Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimates of the real structured radius of stability of linear dynamic systems

A question is examined as to estimates of the norms of perturbations of a linear stable dynamic system, under which the perturbed system remains stable in a situation R:here a perturbation has a fixed structure.

A sensitive vorticity gauge using rotated porphyroblasts, and its application to rocks adjacent to the Alpine Fault, New Zealand

Variable aspect ratio porphyroblasts deformed in non-coaxial flow. and internally containing rotated relicts of an external foliation, can be used to characterise plane strain flow regimes. The distribution obtained by plotting the orientation of the long axis of such grains, classified by aspect ratio, against the orientation of the internal foliation is potentially a sensitive gauge of both the bulk shear strain (as previously suggested) and kinematic vorticity number. We illustrate the method using rotated biotite porphyroblasts in the Alpine Schist: a sequence of mid-crustal rocks that have been ramped to the surface along the Alpine Fault. a major transpressional plate boundary. Results indicate that, at distances greater than or equal to similar to1 km from the fault, the rocks have undergone a combination of irrotational fattening and dextral-oblique, normal-sense shear, with a bulk shear strain of similar to0.6 and kinematic vorticity number of similar to0.2. The vorticity analysis is compatible with estimates of strongly oblate bulk strain of similar to 75% maximum shortening. Dextral-reverse transpressional flow characterises higher strain S-tectonite mylonite within similar to1 km of the Alpine Fault. These relationships provide insight into the kinematics of flow and distribution of strain in the hangingwall of the Alpine Fault and place constraints on numerical mechanical models for the exhumation of these mid-crustal rocks. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic relationships of Trypanosoma chelodina and Trypanosoma binneyi from Australian tortoises and platypuses inferred from small subunit rRNA analyses

Trypanosome infections are often difficult to detect by conventional microscopy and their pleomorphy often confounds differential diagnosis. Molecular techniques are now being used to diagnose infections and to determine phylogenetic relationships between species. Complete small subunit rRNA gene sequences were determined for isolates of Trypanosoma chelodina from the Brisbane River tortoise (Emydura signata), the saw-shelled tortoise (Elseya latisternum), and the eastern snake-necked tortoise (Chelodina longicollis) from southeast Queensland, Australia. Partial sequence data were also obtained for T. binneyi from a platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) from Tasmania. Phylogenetic relationships between T. chelodina, T. binneyi and other species were examined by maximum parsimony and likelihood methods. The Australian tortoise and platypus trypanosomes did not exhibit any close phylogenetic relationships with those of mammals, reptiles or amphibians, but were closely related to each other, and to fish trypanosomes. This contra-indicates their co-evolution with their vertebrate hosts but does not exclude co-evolution with different groups of invertebrate vectors, notably insects and leeches.

On the heritability of inspection time and its covariance with IQ: A twin study

Using the classical twin design, this study investigates the influence of genetic factors on the large phenotypic variance in inspection time (IT), and whether the well established IT-IQ association can be explained by a common genetic factor. Three hundred ninety pairs of twins (184 monozygotic, MZ; 206 dizygotic, DZ) with a mean age of 16 years participated, and 49 pairs returned approximately 3 months, later for retesting. As in many IT studies, the pi figure stimulus was used and IT was estimated from the cumulative normal ogive. IT ranged from 39.4 to 774.1 ms (159 +/- 110.1 ms) with faster ITs (by an average of 26.9 ms) found in the retest session from which a reliability of .69 was estimated. Full-scale IQ (FIQ) was assessed by the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB) and ranged from 79 to 145 (111 +/- 13). The phenotypic association between IT and FIQ was confirmed (- .35) and bivariate results showed that a common genetic factor accounted for 36% of the variance in IT and 32% of the variance in FIQ. The maximum likelihood estimate of the genetic correlation was - .63. When performance and verbal IQ (PIQ & VIQ) were analysed with IT, a stronger phenotypic and genetic relationship was found between PIQ and IT than with VIQ. A large part of the IT variance (64%) was accounted for by a unique environmental factor. Further genetic factors were needed to explain the remaining variance in IQ with a small component of unique environmental variance present. The separability of a shared genetic factor influencing IT and IQ from the total genetic variance in IQ suggests that IT affects a specific subcomponent of intelligence rather than a generalised efficiency. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Molluscan stable isotope temperature estimates of the southwestern Ross Sea during the early oligocene and early miocene, CRP-2/2A and CRP-3, Victoria Land Basin, Antarctica

Stable isotope analyses of marine bivalve growth increment samples have been used to estimate early Oligocene (29.4 - 31.2) Ma and early Miocene (24.0 Ma) seafloor palaeotemperatures from the southwestern continental margin of the Ross Sea. Measured δ18O values average +2.5‰ in the early Miocene and range between +1.26 to +3.24‰ in the early Oligocene. The results show that palaeoceanographic conditions in McMurdo Sound during the mid-Cenozoic were significantly different from those of today. The minimum estimated spring through late summer seasonal temperature range was 3°C during the early Miocene and between 1 and 5°C during the early Oligocene. This compares to the equivalent modern day range of

Phylogenetic analysis of the Monocotylidae (Monogenea) inferred from 28S rDNA sequences

