The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Organizational responses to a changing aid environment: the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ)

As a major European donor, German government development assistance faces a series of challenges. Recent political changes have raised expectations for demonstrable health outcomes as a result of German development assistance; there has been a deepened commitment to collaboration with other bilateral and multilateral donors; and partner countries are increasingly open to new approaches to development. German development assistance also reflects a new ethos of partnership and the shift to programmatic and sector based development approaches. At the same time, its particular organizational structure and administrative framework highlight the extent of structural and systems reforms required of donors by changing development relationships, and the tensions created in responding to these. This paper examines organizational changes within the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit) (GTZ), aimed at increasing its Regional, Sectoral, Managerial and Process competence as they affect health and related sectors. These include the decentralization of GTZ, the trend to integration of projects, the increasing focus on policy and health systems reform, increased inter-sectoral collaboration, changes in recruitment and training, new perspectives in planning and evaluation and the introduction of a quality management programme. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Modelling High-Dimensional Data by Mixtures of Factor Analyzers

We focus on mixtures of factor analyzers from the perspective of a method for model-based density estimation from high-dimensional data, and hence for the clustering of such data. This approach enables a normal mixture model to be fitted to a sample of n data points of dimension p, where p is large relative to n. The number of free parameters is controlled through the dimension of the latent factor space. By working in this reduced space, it allows a model for each component-covariance matrix with complexity lying between that of the isotropic and full covariance structure models. We shall illustrate the use of mixtures of factor analyzers in a practical example that considers the clustering of cell lines on the basis of gene expressions from microarray experiments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.