The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Warranty and optimal reliability improvement through product development

For products sold with warranty, the warranty servicing cost can be reduced by improving product reliability through a development process. However, this increases the unit manufacturing cost. Optimal development must achieve a trade-off between these two costs. The outcome of the development process is uncertain and needs to be taken into account in the determination of the optimal development effort. The paper develops a model where this uncertainty is taken into account. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of vehicle pretreatment on the flux, retention, and diffusion of topically applied penetrants in vitro

Purpose. The flux of a topically applied drug depends on the activity in the skin and the interaction between the vehicle and skin. Permeation of vehicle into the skin can alter the activity of drug and the properties of the skin barrier. The aim of this in vitro study was to separate and quantify these effects. Methods. The flux of four radiolabeled permeants (water, phenol, diflunisal, and diazepam) with log K-oct/water values from 1.4 to 4.3 was measured over 4 h through heat-separated human epidermis pretreated for 30 min with vehicles having Hildebrand solubility parameters from 7.9 to 23.4 (cal/cm(3))(1/2). Results. Enhancement was greatest after pretreatment with the more lipophilic vehicles. A synergistic enhancement was observed using binary mixtures. The flux of diazepam was not enhanced to the same extent as the other permeants, possibly because its partitioning into the epidermis is close to optimal (log K-oct 2.96). Conclusion. An analysis of the permeant remaining in the epidermis revealed that the enhancement can be the result of either increased partitioning of permeant into the epidermis or an increasing diffusivity of permeants through the epidermis.

Usefulness of quantitative echocardiographic techniques to predict recovery of regional and global left ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction

The left ventricular response to dobutamine may be quantified using tissue Doppler measurement of myocardial velocity or displacement or 3-dimensional echocardiography to measure ventricular volume and ejection fraction. This study sought to explore the accuracy of these methods for predicting segmental and global responses to therapy. Standard dobutamine and 3-dimensional echocardiography were performed in 92 consecutive patients with abnormal left ventricular function at rest. Recovery of function was defined by comparison with follow-up echocardiography at rest 5 months later. Segments that showed improved regional function at follow-up showed a higher increment in peak tissue Doppler velocity with dobutamine therapy than in nonviable segments (1.2 +/- 0.4 vs 0.3 +/- 0.2 cm/s, p = 0.001). Similarly, patients who showed a > 5% improvement of ejection fraction at follow-up showed a greater displacement response to dobutamine (6.9 +/- 3.2 vs 2.1 +/- 2.3 mm, p = 0.001), as well as a higher rate of ejection fraction, response to dobutamine (9 +/- 3% vs 2 +/- 2%, p = 0.001). The optimal cutoff values for predicting subsequent recovery of function at rest were an increment of peak velocity > 1 cm/s, >5 mm of displacement, and a >5% improvement of ejection fraction with low-dose dobutamine. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

Balancing the number and size of sites: An economic approach to the optimal design of cluster samples

The design of randomized controlled trials entails decisions that have economic as well as statistical implications. In particular, the choice of an individual or cluster randomization design may affect the cost of achieving the desired level of power, other things being equal. Furthermore, if cluster randomization is chosen, the researcher must decide how to balance the number of clusters, or sites, and the size of each site. This article investigates these interrelated statistical and economic issues. Its principal purpose is to elucidate the statistical and economic trade-offs to assist researchers to employ randomized controlled trials that have desired economic, as well as statistical, properties. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Normal values for pelvic organ descent in health nulligravid young caucasian women

Translabial ultrasound is increasingly being used for the assessment of women presenting with pelvic floor dysfunction and incontinence (1,2). However, there is little information on normal values for bladder neck descent, with the two available studies disagreeing widely (3,4). No data has so far been published on mobility of the central and posterior compartment which can now also be assessed by ultrasound (5). This study presents normal values for urethral, bladder, cervical and rectal mobility in a cohort of young, stress continent, nulliparous nonpregnant women. Methods 118 nonpregnant nulliparous Caucasian women between 18 and 23 years of age were recruited for an ongoing twin study of pelvic floor function. Translabial ultrasound assessment of pelvic organ mobility was undertaken supine and after bladder emptying (6,7). The best of at least three effective Valsalva manoeuvres was used for evaluation, with no attempts at standardization of Valsalva pressure. Parameters of anterior compartment mobility were obtained by the use of on-screen calipers; cervical and rectal descent were evaluated on printouts. All examinations were carried out under direct supervision of the first author or by personnel trained by him for at least 100 consecutive assessments. Results The median age of participants in this study was 20 (range 18- 23). Mean body mass index was 23 (range 16.9- 36.7). Of 118 women, 2 were completely unable to perform a Valsalva manoeuvre despite repeated efforts at teaching and were excluded from analysis, as were ten women who complained of urinary stress incontinence, leaving 106 datasets. Average measurements for the parameters ‘retrovesical angle at rest’ (RVA-R) and on Valsalva (RVA-S), urethral rotation, bladder neck mobility, cysto-cele descent, cervical descent and descent of the rectal ampulla are given in Table 1.

G-values for scission and crosslinking on γ-radiolysis of Ultem at 303 K

The radiation chemical yields G(S) and G(X) for H-linking and Y-linking models for Ultem have been calculated from molecular weight analysis by gel permeation chromatography. These G-values have been compared with the G-values obtained from analysis of soluble fractions above the gel dose, Which have been reported in previous works. An analysis of the molecular weight data in terms of H-linking and Y-linking mechanisms yielded values of G(S-H) = 1.0 x 10(-3) and G(H) = 6.0 x 10(-3) and G(S-Y) = 1.3 x 10(-2) and G(Y) = 1.8 x 10(-2). The corresponding values obtained from the solubility data were G(SH) = 0.53 x 10(-2), G(H) = 1.39 x 10(-2), G(S-Y) = 4.2 x 10(-2) and G(Y) - 4.6 x 10(-2). The origin of the disagreement between the molecular weight and solubility values is not clear, but it could arise as a result of observed microgel formation below the reported gel dose of 0.13 MGy. Whether the crosslink mechanism proceeds by an H-linking or Y-linking process is also unclear and will require direct observation of the crosslinking structures.