A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

The last dicynodont: An Australian Cretaceous relict

Some long-forgotten fossil evidence reveals that a dicynodont (mammal-like reptile of the infraorder Dicynodontia) inhabited Australia as recently as the Early Cretaceous, ca. 110 Myr after the supposed extinction of dicynodonts in the Late Triassic. This remarkably late occurrence more than doubles the known duration of dicynodont history (from ca. 63 Myr to ca. 170 Myr) and betrays the profound impact of geographical isolation on Australian terrestrial faunas through the Mesozoic. Australia's late-surviving dicynodont may be envisaged as a counterpart of the ceratopians (homed dinosaurs) in Cretaceous tetrapod faunas of Asia and North America.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Reciprocal changes in forebrain contents of glycogen and of glutamate/glutamine during early memory consolidation in the day-old chick

Passive avoidance learning is with advantage studied in day-old chicks trained to distinguish between beads of two different colors, of which one at training was associated with aversive taste. During the first 30-min post-training, two periods of glutamate release occur in the forebrain. One period is immediately after the aversive experience, when glutamate release is confined to the left hemisphere. A second release, 30 min later, may be bilateral, perhaps with preponderance of the right hemisphere. The present study showed increased pool sizes of glutamate and glutamine, specifically in the left hemisphere, at the time when the first glutamate release occurs, indicating de novo synthesis of glutamate/glutamine from glucose or glycogen, which are the only possible substrates. Behavioral evidence that memory is extinguished by intracranial administration at this time of iodoacetate, an inhibitor of glycolysis and glycogenolysis, and that the extinction of memory is counteracted by injection of glutamine, supports this concept. A decrease in forebrain glycogen of similar magnitude and coinciding with the increase in glutamate and glutamine suggests that glycogen rather than glucose is the main source of newly synthesized glutamate/glutamine. The second activation of glutamatergic activity 30 min after training, when memory is consolidated into stable, long-term memory, is associated with a bilateral increase in pool size of glutamate/glutamine. No glycogenolysis was observed at this time, but again there is a temporal correlation with sensitivity to inhibition by iodoacetate and rescue by glutamine, indicating the importance of de novo synthesis of glutamate/glutamine from glucose or glycogen. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.