Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Postural activity of the diaphragm is reduced in humans when respiratory demand increases

1. Respiratory activity of the diaphragm and other respiratory muscles is normally co-ordinated with their other functions, such as for postural control of the trunk when the limbs move. The integration may occur by summation of two inputs at the respiratory motoneurons. The present study investigated whether postural activity of the diaphragm changed when respiratory drive increased with hypercapnoea. 2. Electromyographic (EMG) recordings of the diaphragm and other trunk muscles were made with intramuscular electrodes in 13 healthy volunteers. Under control conditions and while breathing through increased dead-space,subjects made rapid repetitive arm movements to disturb the stability of the spine for four periods each lasting 10 s, separated by 50 s. 3. End-tidal CO2, and ventilation increased for the first 60-120 s of the trial then reached a plateau. During rapid arm movement at the start of dead-space breathing, diaphragm EMG became tonic with superimposed modulation at the frequencies of respiration and arm movement. However, when the arm was moved after 60 s of hypercapnoea, the tonic diaphragm EMG during expiration and the phasic activity with arm movement were reduced or absent. Similar changes occurred for the expiratory muscle transversus abdominis, but not for the erector spinae. The mean amplitude of intra-abdominal pressure and the phasic changes with arm movement were reduced after 60 s of hypercapnoea. 4. The present data suggest that increased central respiratory drive may attenuate the postural commands reaching motoneurons. This attenuation can affect the key inspiratory and expiratory muscles and is likely to be co-ordinated at a pre-motoneuronal site.

Influence of patient age and implantation technique on the probability of re-replacement of the homograft aortic valve

Background and aim of the study: Results of valve re-replacement (reoperation) in 898 patients undergoing aortic valve replacement with cryopreserved homograft valves between 1975 and 1998 are reported. The study aim was to provide estimates of unconditional probability of valve reoperation and cumulative incidence function (actual risk) of reoperation. Methods: Valves were implanted by subcoronary insertion (n = 500), inclusion cylinder (n = 46), and aortic root replacement (n = 352). Probability of reoperation was estimated by adopting a mixture model framework within which estimates were adjusted for two risk factors: patient age at initial replacement, and implantation technique. Results: For a patient aged 50 years, the probability of reoperation in his/her lifetime was estimated as 44% and 56% for non-root and root replacement techniques, respectively. For a patient aged 70 years, estimated probability of reoperation was 16% and 25%, respectively. Given that a reoperation is required, patients with non-root replacement have a higher hazard rate than those with root replacement (hazards ratio = 1.4), indicating that non-root replacement patients tend to undergo reoperation earlier before death than root replacement patients. Conclusion: Younger patient age and root versus non-root replacement are risk factors for reoperation. Valve durability is much less in younger patients, while root replacement patients appear more likely to live longer and hence are more likely to require reoperation.

CD40 ligation conditions dendritic cell antigen-presenting function through sustained activation of NF-kappa B

An understanding of the biochemical control of dendritic cell (DC) differentiation/activation is essential for improving T cell immunity by various immunotherapeutic approaches, including DC immunization. Ligation of CD40 enhances DC function, including conditioning for CTL priming. NF-kappaB, and particularly RelB, is an essential control pathway for myeloid DC differentiation. Furthermore, RelB regulates B cell Ag-presenting function. We hypothesized that CD40 ligand (CD40L) and TNF-alpha, which differ in their capacity to condition DC, would also differ in their capacity to activate NF-kappaB. DC differentiated for 2 days from monocytes in the presence of GM-CSF and IL-4 were used as a model, as NF-kappaB activity was constitutively low. The capacity of DC to activate T cells following CD40L treatment was enhanced compared with TNF-alpha treatment, and this was NF-kappaB dependent. Whereas RelB/p50 translocation induced by TNF-alpha was attenuated after 6 h, RelB/p50 nuclear translocation induced by CD40L was sustained for at least 24 h. The mechanism of this difference related to enhanced degradation of IkappaBalpha following CD40L stimulation. However, NF-kappaB activation induced by TNF-alpha could be sustained by blocking autocrine IL-10. These data indicate that NF-kappaB activation is essential for T cell activation by DC, and that this function is enhanced if DC NF-kappaB activation is prolonged. Because IL-10 moderates DC NF-kappaB activation by TNF-alpha, sustained NF-kappaB activation can be achieved by blocking IL-10 in the presence of stimuli that induce TNF-alpha.

