Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Composition and energy density of eggs from two species of freshwater turtle with twofold ranges in egg size

Lipid, protein, ash, carbohydrate and water content and energy density of eggs were measured from different clutches over a range of egg size in two species of freshwater turtle. Dry egg contents consisted of protein (54-60%), lipid (25-31%) and ash (5-6%) while carbohydrate was found to be negligible (

An energy-based model for swing hammer mills

An energy-based swing hammer mill model has been developed for coke oven feed preparation. it comprises a mechanistic power model to determine the dynamic internal recirculation and a perfect mixing mill model with a dual-classification function to mimic the operations of crusher and screen. The model parameters were calibrated using a pilot-scale swing hammer mill at various operating conditions. The effects of the underscreen configurations and the feed sizes on hammer mill operations were demonstrated through the fitted model parameters. Relationships between the model parameters and the machine configurations were established. The model was validated using the independent experimental data of single lithotype coal tests with the same BJD pilot-scale hammer mill and full operation audit data of an industrial hammer mill. The outcome of the energy-based swing hammer mill model is the capability to simulate the impact of changing blends of coal or mill configurations and operating conditions on product size distribution. Alternatively, the model can be used to select the machine settings required to achieve a desired product. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Explicit/implicit partitioning and a new explicit form of the generalized alpha method

Most finite element packages use the Newmark algorithm for time integration of structural dynamics. Various algorithms have been proposed to better optimize the high frequency dissipation of this algorithm. Hulbert and Chung proposed both implicit and explicit forms of the generalized alpha method. The algorithms optimize high frequency dissipation effectively, and despite recent work on algorithms that possess momentum conserving/energy dissipative properties in a non-linear context, the generalized alpha method remains an efficient way to solve many problems, especially with adaptive timestep control. However, the implicit and explicit algorithms use incompatible parameter sets and cannot be used together in a spatial partition, whereas this can be done for the Newmark algorithm, as Hughes and Liu demonstrated, and for the HHT-alpha algorithm developed from it. The present paper shows that the explicit generalized alpha method can be rewritten so that it becomes compatible with the implicit form. All four algorithmic parameters can be matched between the explicit and implicit forms. An element interface between implicit and explicit partitions can then be used, analogous to that devised by Hughes and Liu to extend the Newmark method. The stability of the explicit/implicit algorithm is examined in a linear context and found to exceed that of the explicit partition. The element partition is significantly less dissipative of intermediate frequencies than one using the HHT-alpha method. The explicit algorithm can also be rewritten so that the discrete equation of motion evaluates forces from displacements and velocities found at the predicted mid-point of a cycle. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Use of an accelerated chest pain assessment protocol in patients at intermediate risk of adverse cardiac events

Objective: To determine the feasibility, safety and effectiveness of a structured clinical pathway for stratification and management of patients presenting with chest pain and classified as having intermediate risk of adverse cardiac outcomes in the subsequent six months. Design: Prospective clinical audit. Participants and setting: 630 consecutive patients who presented to the emergency department of a metropolitan tertiary care hospital between January 2000 and June 2001 with chest pain and intermediate-risk features. Intervention: Use of the Accelerated Chest Pain Assessment Protocol (ACPAP), as advocated by the Management of unstable angina guidelines - 2000 from the National Heart Foundation and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand. Main outcome measure: Adverse cardiac events during six-month follow-up. Results: 409 patients (65%) were reclassified as low risk and discharged at a mean of 14 hours after assessment in the chest pain unit. None had missed myocardial infarctions, while three (1%) had cardiac events at six months (all elective revascularisation procedures, with no readmissions with acute coronary syndromes). Another 110 patients (17%) were reclassified as high risk, and 21 (19%) of these had cardiac events (mainly revascularisations) by six months. Patients who were unable to exercise or had non-diagnostic exercise stress test results (equivocal risk) had an intermediate cardiac event rate (8%). Conclusions: This study validates use of ACPAP. The protocol eliminated missed myocardial infarction; allowed early, safe discharge of low-risk patients; and led to early identification and management of high-risk patients.

Total energy expenditure and body composition changes following peripheral blood stem cell transplantation and participation in an exercise programme

The purpose of this investigation was to assess changes in total energy expenditure (TEE), body weight (BW) and body composition following a peripheral blood stem cell transplant and following participation in a 3-month duration, moderate-intensity, mixed-type exercise programme. The doubly labelled and singly labelled water methods were used to measure TEE and total body water (TBW). Body weight and TBW were then used to calculate percentage body fat (%BF), and fat and fat-free mass (FFM). TEE and body composition measures were assessed pretransplant (PI), immediately post-transplant (PII) and 3 months post-PII (PIII). Following PII, 12 patients were divided equally into a control group (CG) or exercise intervention group (EG). While there was no change in TEE between pre- and post-transplant, BW (P

Resting energy expenditure and body composition in children with myelomeningocele

Purpose : Myelomeningocele is a complex disease often complicated by obesity for reasons not well understood. The objectives of this study were to determine body composition and energy expenditure of children with MMC. Methods : Resting energy expenditure (REE), body composition and anthropometry were measured in 19 children with MMC (12 M, 7 F). Total energy expenditure (TEE) was estimated using a 3-day activity record. Energy intake (EI) was measured in seven children (5 M, 2 F) with MMC. Data were then compared with predicted values. Results : Mean REE ( n = 19) was 4680 ±1452 kJ/day (96.1 ±18.1% of predicted REE). The range was large (45.8-125.7% of predicted REE). TEE ( n = 7) was 4344 ±2376 kJ/day, hence only 73 34% of predicted TEE. EI ( n = 7) was 6560 ±1329 kJ/day, approximating a normal energy requirement. Overall, BCM was lower than expected values. Conclusions : REE in children with MMC is variable when compared to predicted values. TEE was found to be lower in children with MMC than predicted values and EI was similar to predicted values in this group of seven children. BCM is reduced in children with MMC when compared to expected values.

Centile reference for total energy expenditure in infants from 1 to 12 months

Background: A knowledge of energy expenditure in infancy is required for the estimation of recommended daily amounts of food energy, for designing artificial infant feeds, and as a reference standard for studies of energy metabolism in disease states. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to construct centile reference charts for total energy expenditure (TEE) in infants across the first year of life. Methods: Repeated measures of TEE using the doubly labeled water technique were made in 162 infants at 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. In total, 322 TEE measurements were obtained. The LMS method with maximum penalized likelihood was used to construct the centile reference charts. Centiles were constructed for TEE expressed as MJ/day and also expressed relative to body weight (BW) and fat-free mass (FFM). Results: TEE increased with age and was 1.40,1.86, 2.64, 3.07 and 3.65 MJ/day at 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, respectively. The standard deviations were 0.43, 0.47, 0.52, 0.66 and 0.88, respectively. TEE in MJ/kg increased from 0.29 to 0.36 and in MJ/day/kg FFM from 0.36 to 0.48. Conclusions: We have presented centile reference charts for TEE expressed as MJ/day and expressed relative to BW and FFM in infants across the first year of life. There was a wide variation or biological scatter in TEE values seen at all ages. We suggest that these centile charts may be used to assess and possibly quantify abnormal energy metabolism in disease states in infants.