110 resultados para Logistic Epidemic
Resumo:
The prevalence of colonization with the anaerobic intestinal spirochaetes Brachyspira aalborgi and Brachyspira pilosicoli was investigated in humans (n = 316) and dogs (n = 101) living on three tea estates in Assam, India. Colonization was detected using PCR on DNA from faeces. Nineteen (6%) human faecal samples contained B. aalborgi DNA, 80 (25.3%) contained B. pilosicoli DNA, and 10 (3.2%) contained DNA from both species. One canine sample contained DNA from B. pilosicoli. Significant factors for B. aalborgi colonization in logistic regression were: infection of family members with B. aalborgi (P < 0.001), being a resident of Balipara (P = 0.03), and use of water treatment (P = 0.03). For B. pilosicoli, significant factors were: other family members being positive for B. pilosicoli (P < 0.001), water obtained from a well (P = 0.006), water treatment (P = 0.03), and not having visited a doctor in the previous 12 months (P = 0.03).
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Background-C- reactive protein (CRP) levels have been shown to predict a number of cardiovascular outcomes. CRP levels have also been found to be elevated in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). The aim of this study was to assess the relation between CRP levels and rates of expansion of small AAAs. Methods and Results-A cohort of men with small aneurysms was identified in a trial of screening with ultrasound scanning. After initial screening, men were rescanned at 6- to 12-month intervals. CRP levels were measured at the first follow-up visit. Rates of expansion and risk factors for expansion were assessed with the use of data from 545 men who attended for at least 1 scan after CRP levels were measured. These men were followed for a median of 48 (range, 5 to 69) months. The mean annual rate of expansion was 1.6 mm. The median CRP level was 2.6 mg/L in men with the smaller AAAs (30 to 39 mm, n=433) compared with 3.5 mg/L in men with larger AAAs (40 to 54 mm, n=112) (P=0.007). The multivariate age-adjusted logistic model confirmed initial aortic diameter to be the only factor associated with rapid expansion with an odds ratio of 7.2 (95% CI, 4.3,12.2) for an initial diameter of 40 to 54 mm relative to one of 30 to 39 mm. Conclusions-Most small aneurysms expand slowly. CRP levels are elevated in larger aneurysms but do not appear to be associated with rapid expansion. The most useful predictor of aneurysmal expansion in men is aortic diameter.
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Objective: To examine the quality of diabetes care and prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australian general practice patients with type 2 diabetes and to investigate its relationship with coronary heart disease absolute risk (CHDAR). Methods: A total of 3286 patient records were extracted from registers of patients with type 2 diabetes held by 16 divisions of general practice (250 practices) across Australia for the year 2002. CHDAR was estimated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study algorithm with higher CHDAR set at a 10 year risk of >15%. Multivariate multilevel logistic regression investigated the association between CHDAR and diabetes care. Results: 47.9% of diabetic patient records had glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) >7%, 87.6% had total cholesterol >= 4.0 mmol/l, and 73.8% had blood pressure (BP) >= 130/85 mm Hg. 57.6% of patients were at a higher CHDAR, 76.8% of whom were not on lipid modifying medication and 66.2% were not on antihypertensive medication. After adjusting for clustering at the general practice level and age, lipid modifying medication was negatively related to CHDAR (odds ratio (OR) 0.84) and total cholesterol. Antihypertensive medication was positively related to systolic BP but negatively related to CHDAR (OR 0.88). Referral to ophthalmologists/optometrists and attendance at other health professionals were not related to CHDAR. Conclusions: At the time of the study the diabetes and CVD preventive care in Australian general practice was suboptimal, even after a number of national initiatives. The Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) guidelines need to be modified to improve CVD preventive care in patients with type 2 diabetes.
