Biostatistics in Australia: Directions in the new millennium

The Biostatistics Collaboration of Australia (BCA) was formed in response to a shortage of statisticians seeking careers in the medical and health professions. The Collaboration has been successful in developing postgraduate courses (Graduate Certificate, Graduate Diploma and Masters) offered by a consortium of seven Australian Universities. These courses are available through a distance learning medium. The BCA was successful in securing funding from the Federal government to launch these courses, which commenced in March 2001. Two traineeships by the NSW Department of Health have also been awarded and a third is currently advertised. There has been close collaboration with governments, the pharmaceutical industry and research organisations to ensure that course content reflects practical problems and addresses industry needs. A second objective of the BCA is to provide ongoing workshops for practising biostatisticians to enhance professional development. These workshops serve to ring together biostatisticians from both within Australia and the Asia-Pacific region, providing a forum for discussion of current statistical thinking. (author abstract)

Molecular genetics of schizophrenia

1. Schizophrenia is a chronic, disabling brain disease that affects approxmately 1% of the world's population. It is characterized by delusions, hallucinations and formal thought disorder, together with a decline in socio-occupational functioning. While the causes for schizophrenia remain unknown, evidence from family, twin and adoption studies clearly demonstrates that it aggregates in families, with this clustering largely attributable to genetic rather than cultural or environmental factors. Identifying the genes involved, however, has proven to be a difficult task because schizophrenia is a complex trait characterized by an imprecise phenotype, the existence of phenocopies and the presence of low disease penetrance, 2. The current working hypothesis for schizophrenia causation is that multiple genes of small to moderate effect confer compounding risk through interactions with each other and with non-genetic risk factors, The same genes may be commonly involved in conferring risk across populations or they may vary in number and strength between different populations. To search for evidence of such genetic loci, both candidate gene and genome-wide linkage studies have been used in clinical cohorts collected from a variety of populations. Collectively, these works provide some evidence for the involvement of a number of specific genes (e.g. the 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) type 2a receptor (5-HT2a) gene and the dopamine D-3 receptor gene) and as yet unidentified factors localized to specific chromosomal regions, including 6p, 6q, 8p, 13q and 22q, These data provide suggestive, but no conclusive, evidence for causative genes. 3. To enable further progress there is a need to: (i) collect fine-grained clinical datasets while searching the schizophrenia phenotype for subgroups or dimensions that may provide a more direct route to causative genes; and (ii) integrate recent refinements in molecular genetic technology, including modern composite marker maps, DNA expression assays and relevant animal models, while using the latest analytical techniques to extract maximum information in order to help distinguish a true result from a false-positive finding.

ANZUS - Alive and well after fifty years

Marking its fiftieth anniversary in late 2001, the ANZUS alliance remains Australia's primary security relationship and one of the United States' most important defence arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region. It is argued here that ANZUS has defied many common suppositions advanced by international relations theorists on how alliances work. It thus represents an important refutation of arguments that they are short-term instruments of mere policy expediency and are largely interest-dependent. Cultural and normative factors are powerful, if often underrated, determinants for ANZUS's perpetuation. ANZUS may thus constitute an important test case for expanding our understanding of alliance politics beyond the usual preconditions and prerogatives normally associated with such a relationship.

Numerical simulations of wind and temperature structure within an Alpine lake basin, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand

High-resolution numerical model simulations have been used to study the local and mesoscale thermal circulations in an Alpine lake basin. The lake (87 km(2)) is situated in the Southern Alps, New Zealand and is located in a glacially excavated rock basin surrounded by mountain ranges that reach 3000 m in height. The mesoscale model used (RAMS) is a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic model with a level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme. The model demonstrates that thermal forcing at local (within the basin) and regional (coast-to-basin inflow) scales drive the observed boundary-layer airflow in the lake basin during clear anticyclonic summertime conditions. The results show that the lake can modify (perturb) both the local and regional wind systems. Following sunrise, local thermal circulations dominate, including a lake breeze component that becomes embedded within the background valley wind system. This results in a more divergent flow in the basin extending across the lake shoreline. However, a closed lake breeze circulation is neither observed nor modelled. Modelling results indicate that in the latter part of the day when the mesoscale (coast-to-basin) inflow occurs, the relatively cold pool of lake air in the basin can cause the intrusion to decouple from the surface. Measured data provide qualitative and quantitative support for the model results.

Genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) and its effect on the performance of PfHRP2-based rapid diagnostic tests

Rising costs of antimalarial agents are increasing the demand for accurate diagnosis of malaria. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) offer great potential to improve the diagnosis of malaria, particularly in remote areas. Many RDTs are based on the detection of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein (PfHRP) 2, but reports from field tests have questioned their sensitivity and reliability. We hypothesize that the variability in the results of PfHRP2-based RDTs is related to the variability in the target antigen. We tested this hypothesis by examining the genetic diversity of PfHRP2, which includes numerous amino acid repeats, in 75 P. falciparum lines and isolates originating from 19 countries and testing a subset of parasites by use of 2 PfHRP2-based RDTs. We observed extensive diversity in PfHRP2 sequences, both within and between countries. Logistic regression analysis indicated that 2 types of repeats were predictive of RDT detection sensitivity (87.5% accuracy), with predictions suggesting that only 84% of P. falciparum parasites in the Asia-Pacific region are likely to be detected at densities