Developing a reliable audit instrument to measure the physical environment for physical activity

Background: The physical environment plays an important role in influencing participation in physical activity, although which factors of the physical environment have the greatest effect on patterns of activity remain to be determined. We describe the development of a comprehensive instrument to measure the physical environmental factors that may influence walking and cycling in local neighborhoods and report on its reliability. Methods: Following consultation with experts from a variety of fields and a literature search, we developed a Systematic Pedestrian and Cycling Environmental Scan (SPACES) instrument and used it to collect data over a total of 1987 kilometers of roads in metropolitan Perth, Western Australia. The audit instrument is available from the first author on request. Additional environmental information was collected using desktop methods and geographic information systems (GIS) technology. We assessed inter- and intra-rater reliability of the instrument among the 16 observers who collected the data. Results: The observers reported that the audit instrument was easy to use. Both inter- and intra-rater reliability of the environmental scan instrument were generally high. Conclusions: Our instrument provides a reliable, practical, and easy to-use method for collecting detailed street-level data on physical environmental factors that are potential influences on walking in local neighborhoods.

Aspects of the biology of the yabby Trypea australiensis (Dana) (Decapoda : Thalassinidea) and the potential of burrow counts as an indirect measure of population density

The thalassinidean shrimp Trypea australiensis (the yabby) commonly occurs on intertidal sandflats and subtidal regions of sheltered embayments and estuaries along the east coast of Australia and is harvested commercially and recreationally for use as bait by anglers. The potential for counts of burrow openings to provide a reliable indirect estimate of the abundance of yabbies was examined on intertidal sandflats on North Stradbroke Island (Queensland, Australia). The relationship between the number of burrow openings and the abundance of yabbies was generally poor and also varied significantly through time, casting doubt on previous estimates of abundance for this species based on unvalidated hole counts. Spatial and temporal variation in population density, the size at maturity and the reproductive period of the yabby were also assessed. Except for an initial peak in abundance as a result of recruitment, the density of yabbies was constant throughout the study but considerably less than that estimated from a previous study in the same area. Ovigerous females were recorded at 3 mm carapace length (CL) which is smaller than previously recorded for this species and thalassinideans in general. Small ovigerous females were found throughout the study, including the summer months, which is unusual for thalassinideans in the intertidal zone. It was hypothesised that in the intertidal zone, small female yabbies may be able to balance the metabolic demands of reproduction and respiration at higher temperatures than can larger females allowing them to reproduce in the warmer months.

Oxygen transport capacity in the air-breathing fish, Megalops cyprinoides: compensations for strenuous exercise

Tarpon have high resting or routine hematocrits (Hct) (37.6+/-3.4%) and hemoglobin concentrations (120.6+/-7.3 g 1(-1)) that increased significantly following bouts of angling-induced exercise (51.9+/-3.7% and 142.8+/-13.5 g 1(-1), respectively). Strenuous exercise was accompanied by an approximately tenfold increase in blood lactate and a muscle metabolite profile indicative of a high energy demand teleost. Routine blood values were quickly restored only when this facultative air-breathing fish was given access to atmospheric air. In vitro studies of oxygen transport capacity, a function of carrying capacity and viscosity, revealed that the optimal Hct range corresponded to that observed in fish under routine behaviour. During strenuous exercise however, further increase in viscosity was largely offset by a pronounced reduction in the shear-dependence of blood which conformed closely to an ideal Newtonian fluid. The mechanism for this behaviour of the erythrocytes appears to involve the activation of surface adrenergic receptors because pre-treatment with propranolol abolished the response. High levels of activity in tarpon living in hypoxic habitats are therefore supported by an elevated Hct with adrenergically mediated viscosity reduction, and air-breathing behaviour that enables rapid metabolic recovery. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

A note on the decomposition of the health concentration index

In recent work, the concentration index has been widely used as a measure of income-related health inequality. The purpose of this note is to illustrate two different methods for decomposing the overall health concentration index using data collected from a Short Form (SF-36) survey of the general Australian population conducted in 1995. For simplicity, we focus on the physical functioning scale of the SF-36. Firstly we examine decomposition 'by component' by separating the concentration index for the physical functioning scale into the ten items on which it is based. The results show that the items contribute differently to the overall inequality measure, i.e. two of the items contributed 13% and 5%, respectively, to the overall measure. Second, to illustrate the 'by subgroup' method we decompose the concentration index by employment status. This involves separating the population into two groups: individuals currently in employment; and individuals not currently employed. We find that the inequality between these groups is about five times greater than the inequality within each group. These methods provide insights into the nature of inequality that can be used to inform policy design to reduce income related health inequalities. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Neural correlates of the emergence of consciousness of thirst

Thirst was induced by rapid i.v. infusion of hypertonic saline (0.51 M at 13.4 ml/min). Ten humans were neuroimaged by positron-emission tomography (PET) and four by functional MRI (fMRI). PET images were made 25 min after beginning infusion, when the sensation of thirst began to enter the stream of consciousness. The fMRI images were made when the maximum rate of increase of thirst occurred. The PET results showed regional cerebral blood flow changes similar to those delineated when thirst was maximal. These loci involved the phylogenetically ancient areas of the brain. fMRI showed activation in the anterior wall of the third ventricle, an area that is key in the genesis of thirst but is not an area revealed by PET imaging. Thus, this region plays as major a role in thirst for humans as for animals. Strong activations in the brain with fMRI included the anterior cingulate, parahippocampal gyrus, inferior and middle frontal gyri, insula, and cerebellum. When the subjects drank water to satiation, thirst declined immediately to baseline. A precipitate decline in intensity of activation signal occurred in the anterior cingulate area (Brodmann area 32) putatively related to consciousness of thirst. The intensity of activation in the anterior wall of the third ventricle was essentially unchanged, which is consistent with the fact that a significant time (15-20 min) would be needed before plasma Na concentration changed as a result of water absorption from the gut.