The current classification of the Monocotylidae (Monogenea) is based on a phylogeny generated from morphological characters. The present study tests the morphological phylogenetic hypothesis using molecular methods. Sequences from domains C2 and D1 and the partial domains C1 and D2 from the 28S rDNA gene for 26 species of monocotylids from six of the seven subfamilies were used. Trees were generated using maximum parsimony, neighbour joining and maximum likelihood algorithms. The maximum parsimony tree, with branches showing less than 70% bootstrap support collapsed, had a topology identical to that obtained using the maximum likelihood analysis. The neighbour joining tree, with branches showing less than 70% support collapsed. differed only in its placement of Heterocotyle capricornensis as the sister group to the Decacotylinae clade. The molecular tree largely supports the subfamilies established using morphological characters. Differences are primarily how the subfamilies are related to each other. The monophyly of the Calicotylinae and Merizocotylinae and their sister group relationship is supported by high bootstrap values in all three methods, but relationships within the Merizocotylinae are unclear. Merizocotyle is paraphyletic and our data suggest that Mycteronastes and Thaumatocotyle, which were synonymized with Merizocotyle after the morphological cladistic analysis, should perhaps be resurrected as valid genera. The monophyly of the Monocotylinae and Decacotylinae is also supported by high bootstrap values. The Decacotylinae, which was considered previously to be the sister group to the Calicotylinae plus Merizocotylinae, is grouped in an unresolved polychotomy with the Monocotylinae and members of the Heterocotylinae. According to our molecular data, the Heterocotylinae is paraphyletic. Molecular data support a sister group relationship between Troglocephalus rhinobatidis and Neoheterocotyle rhinobatidis to the exclusion of the other species of Neoheterocotyle and recognition of Troglocephalus renders Neoheterocotyle,le paraphyletic. We propose Troglocephalus incertae sedis. An updated classification and full species list of the Monocotylidae is provided. (C) 2001 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of obstacle position on reach-to-grasp movements

Numerous everyday tasks require the nervous system to program a prehensile movement towards a target object positioned in a cluttered environment. Adult humans are extremely proficient in avoiding contact with any non-target objects (obstacles) whilst carrying out such movements. A number of recent studies have highlighted the importance of considering the control of reach-to-grasp (prehension) movements in the presence of such obstacles. The current study was constructed with the aim of beginning the task of studying the relative impact on prehension as the position of obstacles is varied within the workspace. The experimental design ensured that the obstacles were positioned within the workspace in locations where they did not interfere physically with the path taken by the hand when no obstacle was present. In all positions, the presence of an obstacle caused the hand to slow down and the maximum grip aperture to decrease. Nonetheless, the effect of the obstacle varied according to its position within the workspace. In the situation where an obstacle was located a small distance to the right of a target object, the obstacle showed a large effect on maximum grip aperture but a relatively small effect on movement time. In contrast, an object positioned in front and to the right of a target object had a large effect on movement speed but a relatively small effect on maximum grip aperture. It was found that the presence of two obstacles caused the system to decrease further the movement speed and maximum grip aperture. The position of the two obstacles dictated the extent to which their presence affected the movement parameters. These results show that the antic ipated likelihood of a collision with potential obstacles affects the planning of movement duration and maximum grip aperture in prehension.

Fitting a mixture model to three-mode three-way data with missing information

When the data consist of certain attributes measured on the same set of items in different situations, they would be described as a three-mode three-way array. A mixture likelihood approach can be implemented to cluster the items (i.e., one of the modes) on the basis of both of the other modes simultaneously (i.e,, the attributes measured in different situations). In this paper, it is shown that this approach can be extended to handle three-mode three-way arrays where some of the data values are missing at random in the sense of Little and Rubin (1987). The methodology is illustrated by clustering the genotypes in a three-way soybean data set where various attributes were measured on genotypes grown in several environments.

Measurement of qubits

We describe in detail the theory underpinning the measurement of density matrices of a pair of quantum two-level systems (qubits). Our particular emphasis is on qubits realized by the two polarization degrees of freedom of a pair of entangled photons generated in a down-conversion experiment; however, the discussion applies in general, regardless of the actual physical realization. Two techniques are discussed, namely, a tomographic reconstruction (in which the density matrix is linearly related to a set of measured quantities) and a maximum likelihood technique which requires numerical optimization (but has the advantage of producing density matrices that are always non-negative definite). In addition, a detailed error analysis is presented, allowing errors in quantities derived from the density matrix, such as the entropy or entanglement of formation, to be estimated. Examples based on down-conversion experiments are used to illustrate our results.

