Long-term disability after first-ever stroke and related prognostic factors in the Perth Community Stroke Study, 1989-1990

Background and Purpose-Few reliable estimates of the long-term functional outcome after stroke are available. This population-based study aimed to describe disability, dependency, and related independent prognostic factors at 5 years after,a first-ever stroke in patients in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-All individuals with a suspected acute stroke who were resident in a geographically defined region (population, 138 708) of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria over a period of 18 months in 1989 to 1990. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 and 12 months and 5 years after the index event. Results-There were 370 cases of first-ever stroke, and 277 patients survived to 30 days. Of these early survivors, 152 (55%) were alive at 5 years, and among those who were neither institutionalized (n=146) nor disabled (n=129) at the time of their stroke, 21 (14%) were institutionalized in a nursing home, and 47 (36%) were disabled. The most important predictors of death or disability at 5 years were increasing age, baseline disability defined by a Barthel Index score of <20/20 (odds ratio [OR], 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7 to 14), moderate hemiparesis (OR, 2.7. 95% CI, 1.1 to 6.2), severe hemiparesis (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 19), and recurrent stroke (OR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.0 to 30). A low level of activity before the stroke was a significant predictor of institutionalization, and subsequent recurrent stroke was a consistent, independent predictor of institutionalization, disability, and death or institutionalization, increasing the odds of each of these 3 adverse outcomes by 5- to 15-fold. Conclusions-Among 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, about half survive 5 years; of survivors, one third remain disabled, and I in 7 are in permanent institutional care. The major modifiable predictors of poor long-term outcome are a low level of activity before the stroke and subsequent recurrent stroke. Efforts to increase physical activity among the elderly and to prevent recurrent stroke in survivors of a first stroke are likely to reduce the long-term burden of cerebrovascular disease.

Improving maximum walking distance in early peripheral arterial disease: Randomised controlled trial

The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of increased physical activity and cessation of smoking on the natural history of early peripheral arterial disease, We conducted a randomised controlled trial in Perth, Western Australia, involving 882 men with early peripheral arterial disease identified via population-based screening using the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and the ankle:brachial index. Members of the control group (n = 441) received usual care from their general practitioner while members of the intervention group (n = 441) were allocated to a stop smoking and keep walking regime - a combined community-based intervention of cessation of smoking (where applicable) and increased physical activity. Postal follow-up occurred at two and 12 months post-entry into the trial. The main outcome of interest was maximum walking distance. There were no statistically significant differences in the characteristics of the intervention and usual care groups at recruitment. Follow-up information at two and 12 months was available for 85% and 84% of participants, respectively. At 12 months, more men allocated to the intervention group had improved their maximum walking distance (23% vs 15%; chi(2) = 9.74, df = 2, p = 0.008). In addition, more men in the intervention group reported walking more than three times per week for recreation (34% vs 25%, p = 0.01). Although not statistically significant, more men in the intervention group who were smokers when enrolled in the trial had stopped smoking (12% vs 8%, p = 0.43). It is concluded that referral of older patients with intermittent claudication to established physiotherapy programs in the community can increase levels of physical activity and reduce disability related to peripheral arterial disease. A combination of simple and safe interventions that are readily available in the community through physiotherapists and general practitioners has the potential to improve early peripheral arterial disease.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ten-year survival after first-ever stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Very few studies have provided information regarding long-term prognosis after stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute and relative survival over 10 years among patients with first-ever stroke from a population-based study in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who were resident in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, 5 years, and 10 years after the index event. Results-A total of 251 patients with first-ever stroke were registered, and 244 (97%) were followed up at 10 years, by which time 197 (79%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 74 to 84) had died. The major causes of death were the direct effects of the initial stroke (27%; 95% CI, 21 to 33) and cardiovascular disease (26%; 95% CI, 20 to 32). Among 1-year survivors of stroke, the average annual case fatality was 4.8%, which was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.9 to 2.7) times greater than for the general population of the same age and sex. Conclusions-One in 5 patients with first-ever stroke survived to 10 years. The average annual case fatality was 4.8% between years 1 and 10 after stroke, which was twice that expected for the general population. Vascular disease is the major cause of death among long-term survivors of stroke.

Is there an association between chronic lung disease and abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion?