Does the tendency to act impulsively underlie binge eating and alcohol use problems? An empirical investigation

The co-occurrence of problem drinking and binge eating and purging has been well documented. However, there has been relatively little investigation of etiological models that may influence the development of this co-occurrence. This study tests the hypotheses that impulsivity is heightened in eating disordered women compared with controls, and that women with comorbid bulimia and alcohol use disorders show higher impulsivity than bulimic-only women. The Impulsivity scale, BIS/BAS scales, State Anxiety Inventory, and a behavioural measure of reward responsiveness (CARROT) were administered to 22 women with bulimia, 23 women with comorbid bulimia and alcohol abuse/dependence, and 21 control women. As hypothesised, eating disordered women scored higher than controls on several self-report measures of impulsivity and sorted cards faster during a financially rewarded trial on the behavioural task. Also, as predicted, comorbid women scored higher than bulimic women on the Impulsivity scale. These findings suggest that individual differences in impulsiveness and a tendency to approach rewarding stimuli may contribute to developing these disorders. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Firing properties and connectivity of neurons in the rat lateral central nucleus of the amygdala

Using whole cell recordings from acute slices of the rat amygdala, we have examined the physiological properties of and synaptic connectivity to neurons in the lateral sector of the central amygdala (CeA). Based on their response to depolarizing current injections, CeA neurons could be divided into three types. Adapting neurons fired action potentials at the start of the current injections at high frequency and then showed complete spike-frequency adaptation with only six to seven action potentials evoked with suprathreshold current injections. Late-firing neurons fired action potentials with a prolonged delay at threshold but then discharged continuously with larger current injections. Repetitive firers discharged at the start of the current injection at threshold and then discharged continuously with larger current injections. All three cells showed prolonged afterhyperpolarizations (AHPs) that followed trains of action potentials. The AHP was longer lasting with a larger slow component in adapting neurons. The AHP in all cell types contained a fast component that was inhibited by the SK channel blocker UCL1848. The slow component, not blocked by UCL1848, was blocked by isoprenaline and was significantly larger in adapting neurons. Blockade of SK channels increased the discharge frequency in late firers and regular-spiking neurons but had no effect on adapting neurons. Blockade of the slow AHP with isoprenaline had no effect on any cell type. All cells received a mixed glutamatergic and GABAergic input from a medial pathway. Electrical stimulation of the lateral (LA) and basolateral (BLA)nuclei evoked a large monosynaptic glutamatergic response followed by a disynaptic inhibitory postsynaptic potential. Activation of neurons in the LA and BLA by puffer application of glutamate evoked a small monosynaptic response in 13 of 55 CeA neurons. Local application of glutamate to the CeL evoked a GABAergic response in all cells. These results show that at least three types of neurons are present in the CeA that can be distinguished on their firing properties. The firing frequency of two of these cell types is determined by activation of SK channels. Cells receive a small input from the LA and BLA but may receive inputs that course through these nuclei en route to the CeA.

Nutrient-induced perturbations to delta C-13 and delta N-15 in symbiotic dinoilagellates and their coral hosts

Inorganic nutrients play a critical role in determining benthic community structure in tropical seas. This study examined the impact of adding inorganic nutrients (ammonium and phosphate) on the isotopic composition of 2 reef-building corals, Pocillopora damicornis and Heliofungia actiniformis, on the southern Great Barrier Reef. The addition of elevated nutrients to patch reefs that pond at low tide did not perturb the C:N ratio of either species or their symbiotic dinoflagellates. The C:N ratios were significantly higher in material extracted from the skeleton (14.8 +/- 1.50 and 10.8 +/- 1.42) than either host (7.6 +/- 0.87 and 6.0 +/- 0.71) or symbiotic dinoflagellates (5.7 +/- 0.48 and 6.9 +/- 0.66) (P. damicornis and H. actiniformis respectively; 95 confidence intervals). The ratio of acquired N to background N suggests that the added dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) accounted for 50 to 100% of total nitrogen within the tissues of P. damicornis and H. actiniformis at the end of the experiment. The addition of the isotopically depleted nutrients (delta(15) N = 0parts per thousand) to patch reefs significantly decreased delta(15)N from control values of between 3 and 4 to values to below 1 in the case of all compartments, while delta(13)C values were relatively unresponsive to nutrient treatments. These findings suggest that coral delta(15)N has the potential to provide a historical record of the delta(15)N of dissolved nitrogen surrounding reef-building corals and their symbiotic dinoflagellates.