Overseas Visitor Deaths in Australia: 1997-2000

Reassuring visitors about their health and safety is particularly important for tourist destinations since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. This study examined the deaths of 1513 overseas visitors to Australia over a four-year period, and found that most deaths (76%) were due to natural causes.Among the accidental deaths, the main causes were motor vehicle crashes and water-related incidents. The study findings support a widely held view that Australia is a safe destination for overseas visitors. It also provides a safety benchmark for other tourist destinations.

Simulation of the influence of rate- and state-dependent friction on the macroscopic behavior of complex fault zones with the lattice solid model

In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

Behavioural responses of two native Australian fish species (Melanotaenia duboulayi and Pseudomugil signifer) to introduced poeciliids (Gambusia holbrooki and Xiphophorus helleri) in controlled conditions

Experimental treatments to compare behavioural responses included native fish species only, natives plus one exotic species and natives plus both exotic species. The mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki frequently attacked both native species, but tended to nip Melanotaenia duboulayi (especially small individuals) and chase Pseudomugil signifer The frequency of attacks by G. holbrooki on M. duboulayi rose when all four fish species were present. When food was added, all four species showed a strong increase in aggression, especially in the four-species treatment, where there were significant increases in the frequency of attacks by the swordtail Xiphophorus helleri on M. duboulay and by M. duboulayi on G. holbrooki, and of conspecific attacks by M. duboulayi. Increased attack frequency was associated with aggregation closer to the water's surface, regardless of the presence of food. The results support the hypothesis that introduced poeciliids can have deleterious competitive effects on native species. However, while juvenile M. duboulayi were particularly vulnerable to the secondary, effects of fin-nipping, R signifer appeared to be more susceptible to physical displacement and reduced food capture success.

Dispersal patterns in a regional koala population in south-east Queensland

Koala dispersal was investigated as part of a detailed ecological study of a nationally significant koala population located 20 km south-east of Brisbane, Queensland. From 1996 to 2000, 195 koalas from three sites were captured and fitted with radio-collars. A total of 40 koalas ( 23 males and 17 females) dispersed from these sites. Most (93%) dispersing individuals were 20 - 36 months of age. Three adult females ( more than 36 months old) dispersed and no adult males dispersed during the study. A significantly higher proportion of young males dispersed than females. Dispersal occurred between June and December, with most dispersal of males commencing in July and August and that of females commencing between September and November prior to, and early in, the annual breeding season. The mean straight-line distance between the natal and breeding home ranges for males and females was similar and was measured at 3.5 km ( range 1.1 - 9.7 km) and 3.4 km ( range 0.3 - 10.6 km) respectively. Dispersing males and females tended to successfully disperse south and west of their natal home ranges and were generally unable to successfully disperse to urban areas within the study area, as a high proportion of the mortality of dispersing koalas was associated with attacks by domestic dogs and with collisions with vehicles on roads. Information from other studies indicates that most young koalas disperse from their natal areas. It is likely that the social behaviour and mating systems of koala populations provide mechanisms for young koalas to disperse. The potential role of dispersal in the dynamics of regional koala populations is discussed.

America's nuclear deterrence in the age of terrorism

The September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the US and the leakage of the Nuclear Posture Report (NPR) spur a complete review of the nuclear doctrine under Pres George W. Bush's administration. Kampmark discusses the contrariness of NPR in relation to America's deterrence of nuclear weapons and the possible proliferation of tactical offensive weapons as compared to strategic nuclear weapons.