Background: Although there is evidence demonstrating an association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), it is not clear whether COPD predicts greater rates of expansion of established aneurysms. We sought such an association in a cohort of men with aneurysms detected in a population-based study of screening for aneurysms. Methods: In addition to regular aortic ultrasound scans, 179 men with AAA underwent full lung function testing in order to identify the presence of COPD and its subgroups, emphysema and other obstructive ventilatory defects (OVD). The rate of expansion of each aneurysm was calculated and the men were divided into 'rapid expanders' (3 mm or more per year) and 'slow expanders' (less than 3 mm per year). Any association with the presence of COPD or smoking was tested using a multivariate model. Results: Over a median follow-up period of 36 months the mean rate of aortic expansion for the cohort of 179 men was 2.1 mm/year. There was no significant difference in prevalence of COPD (68% overall) or having ever been a smoker (87% overall) between the rapid expanders and the slow expanders. Conclusions: Although there was a high prevalence of COPD among men with an AAA, there was no association between the rate of expansion of AAA and the presence of any form of this disease.

Current smoking and the risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction in the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background: Cohort studies have shown that smoking has a substantial influence on coronary heart disease mortality in young people. Population based data on non-fatal events have been sparse, however. Objective: To study the impact of smoking on the risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (MI) in young middle age people. Methods: From 1985 to 1994 all non-fatal MI events in the age group 35 - 64 were registered in men and women in the WHO MONICA ( multinational monitoring of trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) project populations ( 18 762 events in men and 4047 in women from 32 populations from 21 countries). In the same populations and age groups 65 741 men and 66 717 women participated in the surveys of risk factors ( overall response rate 72%). The relative risk of non-fatal MI for current smokers was compared with non-smokers, by sex and five year age group. Results: The prevalence of smoking in people aged 35 - 39 years who experienced non-fatal MI events was 81% in men and 77% in women. It declined with increasing age to 45% in men aged 60 - 64 years and 36% in women, respectively. In the 35 - 39 years age group the relative risk of non-fatal MI for smokers was 4.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9 to 6.1) in men and 5.3 ( 95% CI 3.2 to 8.7) in women, and the population attributable fractions were 65% and 55%, respectively. Conclusions: During the study period more than half of the non-fatal MIs occurring in young middle age people can be attributed to smoking.

Breast cancer in Western Australia: clinical practice and clinical guidelines

Objectives: To review changes in patterns of care for women with early invasive breast cancer in Western Australia from 1989 to 1999, and compare management with recommendations in the 1995 National Health and Medical Research Council guidelines. Design and setting: Population-based surveys of all cases listed in the Western Australian Cancer Registry and Western Australian Hospital Morbidity Data System. Main outcome measures: Congruence of care with guidelines. Results: Data were available for 1649 women with early invasive breast cancer (categories pT1 or pT2; pN0 or pN1; and M0). In 1999, 96% had a preoperative diagnosis by fine-needle aspiration or core biopsy (compared with 66% in 1989), with a synoptic pathology report on 95%. Breast-conserving surgery was used for 66% of women with mammographically detected tumours (v 35% in 1989) and 46% of those with clinically detected tumours (v 28% in 1989), with radiotherapy to the conserved breast in 90% of these cases (83% in 1989). Adjuvant chemotherapy was given to 92% of premenopausal women with node-positive disease and 63% with poor-prognosis node-negative tumours (v 78% and 14%, respectively, in 1989). Among postmenopausal women with receptor-positive tumours, tamoxifen was prescribed for 91% of those with positive nodes (85% in 1989) and 79% of those with negative nodes (30% in 1989). Among postmenopausal women with receptor-negative tumours, chemotherapy was prescribed for 70% with positive nodes (v 33%) and 58% with negative nodes (v none). Conclusions: Patterns of management of women with early invasive breast cancer in Western Australia during the 1990s changed significantly in all respects toward those recommended in the 1995 guidelines.

Mapping cortical change in Alzheimer's disease, brain development, and schizophrenia

