Response to price and production risk: The case of Australian wheat

A model of Australian wheat grower supply response was specified under the constraints of price and yield uncertainty, risk aversion, partial adjustment, and quadratic costs. The model was solved to obtain area planted. The results of estimation indicate that risk arising from prices and climate have had a significant influence on producer decision making. The coefficient of relative risk aversion and short-run and long-run elasticities of supply with respect to price were calculated. Wheat growers' risk premium, expected at the start of the season for exposed price and yield risk, was 2.8 percent of revenue or 10.4 percent of profit as measured by producer surplus. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Transport properties of strongly correlated metals: A dynamical mean-field approach

The temperature dependence of the transport properties of the metallic phase of a frustrated Hubbard model on the hypercubic lattice at half-filling is calculated. Dynamical mean-held theory, which maps the Hubbard model onto a single impurity,Anderson model that is solved self-consistently, and becomes exact in the limit of large dimensionality, is used. As the temperature increases there is a smooth crossover from coherent Fermi liquid excitations at low temperatures to incoherent excitations at high temperatures. This crossover leads to a nonmonotonic temperature dependence for the resistance, thermopower, and Hall coefficient, unlike in conventional metals. The resistance smoothly increases from a quadratic temperature dependence at low temperatures to large values which can exceed the Mott-Ioffe-Regel value ha/e(2) (where a is a lattice constant) associated with mean free paths less than a lattice constant. Further signatures of the thermal destruction of quasiparticle excitations are a peak in the thermopower and the absence of a Drude peak in the optical conductivity. The results presented here are relevant to a wide range of strongly correlated metals, including transition metal oxides, strontium ruthenates, and organic metals.

Goals and reputations amongst young children - The validation of the importance of goals and reputation enhancement scales

The aim of the present research was to provide school psychologists with valid instruments with which to assess the goals and reputations of young children. This was achieved by ascertaining whether the factor structures and the second-order factor models of the high school versions of the Importance of Goals (Carroll, et al., 1997) and Reputation Enhancement Scales (Carroll, et al., 1999) could be replicated with a primary school sample. Eight hundred and eighty-six 10 to 12 year old children were administered modified versions of the two scales, which were combined and renamed the Children's Activity Questionnaire. For the two scales, the factor structure proved replicable and reliable with the primary school sample. A comparison between the factor loadings of the primary school and the high school samples using the coefficient of congruence procedure demonstrated similarity indicating that the scales are replicable and able to be used with a younger primary school sample. Structural equation modelling indicated that the second-order factor structure of the Importance of Goals Scale was acceptable but this was not the case for the second-order factor structure of the Reputation Enhancement Scale.

Cyclotron effective masses in layered metals

Many layered metals such as quasi-two-dimensional organic molecular crystals show properties consistent with a Fermi-liquid description at low temperatures. The effective masses extracted from the temperature dependence of the magnetic oscillations observed in these materials are in the range, m(c)*/m(e) similar to 1 - 7, suggesting that these systems are strongly correlated. However, the ratio m(c)*/m(e) contains both the renormalization due to the electron-electron interaction and the periodic potential of the lattice. We show that for any quasi-two-dimensional band structure, the cyclotron mass is proportional to the density-of-states at the Fermi energy. Due to Luttinger's theorem, this result is also valid in the presence of interactions. We then evaluate m(c) for several model band structures for the beta, kappa, and theta families of (BEDT-TTF)(2)X, where BEDT-TTF is bis-(ethylenedithia-tetrathiafulvalene) and X is an anion. We find that for kappa-(BEDT-TTF)(2)X, the cyclotron mass of the beta orbit, m(c)*(beta) is close to 2 m(c)*(alpha), where m(c)*(alpha) is the effective mass of the alpha orbit. This result is fairly insensitive to the band-structure details. For a wide range of materials we compare values of the cyclotron mass deduced from band-structure calculations to values deduced from measurements of magnetic oscillations and the specific-heat coefficient gamma.

Kinetics of propranolol uptake in muscle, skin, and fat of the isolated perfused rat hindlimb

