studies of power system multiple solution structures and stability domains. Although the power system application is developed, the method can be equally efficient for any quadratic algebraic problem.

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Previous studies on tidal dynamics of coastal aquifers have focussed on the inland propagation of oceanic tides in the cross-shore direction, a configuration that is essentially one-dimensional. Aquifers at natural coasts can also be influenced by tidal waves in nearby estuaries, resulting in a more complex behaviour of head fluctuations in the aquifers. We present an analytical solution to the two-dimensional depth-averaged groundwater flow equation for a semi-infinite aquifer subject to oscillating head conditions at the boundaries. The solution describes the tidal dynamics of a coastal aquifer that is adjacent to a cross-shore estuary. Both the effects of oceanic and estuarine tides on the aquifer are included in the solution. The analytical prediction of the head fluctuations is verified by comparison with numerical solutions computed using a standard finite-difference method. An essential feature of the present analytical solution is the interaction between the cross- and along-shore tidal waves in the aquifer area near the estuary's entry. As the distance from the estuary or coastline increases, the wave interaction is weakened and the aquifer response is reduced, respectively, to the one-dimensional solution for oceanic tides or the solution of Sun (Sun H. A two-dimensional analytical solution of groundwater response to tidal loading in an estuary, Water Resour Res 1997;33:1429-35) for two-dimensional non-interacting tidal waves. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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.:Abstract-Objective: Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is widely used as bedside assessment of body composition. Body cell mass (BCM) and intracellular water (ICW) are clinically important body compartments. Estimates of ICW obtained from BIA by different calculation approaches were compared to a reference method in male HIV-infected patients. Patients: Representative subsample of clinically stable HIV-infected outpatients, consisting of 42 men with a body mass index of 22.4 +/- 3.8 kg/m(2) (range, 13-31 kg/m(2)). Methods: Total body potassium was assessed in a whole body counter, and compared to 50 kHz mono-frequency BIA and multifrequency bioelectrical impedance spectroscopy. Six different prediction equations for ICW from BIA data were applied. Methods were compared by the Bland-Altman method. Results: BIA-derived ICW estimates explained 58% to 73% of the observed variance in ICW (TBK), but limits of confidence were wide (-16.6 to +18.2% for the best method). BIA overestimated low ICW (TBK) and underestimated high ICW (TBK) when normalized for weight or height. Mono- and multifrequency BIA were not different in precision but population-specific equations tended to narrower confidence limits. Conclusion: BIA is an unreliable method to estimate ICW in this population, in contrast to the better established estimation of total body water and extracellular water. Potassium depletion in severe malnutrition may contribute to this finding but a major part of the residual between methods remains unexplained. (C) 2000 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.

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TiO2 in anatase crystal phase is a very effective catalyst in the photocatalytic oxidation of organic compounds in water. To improve the recovery rate of TiO2 photocatalysts, which in most cases are in fine powder form, the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) method was used to load TiO2 onto a bigger particle support, silica gel. The amount of titania coating was found to depend strongly on the synthesis parameters of carrier gas flow rate and coating time. XPS and nitrogen ads/desorption results showed that most of the TiO2 particles generated from CVD were distributed on the external surface of the support and the coating was stable. The photocatalytic activities of TiO2/silica gel with different amounts of titania were evaluated for the oxidation of phenol aqueous solution and compared with that of Degussa P25. The optimum titania loading rate was found around 6 wt % of the TiO2 bulk concentration. Although the activity of the best TiO2/silica gel sample was still lower than that of P25, the synthesized TiO2/silica gel catalyst can be easily separated from the treated water and was found to maintain its TiO2 content and catalytic activity.

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Hedley er al. (1982) developed what has become the most widely used land modified), phosphorus (P) fractionation technique. It consists of sequential extraction of increasingly less phytoavailable P pools. Extracts are centrifuged at up to 25000 g (RCF) and filtered to 0.45 mu m to ensure that soil is not lost between extractions. In attempting to transfer this method to laboratories with limited facilities, it was considered that access to high-speed centrifuges, and the cost of frequent filtration may prevent adoption of this P fractionation technique. The modified method presented here was developed to simplify methodology, reduce cost, and therefore increase accessibility of P fractionation technology. It provides quantitative recovery of soil between extractions, using low speed centrifugation without filtration. This is achieved by increasing the ionic strength of dilute extracts, through the addition of NaCl, to flocculate clay particles. Addition of NaCl does not change the amount of P extracted. Flocculation with low speed centrifugation produced extracts comparable with those having undergone filtration (0.025 mu m). A malachite green colorimetric method was adopted for inorganic P determination, as this simple manual method provides high sensitivity with negligible interference from other anions. This approach can also be used for total P following digestion, alternatively non-discriminatory methods, such as inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy, may be employed.

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Hydrothermal alteration of a quartz-K-feldspar rock is simulated numerically by coupling fluid flow and chemical reactions. Introduction of CO2 gas generates an acidic fluid and produces secondary quartz, muscovite and/or pyrophyllite at constant temperature and pressure of 300 degrees C and 200 MPa. The precipitation and/or dissolution of the secondary minerals is controlled by either mass-action relations or rate laws. In our simulations the mass of the primary elements are conserved and the mass-balance equations are solved sequentially using an implicit scheme in a finite-element code. The pore-fluid velocity is assumed to be constant. The change of rock volume due to the dissolution or precipitation of the minerals, which is directly related to their molar volume, is taken into account. Feedback into the rock porosity and the reaction rates is included in the model. The model produces zones of pyrophyllite quartz and muscovite due to the dissolution of K-feldspar. Our model simulates, in a simplified way, the acid-induced alteration assemblages observed in various guises in many significant mineral deposits. The particular aluminosilicate minerals produced in these experiments are associated with the gold deposits of the Witwatersrand Basin.

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Objectives. The present study was designed to test the diathesis-stress components of Beck's cognitive theory of depression and the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression in the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology. Design and methods. The research used a two-wave longitudinal design-data were collected from 65 primiparous women during their third trimester of pregnancy and then 6 weeks after the birth. Cognitive vulnerability and initial depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 1, whereas stress and postpartum depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 2. Results. There was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory, to the extent that the negative relationship between both general and maternal-specific dysfunctional attitudes associated with performance evaluation and Time 2 depressive symptomatology was strongest for women who reported high levels of parental stress. In a similar vein, the effects of dysfunctional attitudes (general and maternal-specific) associated with performance evaluation and need for approval (general measure only) on partner ratings of emotional distress were evident only among those women whose infants were rated as being temperamentally difficult. Conclusion. There was no support for the diathesis-stress component of the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression; however, there was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory.

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The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

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Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

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Realistic time frames in which management decisions are made often preclude the completion of the detailed analyses necessary for conservation planning. Under these circumstances, efficient alternatives may assist in approximating the results of more thorough studies that require extensive resources and time. We outline a set of concepts and formulas that may be used in lieu of detailed population viability analyses and habitat modeling exercises to estimate the protected areas required to provide desirable conservation outcomes for a suite of threatened plant species. We used expert judgment of parameters and assessment of a population size that results in a specified quasiextinction risk based on simple dynamic models The area required to support a population of this size is adjusted to take into account deterministic and stochastic human influences, including small-scale disturbance deterministic trends such as habitat loss, and changes in population density through processes such as predation and competition. We set targets for different disturbance regimes and geographic regions. We applied our methods to Banksia cuneata, Boronia keysii, and Parsonsia dorrigoensis, resulting in target areas for conservation of 1102, 733, and 1084 ha, respectively. These results provide guidance on target areas and priorities for conservation strategies.