This paper describes algorithms that can identify patterns of brain structure and function associated with Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, normal aging, and abnormal brain development based on imaging data collected in large human populations. Extraordinary information can be discovered with these techniques: dynamic brain maps reveal how the brain grows in childhood, how it changes in disease, and how it responds to medication. Genetic brain maps can reveal genetic influences on brain structure, shedding light on the nature-nurture debate, and the mechanisms underlying inherited neurobehavioral disorders. Recently, we created time-lapse movies of brain structure for a variety of diseases. These identify complex, shifting patterns of brain structural deficits, revealing where, and at what rate, the path of brain deterioration in illness deviates from normal. Statistical criteria can then identify situations in which these changes are abnormally accelerated, or when medication or other interventions slow them. In this paper, we focus on describing our approaches to map structural changes in the cortex. These methods have already been used to reveal the profile of brain anomalies in studies of dementia, epilepsy, depression, childhood and adult-onset schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder, fetal alcohol syndrome, Tourette syndrome, Williams syndrome, and in methamphetamine abusers. Specifically, we describe an image analysis pipeline known as cortical pattern matching that helps compare and pool cortical data over time and across subjects. Statistics are then defined to identify brain structural differences between groups, including localized alterations in cortical thickness, gray matter density (GMD), and asymmetries in cortical organization. Subtle features, not seen in individual brain scans, often emerge when population-based brain data are averaged in this way. Illustrative examples are presented to show the profound effects of development and various diseases on the human cortex. Dynamically spreading waves of gray matter loss are tracked in dementia and schizophrenia, and these sequences are related to normally occurring changes in healthy subjects of various ages. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Surgical management of lung cancer in Western Australia in 1996 and its outcomes

Background: All cases of lung cancer diagnosed in Western Australia in 1996 in which surgery was the primary treatment, were reviewed. Reported herein are the characteristics of the patients, the treatment outcomes and a comparison of the management undertaken with that recommended by international guidelines. Methods: All patients with a new diagnosis of lung cancer in Western Australia in the calendar year of 1996 were identified using two different population-based registration systems: the Western Australian (WA) Cancer Registry and the WA Hospital Morbidity Data System. A structured questionnaire on the diagnosis and management was completed for each case. Date of death was determined through the WA Cancer Registry. Results: Six hundred and sixty-eight patients with lung cancer were identified; 132 (20%) were treated with surgery. Lobectomy was the most frequently performed procedure (71%), followed by pneumonectomy (19%). Major complications affected 23% of patients. Postoperative mortality was 6% (3% lobectomy, 12% pneumonectomy). At 5 years the absolute survival was as follows for stage I, II, IIIA, IIIB, respectively: 51%, 45%, 12%, 5%. Conclusions: Investigations and choice of surgery in WA in 1996 reflect current international guidelines. The survival of patients with resectable lung cancer remains unsatisfactory.

Psychological characteristics of older versus younger persons with a functional gastrointestinal disorder (FGID)

Functional gastrointestinal disorders commonly affect people of all ages, including the elderly. While population-based studies report significant psychological morbidity in people diagnosed with these disorders it is not clear what effect age has in explaining this relationship. We hypothesised that psychological distress would be higher in older versus younger persons with a FGID from the community. A random sample of 4500 subjects were mailed a questionnaire on gastrointestinal symptoms in the past 12 months (response rate = 72%). Of those fulfilling Rome I criteria for a FGID (n = 988) we then classified subjects into older (>60 years) (n =126) versus younger (18-59 years) (n = 862) categories. Psychological variables included anxiety and depression (Delusions Symptom States Inventory) and neuroticism and extroversion (Eysenck Personality Inventory). Quality of life was assessed using the valid SF-12. Anxiety (4.5 vs. 3.1), depression (3.0 vs. 1.8) and neuroticism (5.7 vs. 4.9) were significantly higher in younger versus older subjects with a FGID. While mental functioning (43.1 vs. 48.3) was significantly more impaired in younger versus older subjects, the reverse was found for physical functioning (48.7 vs. 40.8). Younger people with a FGID experience greater

Mammography screening participation: effects of a media campaign targeting Italian-speaking women

Objectives: To evaluate the effect of a radio and newspaper campaign encouraging Italian-speaking women aged 50-69 years to attend a population-based mammography screening program. Methods: A series of radio scripts and newspaper advertisements ran weekly in the Italian-language media over two, four-week periods. Monthly mammography screens were analysed to determine if numbers of Italian-speaking women in the program increased during the two campaign periods, using interrupted time series regression analysis. A survey of Italian-speaking women attending BreastScreen NSW during the campaign period (n=240) investigated whether individuals had heard or seen the advertisements. Results: There was no statistically significant difference in the number of initial or subsequent mammograms in Italian-speaking women between the campaign periods and the period prior to (or after) the campaign. Twenty per cent of respondents cited the Italian media campaign as a prompt to attend. Fifty per cent had heard the radio ad and 30% had seen the newspaper ad encouraging Italian-speaking women to attend BSNSW. The most common prompt to attend was the BSNSW invitation letter, followed by information or recommendation from a GP. Conclusion: Radio and newspaper advertisements developed for the Italian community did not significantly increase attendance to BSNSW. Implications: Measures of program effectiveness based on self-report may not correspond to aggregate screening behaviour. The development of the media campaign in conjunction with the Italian community, and the provision of appropriate levels of resourcing, did not ensure the media campaign's success.