Resumo:
Amongst the infectious diseases that threaten equine health, herpesviral infections remain a world wide cause of serious morbidity and mortality. Equine herpesvirus-1 infection is the most important pathogen, causing an array of disorders including epidemic respiratory disease abortion, neonatal foal death, myeloencephalopathy and chorioretinopathy. Despite intense scientific investigation, extensive use of vaccination, and established codes of practice for control of disease outbreaks, infection and disease remain common. While equine herpesvirus-1 infection remains a daunting challenge for immunoprophylaxis, many critical advances in equine immunology have resulted in studies of this virus, particularly related to MHC-restricted cytotoxicity in the horse. A workshop was convened in San Gimignano, Tuscany, Italy in June 2004, to bring together clinical and basic researchers in the field of equine herpesvirus-1 study to discuss the latest advances and future prospects for improving our under-standing of these diseases, and equine immunity to herpesviral infection. This report highlights the new information that was the focus of this workshop, and is intended to summarize this material and identify the critical questions in the field. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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No previous study has examined the modifying effect of menopausal status on the association between lactation and ovarian cancer risk. We recruited 824 epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 855 community controls in three Australian states, collecting reproductive and lactation histories by means of a contraceptive calendar and pregnancy and breastfeeding record. We report results in women with at least one liveborn infant for unsupplemented breastfeeding, in line with a biological model linking suppression of ovulation to reduction in ovarian cancer risk. We derived odds ratios from multiple logistic regression models including number of liveborn children, age, age at first or last birth, and other potential confounders, overall and by menopausal status. Estimates of relative risk of ovarian cancer per month of full lactation were 0.99 [95% confidence interval(CI) = 0.97-1.00] overall and 1.00 (95% CI = 0.99-1.01) and 0.98 (95% CI = 0.95-1.01) among post- and premenopausal women, respectively. We tailored a lactation variable to the incessant ovulation hypothesis by progressively discounting breastfeeding the longer after birth it occurred, finding odds ratios similar to those for the unmodified duration variable. We found no association of note among postmenopausal women. Breastfeeding seems to be somewhat protective against ovarian cancer, but only before menopause.
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Study objective-To investigate asthma mortality during 1920-94 in Australia in order to assess the relative role of period and birth cohort effects. Design-Asthma mortality (both sexes) was age standardised and examined for changes over time. The data were also examined for age, period, and cohort (APC) effects using Poisson regression modelling. Setting-National Australian mortality data. Participants-Population (both sexes) aged 15-34 years, 1920-94. Main results-Age adjusted period rates indicate an increase in asthma mortality during the 1950s, and increases and subsequent falls (epidemics) during the mid 1960s and late 1980s. APC modelling suggested an increasing cohort effect (adjusted for both age and period) from the birth cohort 1950-54 onwards. Period effects (adjusted for age and cohort) are characterised by an increase in the 1950s (possibly due to changes in diagnostic labelling), minimal or no increases in the mid 1960s and late 1980s (where period peaks had been noted when data were adjusted for age only), and declines in mortality risk subsequent to the periods where age-period analysis had noted increases. Thus, in Australia, some of the mid 1960s epidemic in asthma deaths, and all of the late 1980s mortality increase, seem to be attributable to cohort effects. Conclusions-The increase in asthma mortality cohort effect is consistent with empirical evidence of recent increases in prevalence (and presumably incidence) of asthma in Australia, and suggests the need for more research into the underlying environmental aetiology of this condition.
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This study examined the impact of computer and assistive device use on the employment status and vocational modes of people with physical disabilities in Australia. A survey was distributed to people over 15 years in age with physical disabilities living in the Brisbane area. Responses were received from 82 people, including those with spinal cord injuries, cerebral palsy and muscular dystrophy. Of respondents 46 were employed, 22 were unemployed, and 12 were either students or undertaking voluntary work. Three-quarters of respondents used a computer in their occupations, while 15 used assistive devices. Using logistic regression analysis it was found that gender, education, level of computer skill and computer training were significant predictors of employment outcomes. Neither the age of respondent nor use of assistive software were significant predictors. From information obtained in this study guidelines for a training programme designed to maximize the employability of people with physical disabilities were developed.