Phylogenetic analysis of evolutionary relationships of the planctomycete division of the domain bacteria based on amino acid sequences of elongation factor Tu

Sequences from the tuf gene coding for the elongation factor EF-Tu were amplified and sequenced from the genomic DNA of Pirellula marina and Isosphaera pallida, two species of bacteria within the order Planctomycetales. A near-complete (1140-bp) sequence was obtained from Pi. marina and a partial (759-bp) sequence was obtained for I. pallida. Alignment of the deduced Pi. marina EF-Tu amino acid sequence against reference sequences demonstrated the presence of a unique Il-amino acid sequence motif not present in any other division of the domain Bacteria. Pi. marina shared the highest percentage amino acid sequence identity with I. pallida but showed only a low percentage identity with other members of the domain Bacteria. This is consistent with the concept of the planctomycetes as a unique division of the Bacteria. Neither primary sequence comparison of EF-Tu nor phylogenetic analysis supports any close relationship between planctomycetes and the chlamydiae, which has previously been postulated on the basis of 16S rRNA. Phylogenetic analysis of aligned EF-Tu amino acid sequences performed using distance, maximum-parsimony, and maximum likelihood approaches yielded contradictory results with respect to the position of planctomycetes relative to other bacteria, It is hypothesized that long-branch attraction effects due to unequal evolutionary rates and mutational saturation effects may account for some of the contradictions.

'Neighbourhood' size, dispersal and density estimates in the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae) using individual genetic and demographic methods

Dispersal, or the amount of dispersion between an individual's birthplace and that of its offspring, is of great importance in population biology, behavioural ecology and conservation, however, obtaining direct estimates from field data on natural populations can be problematic. The prickly forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae, is a rainforest endemic skink from the wet tropics of Australia. Because of its log-dwelling habits and lack of definite nesting sites, a demographic estimate of dispersal distance is difficult to obtain. Neighbourhood size, defined as 4 piD sigma (2) (where D is the population density and sigma (2) the mean axial squared parent-offspring dispersal rate), dispersal and density were estimated directly and indirectly for this species using mark-recapture and microsatellite data, respectively, on lizards captured at a local geographical scale of 3 ha. Mark-recapture data gave a dispersal rate of 843 m(2)/generation (assuming a generation time of 6.5 years), a time-scaled density of 13 635 individuals * generation/km(2) and, hence, a neighbourhood size of 144 individuals. A genetic method based on the multilocus (10 loci) microsatellite genotypes of individuals and their geographical location indicated that there is a significant isolation by distance pattern, and gave a neighbourhood size of 69 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval between 48 and 184. This translates into a dispersal rate of 404 m(2)/generation when using the mark-recapture density estimation, or an estimate of time-scaled population density of 6520 individuals * generation/km(2) when using the mark-recapture dispersal rate estimate. The relationship between the two categories of neighbourhood size, dispersal and density estimates and reasons for any disparities are discussed.

Power of the joint segregation analysis method for testing mixed major-gene and polygene inheritance models of quantitative traits

Understanding the genetic architecture of quantitative traits can greatly assist the design of strategies for their manipulation in plant-breeding programs. For a number of traits, genetic variation can be the result of segregation of a few major genes and many polygenes (minor genes). The joint segregation analysis (JSA) is a maximum-likelihood approach for fitting segregation models through the simultaneous use of phenotypic information from multiple generations. Our objective in this paper was to use computer simulation to quantify the power of the JSA method for testing the mixed-inheritance model for quantitative traits when it was applied to the six basic generations: both parents (P-1 and P-2), F-1, F-2, and both backcross generations (B-1 and B-2) derived from crossing the F-1 to each parent. A total of 1968 genetic model-experiment scenarios were considered in the simulation study to quantify the power of the method. Factors that interacted to influence the power of the JSA method to correctly detect genetic models were: (1) whether there were one or two major genes in combination with polygenes, (2) the heritability of the major genes and polygenes, (3) the level of dispersion of the major genes and polygenes between the two parents, and (4) the number of individuals examined in each generation (population size). The greatest levels of power were observed for the genetic models defined with simple inheritance; e.g., the power was greater than 90% for the one major gene model, regardless of the population size and major-gene heritability. Lower levels of power were observed for the genetic models with complex inheritance (major genes and polygenes), low heritability, small population sizes and a large dispersion of favourable genes among the two parents; e.g., the power was less than 5% for the two major-gene model with a heritability value of 0.3 and population sizes of 100 individuals. The JSA methodology was then applied to a previously studied sorghum data-set to investigate the genetic control of the putative drought resistance-trait osmotic adjustment in three crosses. The previous study concluded that there were two major genes segregating for osmotic adjustment in the three crosses. Application of the JSA method resulted in a change in the proposed genetic model. The presence of the two major genes was confirmed with the addition of an unspecified number of polygenes.

A multiple-outgroup approach to resolving division-level phylogenetic relationships using 16S rDNA data

The 16S rRNA gene (16S rDNA) is currently the most widely used gene for estimating the evolutionary history of prokaryotes, To date, there are more than 30 000 16S rDNA sequences available from the core databases, GenBank, EMBL and DDBJ, This great number may cause a dilemma when composing datasets for phylogenetic analysis, since the choice and number of reference organisms are known to affect the resulting tree topology. A group of sequences appearing monophyletic in one dataset may not be so in another. This can be especially problematic when establishing the relationships of distantly related sequences at the division (phylum) level. In this study, a multiple-outgroup approach to resolving division-level phylogenetic relationships is suggested using 16S rDNA data. The approach is illustrated by two case studies concerning the monophyly of two recently proposed bacterial divisions, OP9 and OP10.