Falling incidence of amputations for peripheral occlusive arterial disease in western Australia between 1980 and 1992

Objectives: To assess temporal trends in the incidence of surgical procedures for peripheral occlusive arterial disease (POAD) and associated changes in outcome as measured by the rate of major lower limb amputations for POAD. Design: a retrospective descriptive population-based study was conducted of the geographically isolated population of Western Austrialia between 1980 and 1992. Methods: Vascular procedures with an accompanying diagnosis of POAD were identified in a computerised system of name-identified records of all discharges from hospital for the population. These procedures were detected using relevant codes from the International Classification of Disease and Procedures. Records of angioplasty and thrombolysis procedures were augmented by searches of hospital-based registers of invasive radiological procedures. The data for the remaining procedures were validated by a review of a random sample of medical records. Results: over the 13 years of the study, rates of major amputations fell significantly for in non-amputation vascular surgery for individuals under the age of 60. In addition, rather than an overall rise in surgery there was shift away from sympathectomy and thromboendarterectomy to angioplasty and bypass surgery. Furthermore, an increasing proportion of all major amputations had a prior attempt at arterial reconstruction. Conclusion: These observations suggest the decrease in major amputations for POAD may reflect a fall in the incidence of POAD, possibly aided by move effective surgery, rather than increased rates of vascular surgery.

Dietary trends: Estimates from food supply and survey data

Objective: To illustrate methodological issues involved in estimating dietary trends in populations using data obtained from various sources in Australia in the 1980s and 1990s. Methods: Estimates of absolute and relative change in consumption of selected food items were calculated using national data published annually on the national food supply for 1982-83 to 1992-93 and responses to food frequency questions in two population based risk factor surveys in 1983 and 1994 in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia. The validity of estimated food quantities obtained from these inexpensive sources at the beginning of the period was assessed by comparison with data from a national dietary survey conducted in 1983 using 24 h recall. Results: Trend estimates from the food supply data and risk factor survey data were in good agreement for increases in consumption of fresh fruit, vegetables and breakfast food and decreases in butter, margarine, sugar and alcohol. Estimates for trends in milk, eggs and bread consumption, however, were inconsistent. Conclusions: Both data sources can be used for monitoring progress towards national nutrition goals based on selected food items provided that some limitations are recognized. While data collection methods should be consistent over time they also need to allow for changes in the food supply (for example the introduction of new varieties such as low-fat dairy products). From time to time the trends derived from these inexpensive data sources should be compared with data derived from more detailed and quantitative estimates of dietary intake.

Risk factors for sudden unexpected cardiac death in Tasmanian men

Background: Sudden unexpected cardiac death (SUCD) accounts for approximately 25% of deaths from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) but is relatively poorly understood because of the difficulties involved in researching aetiology. Clinical differences between instances of SUCD and those cases of acute chest pain that survive long enough to be proven as myocardial infarction but are eventually fatal might reflect differences in aetiology. Aims: To determine the risk factors for sudden unexpected cardiac death in Tasmanian men. Methods: A population-based case-control method was used with the study population, an estimated 125,225 men aged 25-74 years living in the island State of Tasmania, Australia. The case group of 102 men who had a SUCD was validated using necropsy reports, hospital records and information provided by the usual general practitioner. Cases were matched with 204 community controls. Spouses or partners of eligible subjects answered a detailed questionnaire. Multi-variate odds ratios (ORs) for risk factors were calculated using stepwise analysis. Results: Risk factors measured included: smoking habit, treated hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes mellitus, family history of LHD, alcohol intake and exercise habits. Independent risk factors for SUCD were: history of diabetes mellitus (OR=4.2, 95% CI: 1.39, 12.81), current smoking status (OR=3.5, 95% CI: 1.80, 6.82), and family history of IHD (OR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.34, 4.92). Conclusions: Some accepted risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) also predict sudden death in men with no history of coronary disease. Efforts to reduce smoking, the incidence of diabetes mellitus and mean blood pressure must be continued as SUCD is, by definition, untreatable but is potentially avoidable in many instances.