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Ross River virus (RRV) is a fascinating, important arbovirus that is endemic and enzootic in Australia and Papua New Guinea and was epidemic in the South Pacific in 1979 and 1980. Infection with RRV may cause disease in humans, typically presenting as peripheral polyarthralgia or arthritis, sometimes with fever and rash. RRV disease notificatïons in Australia average 5,000 per year. The first well-described outbreak occurred in 1928. During World War II there were more outbreaks, and the name epidemic polyarthritis was applied. During a 1956 outbreak, epidemic polyarthritis was linked serologically to a group A arbovirus (Alphavirus). The virus was subsequently isolated from Aedes vigilax mosquitoes in 1963 and then from epidemic polyarthritis patients. We review the literature on the evolutionary biology of RRV, immune response to infection, pathogenesis, serologic diagnosis, disease manifestations, the extraordinary variety of vertebrate hosts, mosquito vectors, and transmission cycles, antibody prevalence, epidemiology of asymptomatic and symptomatic human infection, infection risks, and public health impact. RRV arthritis is due to joint infection, and treatment is currently based on empirical anti-inflammatory regimens. Further research on pathogenesis may improve understanding of the natural history of this disease and lead to new treatment strategies. The burden of morbidity is considerable, and the virus could spread to other countries. To justify and design preventive programs, we need accurate data on economic costs and better understanding of transmission and behavioral and environmental risks.
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Objectives: We studied the association between cigarette smoking and ovarian cancer in a population-based case-control study. Methods: A total of 794 women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer who were aged 18-79 years and resident in one of three Australian states were interviewed, together with 855 controls aged 18-79 years selected at random from the electoral roll from the same states. Information was obtained about cigarette smoking and other factors including age, parity, oral contraceptive use, and reproductive factors. We estimated the relative risk of ovarian cancer associated with cigarette smoking, accounting for histologic type, using multivariable logistic regression to adjust for confounding factors. Results: Women who had ever smoked cigarettes were more likely to develop ovarian cancer than women who had never smoked (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-1.9). Risk was greater for ovarian cancers of borderline malignancy (OR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.4-4.1) than for invasive tumors (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.2-2.4) and the histologic subtype most strongly associated overall was the mucinous subtype among both current smokers (OR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.8-5.7) and past smokers (OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.3-3.9). Conclusions: These data extend recent findings and suggest that cigarette smoking is a risk factor for ovarian cancer, especially mucinous and borderline mucinous types. From a public health viewpoint, this is one of the few reports of a potentially avoidable risk factor for ovarian cancer.
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In order to understand the determinants of schistosome-related hepato- and spleno-megaly better, 14 002 subjects aged 3-60 years (59% male; mean age =32 years) were randomly selected from 43 villages, all in Hunan province, China, where schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma japonicum is endemic. The abdomen of each subject was examined along the mid-sternal (MSL) and mid-clavicular lines, for evidence of current hepato- and/or spleno-megaly, and a questionnaire was used to collect information on the medical history of each individual. Current infections with S. japonicum were detected by stool examination. Almost all (99.8%) of the subjects were ethnically Han by descent and most (77%) were engaged in farming. Although schistosomiasis appeared common (42% of the subjects claiming to have had the disease), only 45% of the subjects said they had received anti-schistosomiasis drugs. Overall, 1982 (14%) of the subjects had S. japonicum infections (as revealed by miracidium-hatching tests and/or Katon Katz smears) when examined and 22% had palpable hepatomegaly (i.e. enlargement of at least 3 cm along the MSL), although only 2.5% had any form of detectable splenomegaly (i.e. a Hackett's grade of at least 1). Multiple logistic regression revealed that male subjects, fishermen, farmers, subjects aged greater than or equal to 25 years, subjects with a history of schistosomiasis, and subjects who had had bloody stools in the previous 2 weeks were all at relatively high risk of hepato- and/or spleno-megaly. In areas moderately endemic for Schistosoma japonicum, occupational exposure and disease history appear to be good predictors of current disease status among older residents. These results reconfirm those reported earlier in the same region.