The tissue distribution kinetics of a highly bound solute, propranolol, was investigated in a heterogeneous organ, the isolated perfused limb, using the impulse-response technique and destructive sampling. The propranolol concentration in muscle, skin, and fat as well as in outflow perfusate was measured up to 30 min after injection. The resulting data were analysed assuming (1) vascular, muscle, skin and fat compartments as well mixed (compartmental model) and (2) using a distributed-in-space model which accounts for the noninstantaneous intravascular mixing and tissue distribution processes but consists only of a vascular and extravascular phase (two-phase model). The compartmental model adequately described propranolol concentration-time data in the three tissue compartments and the outflow concentration-time curve (except of the early mixing phase). In contrast, the two-phase model better described the outflow concentration-time curve but is limited in accounting only for the distribution kinetics in the dominant tissue, the muscle. The two-phase model well described the time course of propranolol concentration in muscle tissue, with parameter estimates similar to those obtained with the compartmental model. The results suggest, first that the uptake kinetics of propranolol into skin and fat cannot be analysed on the basis of outflow data alone and, second that the assumption of well-mixed compartments is a valid approximation from a practical point of view las, e.g., in physiological based pharmacokinetic modelling). The steady-state distribution volumes of skin and fat were only 16 and 4%, respectively, of that of muscle tissue (16.7 ml), with higher partition coefficient in fat (6.36) than in skin (2.64) and muscle (2.79. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Feed intake and liveweight responses to nitrogen and/or protein supplements by steers of Bos taurus, Bos indicus and Bos taurus x Bos indicus breed types offered a low quality grass hay

Thirty steers were used in two pen experiments (Expts 1 and 2). and 27 of these in a third (Expt 3), to quantify their responses of hay intake, rumen ammonia nitrogen (RAN) concentrations, and liveweight to inputs of rumen soluble nitrogen (urea) and rumen undegradable protein (formaldehyde-treated casein; F-casein) when added to a basal diet of low quality hays. The hays were made From unimproved native pastures typical of those grazed by cattle in the subtropics of Australia and contained 7.8 g N/kg dry matter (DM) with coefficient of organic matter digestibility of 0.503 in Expts 1 and 2, and 5.2 g N/kg DM with a digestibility range from 0.385 to 0.448 in Expt 3. The steers (15 months old) were either Brahman (B), Hereford (H) or the F-1 Brahman x Hereford (BH) cross. Steers were offered supplementary minerals with the hays in each experiment. In Expt 1 (35 days) urea was sprayed on part of the hay, allowing for daily urea intakes (g/steer) of either 0, 5, 11, 16 or 26. In Expt 2 (42 days), F-casein was offered daily (g/steer) at either 0, 75, 150, 225 or 300 and in Expt 3 (56 days) discrete offerings were made of soluble casein (225 g/day), of urea (18 g/day) + F-casein (225 g/day) or of nil. There were significant linear effects of urea intake upon hay intake and liveweight change of steers. However, B steers had smaller increases in intake and liveweight change than did H steers, and B steers did not have a linear increase in RAN concentrations with increasing urea intake as did H and SH steers. In Expt 2 there were significant linear effects of F-casein supplements on hay intake and liveweight change of steers and a significant improvement in their feed conversion ratio (i.e. DM intake:liveweight change). The B steers did not differ from H and BH steers in liveweight change but had significantly lower hay intakes and non-significantly smaller increases in RAN with increasing F-casein intake. In Expt 3, hay intake of the steers increased with soluble casein (by 16.8 %) and with urea + F-casein (24.5 %). Only steers given urea + F-casein had a high RAN concentration (94 mg/l) and a high liveweight gain. The B steers had a liveweight loss and a lower hay intake than H or BH steers in Expt 3 but a higher RAN concentration. These studies have indicated the importance of the form and quantity of additional N required by cattle of differing breed types to optimize their feed intake and liveweight gain when offered low-N, low-digestible hays.

C-13-NMR, H-1-NMR, and FT-Raman study of radiation-induced modifications in radiation dosimetry polymer gels

H-1- and C-13-NMR spectroscopy and FT-Raman spectroscopy are used to investigate the properties of a polymer gel dosimeter post-irradiation. The polymer gel (PACT) is composed of acrylamide, N,N'-methylene-bisacrylamide, gelatin, and water. The formation of a polyacrylamide network within the gelatin matrix follows a dose dependence nonlinearly correlated to the disappearance of the double bonds from the dissolved monomers within the absorbed dose range of 0-50 Gy. The signal from the gelatin remains constant with irradiation. We show that the NMR spin-spin relaxation times (T-2) of PAGs irradiated to up to 50 Gy measured in a NMR spectrometer and a clinical magnetic resonance imaging scanner can be modeled using the spectroscopic intensity of the growing polymer network. More specifically, we show that the nonlinear T-2 dependence against dose can be understood in terms of the fraction of protons in three different proton pools. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Metabolic and kinetic analysis of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) production by recombinant Escherichia coli