The paternity of the price-quality 'value map'

In the literature on firm strategy and product differentiation, consumer price-quality trade-offs are sometimes represented using consumer 'value maps'. These involve the geometric representation of indifferent price and quality combinations as points along curves that are concave to the 'quality' axis. In this paper, it is shown that the value map for price-quality tradeoffs may be derived from a Hicksian compensated demand curve for product quality. The paper provides the theoretical link between analytical methods employed in the existing literature on firm strategy and competitive advantage with the broader body of economic analysis.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 1. Methodology for residual generation

For dynamic simulations to be credible, verification of the computer code must be an integral part of the modelling process. This two-part paper describes a novel approach to verification through program testing and debugging. In Part 1, a methodology is presented for detecting and isolating coding errors using back-to-back testing. Residuals are generated by comparing the output of two independent implementations, in response to identical inputs. The key feature of the methodology is that a specially modified observer is created using one of the implementations, so as to impose an error-dependent structure on these residuals. Each error can be associated with a fixed and known subspace, permitting errors to be isolated to specific equations in the code. It is shown that the geometric properties extend to multiple errors in either one of the two implementations. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

An approach to verifying and debugging simulation models governed by ordinary differential equations: Part 2. Residuals analysis and a case study

In Part 1 of this paper a methodology for back-to-back testing of simulation software was described. Residuals with error-dependent geometric properties were generated. A set of potential coding errors was enumerated, along with a corresponding set of feature matrices, which describe the geometric properties imposed on the residuals by each of the errors. In this part of the paper, an algorithm is developed to isolate the coding errors present by analysing the residuals. A set of errors is isolated when the subspace spanned by their combined feature matrices corresponds to that of the residuals. Individual feature matrices are compared to the residuals and classified as 'definite', 'possible' or 'impossible'. The status of 'possible' errors is resolved using a dynamic subset testing algorithm. To demonstrate and validate the testing methodology presented in Part 1 and the isolation algorithm presented in Part 2, a case study is presented using a model for biological wastewater treatment. Both single and simultaneous errors that are deliberately introduced into the simulation code are correctly detected and isolated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Sex- and race-related differences in cross-sectional geometry and bone density of the femoral mid-shaft in older adults

Background : Femoral shaft fracture incidence increases in older adults and is associated with low-energy trauma. Apart from bone density, the distribution and size of bone contributes to its strength. Aim : To examine if bone geometry and density of the femoral mid-shaft in older adults differs by sex and race, we studied 197 White women, 225 Black women, 242 White men, and 148 Black men aged 70-79 years participating in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study; a prospective cohort study in the USA. A secondary purpose of the study was to examine the association of site-specific muscle and fat to bone geometry and density. Subjects and methods : Subjects were community-dwelling and reported no difficulty walking one-quarter of a mile or climbing stairs. Mid-femoral volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD, mg cm -3 ), total area (TA), cortical area (CA), medullary area (MA), cross-sectional moments of inertia (CSMI: I x , I y , J ), and muscle and fat areas (cm 2 ) were determined by computed tomography (CT; GE CT-9800, 10 mm slice thickness). Results : vBMD was greater in men than women with no difference by race ( p < 0.001). Bone areas and area moments of inertia were also greater in men than women ( p < 0.001), with Black women having higher values than White women for TA and CA. Standardizing geometric parameters for body size differences by dividing by powers of femur length did not negate the sex difference for TA and MA. Significant differences ( p < 0.05) among the four groups also remained for I x and J . Mid-thigh muscle area was an independent contributor to TA in all groups (Std beta = 0.181-0.351, p < 0.05) as well as CA in women (Std beta = 0.246-0.254, p < 0.01) and CSMI in White women (Std beta = 0.175-0.185, p < 0.05). Further, muscle area was a significant contributor to vBMD in Black women. Conclusion : These results indicate that bone geometry and density of the femoral diaphysis differs primarily by sex, rather than race, in older well-functioning adults. In addition, site-specific muscle area appears to have a potential contributory role to bone geometry parameters, especially in women.

Apocalypse forever? International relations implications of 11 September

This is a contribution to ongoing discussion of the international relations issues raised by the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. It acknowledges apparent failings (of analysis or prediction) in the IR literature but then suggests the shortcomings are really the product of divergent traditions of analysis (behaviouralism, structuralism and evolutionism) which isolate different aspects of phenomena for attention. The paper then discusses the contrast between hard power and soft power - to help identify the distinctiveness of the new forms of terrorism (their non-linear objectives and the lack of proportionality involved). It concludes on an encouraging note by urging international cooperation as a solution, even in cases where the protagonists' resentments have tended to militate against conventional channels of dispute resolution.