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Objectives. This report analyzes cigarette smoking over 10 years in populations in the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project (to monitor trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease). Methods. Over 300 000 randomly selected subjects aged 25 to 64 years participated in surveys conducted in geographically defined populations. Results. For men, smoking prevalence decreased by more than 5% in 16 of the 36 study populations, remained static in most others, but increased in Beijing. Where prevalence decreased, this was largely due to higher proportions of never smokers in the younger age groups rather than to smokers quitting. Among women, smoking prevalence increased by more than 5% in 6 populations and decreased by more than 5% in 9 populations. For women, smoking tended to increase in populations with low prevalence and decrease in populations with higher prevalence; for men, the reverse pattern was observed. Conclusions. These data illustrate the evolution of the smoking epidemic in populations and provide the basis for targeted public health interventions to support the WHO priority for tobacco control.
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Australian isolates of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) have been widely scattered geographically, predominantly polyclonal and of the VanB phenotype. Forty-nine VRE were isolated from 47 patients in our hospital from October 1996 to December 1999. Forty-four of these VRE were Enterococcus faecium with a vanA glycopeptide resistance genotype. Four isolates were pathogenic. Thirty-five VRE were from an outbreak in the Renal and Infectious Diseases Units over a four-month period. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) demonstrated that 41 of the 49 VRE were indistinguishable or closely related. Enhanced environmental cleaning, strict contact isolation of colonized patients and reducing inpatient admissions terminated the epidemic. Cohorting of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)-positive patients was restricted because VPE patients occupied the isolation facilities. This resulted in a statistically significant increase in MRSA infections across the hospital. VRE epidemics have the ability to influence the epidemiology of other nosocomial pathogens when infection control resources are exhausted. (C) 2001 The Hospital Infection Society.
Resumo:
During 1996-1998 60,619 mosquitoes were collected around Cairns, Australia and processed for Alphavirus isolation. Thirty-three isolates of Ross River (RR) virus were made from 9 species, Aedes imprimens, Aedes kochi, Aedes notoscriptus, Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Culex gelidus, Mansonia septempunctata, Verrallina (formerly Aedes) carmenti, and Verrallina lineatus. Attempts to isolate RR virus from 121 Aedes aegypti were unsuccessful. Twenty six (79%) of the isolates came from within 1 km of a colony of spectacled flying-foxes, Pteropus conspicillatus. The minimum infection rate for these mosquitoes was 1.0 compared with 0.2 per 1,000 for mosquitoes trapped at all other sites. Ross River virus has not previously been isolated from Ae. imprimens, Cx. gelidus, Ma. septempunctata, Ve. carmenti, or Ve. lineatus. This is also the first isolation of an arbovirus from Cx. gelidus in Australia. In conclusion, the vector status of Ve. carmenti, Ae. aegypti and Mn. septempunctata warrants further study. This study also provides evidence that P. conspicillatus may be a reservoir host.
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The spatial and temporal variations of Ross River virus infections reported in Queensland, Australia, between 1985 and 1996 were studied by using the Geographic Information System. The notified cases of Ross River virus infection came from 489 localities between 1985 and 1988, 805 between 1989 and 1992, and 1,157 between 1993 and 1996 (X (2)((df = 2)) = 680.9; P < 0.001). There was a marked increase in the number of localities where the cases were reported by 65 percent for the period of 1989-1992 and 137 percent for 1993-1996, compared with that for 1985-1988. The geographic distribution of the notified Ross River virus cases has expanded in Queensland over recent years. As Ross River virus disease has impacted considerably on tourism and industry, as well as on residents of affected areas, more research is required to explore the causes of the geographic expansion of the notified Ross River virus infections.