A quantitatively repeatable protocol was developed for poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) (PHB) production by Escherichia coli XL1-Blue (pSYL107). Two constant-glucose fed-batch fermentations of duration 25 h were carried out in a 5-L bioreactor, with the measured oxygen volumetric mass-transfer coefficient (k(L)a) held constant at 1.1 min(-1). All major consumption and production rates were quantified. The intracellular concentration profiles of acetyl-CoA (300 to 600 mug.g RCM-1) and 3-hydroxy-butyryl-CoA (20 to 40 mug.g RCM-1) were measured, which is the first time this has been performed for E. coli during PHB production. The kinetics of PHB production were examined and likely ranges were established for polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) enzyme activity and the concentration of pathway metabolites. These measured and estimated values are quite similar to the available literature estimates for the native PHB producer Ralstonia eutropha. Metabolic control analysis performed on the PHB metabolic pathway showed that the PHB flux was highly sensitive to acetyl-CoA/CoA ratio (response coefficient 0.8), total acetyl-CoA + CoA concentration (response coefficient 0.7), and pH (response coefficient -1.25). It was less sensitive (response coefficient 0.25) to NADPH/NADP ratio. NADP(H) concentration (NADPH + NADP) had a negligible effect. No single enzyme had a dominant flux control coefficient under the experimental conditions examined (0.6, 0.25, and 0.15 for 3-ketoacyl-CoA reductase, PHA synthase, and 3-ketothiolase, respectively). In conjunction with metabolic flux analysis, kinetic analysis was used to provide a metabolic explanation for the observed fermentation profile. In particular, the rapid onset of PHB production was shown to be caused by oxygen limitation, which initiated a cascade of secondary metabolic events, including cessation of TCA cycle flux and an increase in acetyl-CoA/CoA ratio. (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons. Inc. Biotechnol Bioeng 74: 70-80, 2001.

Residence time distributions of gas flowing through rotating drum bioreactors

Residence time distribution studies of gas through a rotating drum bioreactor for solid-state fermentation were performed using carbon monoxide as a tracer gas. The exit concentration as a function of time differed considerably from profiles expected for plug flow, plug flow with axial dispersion, and continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) models. The data were then fitted by least-squares analysis to mathematical models describing a central plug flow region surrounded by either one dead region (a three-parameter model) or two dead regions (a five-parameter model). Model parameters were the dispersion coefficient in the central plug flow region, the volumes of the dead regions, and the exchange rates between the different regions. The superficial velocity of the gas through the reactor has a large effect on parameter values. Increased superficial velocity tends to decrease dead region volumes, interregion transfer rates, and axial dispersion. The significant deviation from CSTR, plug flow, and plug flow with axial dispersion of the residence time distribution of gas within small-scale reactors can lead to underestimation of the calculation of mass and heat transfer coefficients and hence has implications for reactor design and scaleup. (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Quasars from a complete spectroscopic survey

With the advent of multi-fibre spectrographs such as the 'Two-Degree Field' (2dF) instrument at the Angle-Australian Telescope, quasar surveys that are free of any preselection of candidates and any biases this implies have become possible for the first time. The first of these is that which is being undertaken as part of the Fornax Spectroscopic Survey, a survey of the area around the Fornax Cluster of galaxies, and aims to obtain the spectra of all objects in the magnitude range 16.5 < b(j) < 19.7. To date, 3679 objects in the central pi -deg(2) area have been successfully identified from their spectral characteristics. Of these, 71 are found to be quasars, 61 with redshifts 0.3 < z < 2.2 and 10 with redshifts z > 2.2. Using this complete quasar sample, a new determination of quasar number counts is made, enabling an independent check of existing quasars surveys. Cumulative counts per square degree at a magnitude limit of b(j) < 19.5 are found to be 11.5 +/- 2.2 for 0.3 < z < 2.2, 2.22 +/- 0.93 for z > 2.2 and 13.7 +/- 3.1 for z > 0.3. Given the likely detection of extra quasars in the Fornax survey, we make a more detailed examination of existing quasar selection techniques. First, looking at the use of a stellar criterion, four of the 71 quasars are 'non-stellar' on the basis of the automated plate measuring facility (APM) b(j) classification, however inspection shows all are consistent with stellar, but misclassified due to image confusion. Examining the ultraviolet excess and multicolour selection techniques, for the selection criteria investigated, ultraviolet excess would find 69 +/- 6 per cent of our 0.3 < z < 2.2 quasars and only 50(-18)(+14), per cent of our z > 2.2 quasars, while the completeness level for multicolour selection is found to be 90(-4)(+3) per cent for 0.3 < z < 2.2 quasars and 80(-12)(+14) per cent for z > 2.2 quasars. The extra quasars detected by our all-object survey thus have unusually red star-like colours, and this appears to be a result of the continuum shape rather than any emission features. An intrinsic dust extinction model may, at least partly, account for the red colours.

Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems

Ecological extinction caused by overfishing precedes all other pervasive human disturbance to coastal ecosystems, including pollution, degradation of water quality, and anthropogenic climate change. Historical abundances of large consumer species were fantastically large in comparison with recent observations. Paleoecological, archaeological, and historical data show that time lags of decades to centuries occurred between the onset of overfishing and consequent changes in ecological communities, because unfished species of similar trophic level assumed the ecological roles of overfished species until they too were overfished or died of epidemic diseases related to overcrowding. Retrospective data not only help to clarify underlying causes and rates of ecological change, but they also demonstrate achievable goals for restoration and management of coastal ecosystems that could not even be contemplated based on the limited perspective of recent observations alone.

Diffusion- and perfusion-weighted MRI response to thrombolysis in stroke

Diffusion- and perfusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging provides important pathophysiological information in acute bra-in ischemia. We performed a prospective study in 19 sub-6-hour stroke patients using serial diffusion- and perfusion-weighted imaging before intravenous thrombolysis, with repeat studies, both subacutely and at outcome. For comparison of ischemic lesion evolution and clinical outcome, we used a historical control group of 21 sub-6-hour ischemic stroke patients studied serially with diffusion- and perfusion-weighted imaging. The two groups were well matched for the baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and magnetic resonance parameters. Perfusion-weighted imaging-diffusion-weighted imaging mismatch was present in 16 of 19 patients treated with tissue plasminogen activator, and 16 of 21 controls. Perfusion-weighted imaging-diffusion-weighted imaging mismatch patients treated with tissue plaminogen activator had higher recanalization rates and enhanced reperfusion at day 3 (81% vs 47% in controls), and a greater proportion of severely hypoperfused acute mismatch tissue not progressing to infarction (82% vs -25% in controls). Despite similar baseline diffusion-weighted imaging lesions, infarct expansion was less in the recombinant tissue plaminogen activator group (14cm(3) vs 56cm(3) in controls). The positive effect of thrombolysis on lesion growth in mismatch patients translated into a greater improvement in baseline to outcome National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale in the group treated with recombinant tissue plaminogen activator, and a significantly larger proportion of patients treated with recombinant tissue plaminogen activator having a clinically meaningful improvement in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale of;2:7 points. The natural evolution of acute perfusion-weighted imaging-diffusion-weighted imaging mismatch tissue may be altered by thrombolysis, with improved stroke outcome. This has implications for the use of diffusion- and perfusion-weighted imaging in selecting and monitoring patients for thrombolytic therapy.

Community structure of Quaternary coral reefs compared with Recent life and death assemblages

This paper assesses the reliability with which fossil reefs record the diversity and community structure of adjacent Recent reefs. The diversity and taxonomic composition of Holocene raised fossil reefs was compared with those of modern reef coral life and death assemblages in adjacent moderate and low-energy shallow reef habitats Of Madang Lagoon, Papua New Guinea. Species richness per sample area and Shannon-Wiener diversity (H') were highest in the fossil reefs, intermediate in the life assemblages, and lowest in the death assemblages. The taxonomic composition of the fossil reefs was most similar to the combination of the life and death assemblages from the modern reefs adjacent to the two fossil reefs. Depth zonation was recorded accurately in the fossil reefs. The Madang fossil reefs represent time-averaged composites of the combined life and death assemblages as they existed at the time the reef was uplifted. Because fossil reefs include overlapping cohorts from the life and death assemblages, lagoonal facies of fossil reefs are dominated by the dominant sediment-producing taxa, which are not necessarily the most abundant in the life assemblage. Rare or slow-growing taxa accumulate more slowly than the encasing sediments and are underrepresented in fossil reef lagoons. Time-averaging dilutes the contribution of rare taxa, rather than concentrating their contribution. Consequently, fidelity indices developed for mollusks in sediments yield low values in coral reef death and fossil assemblages. Branching corals dominate lagoonal facies of fossil reefs because they are abundant, they grow and produce sediment rapidly, and most of the sediment they produce is not exported. Fossil reefs distinguished kilometer-scale variations in community structure more clearly than did the modern life assemblages. This difference implies that fossil,reefs may provide a better long-term record of community structure than modern reefs. This difference also suggests that modern kilometer-scale variation in coral reef community structure may have been reduced by anthropogenic degradation, even in the relatively unimpacted reefs of Madang Lagoon. Holocene and Pleistocene fossil reefs provide a time-integrated historical record of community composition and may be used as long-term benchmarks for comparison with modern, degraded, nearshore reefs. Comparisons between fossil reefs and degraded modern reefs display gross changes in community structure more effectively than they demonstrate local extinction of rare taxa.