138 resultados para Evaluate Risk
Resumo:
The offspringof older fathers have an increased risk of various disorders that may be due to the accumulation of DNA mutations during spermatogenesis. Previous studies have suggested increased paternal age may be a risk factor for schizophrenia. The aim of the current study was to examine paternal age as a risk factor for schizophrenia andror psychosis. We used data from three sources: a population-based cohort studyŽDenmark., and two case-control studiesŽSweden and Australia.. In the Danish and Australian studies, we examined both psychosis and schizophrenia. In the Swedish study we examined psychosis only. After controllingfor the effect of maternal age, increased paternal age was significantly associated with increased risk of both psychosis and schizophrenia in the Danish study and of psychosis in the Swedish study. The Australian study found no association between paternal age and risk of psychosis or schizophrenia. In all three studies the relationship between paternal age and risk of disorder in the offspring was AUB-shaped. In addition to an increased risk for the offspringof older father Ž)35 years., there was a non-significant increase for the offspringof fathers aged less than 20 years. The possible role of paternally derived DNA mutations andror other psychosocial factors associated with older paternal age warrants further research. The ‘U’-shaped relationship suggests that factors other than DNA mutations may warrant consideration in this research. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.
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Objectives: Resternotomy is a common part of cardiac surgical practice. Associated with resternotomy are the risks of cardiac injury and catastrophic hemorrhage and the subsequent elevated morbidity and mortality in the operating room or during the postoperative period. The technique of direct vision resternotomy is safe and has fewer, if any, serious cardiac injuries. The technique, the reduced need for groin cannulation and the overall low operative mortality and morbidity are the focus of this restrospective analysis. Methods: The records of 495 patients undergoing 546 resternotomies over a 21-year period to January 2000 were reviewed. All consecutive reoperations by the one surgeon comprised patients over the age of 20 at first resternotomy: M:F 343:203, mean age 57 years (range 20 to 85, median age 60). The mean NYHA grade was 2.3 [with 67 patients (1), 273 (11),159 (111), 43 (IV), and 4 (V classification)] with elective reoperation in 94.6%. Cardiac injury was graded into five groups and the incidence and reasons for groin cannulation estimated. The morbidity and mortality as a result of the reoperation and resternotomy were assessed. Results: The hospital/30 day mortality was 2.9% (95% Cl: 1.6%-4.4%) (16 deaths) over the 21 years. First (481), second (53), and third (12) resternotomies produced 307 uncomplicated technical reopenings, 203 slower but uncomplicated procedures, 9 minor superficial cardiac lacerations, and no moderate or severe cardiac injuries. Direct vision resternotomy is crystalized into the principle that only adhesions that are visualized from below are divided and only sternal bone that is freed of adhesions is sewn. Groin exposure was never performed prophylactically for resternotomy. Fourteen patients (2.6%) had such cannulation for aortic dissection/aneurysm (9 patients), excessive sternal adherence of cardiac structures (3 patients), presurgery cardiac arrest (1 patient), and high aortic cannulation desired and not possible (1 patient). The average postop blood loss was 594 mL (95% CI:558-631) in the first 12 hours. The need to return to the operating room for control of excessive bleeding was 2% (11 patients). Blood transfusion was given in 65% of the resternotomy procedures over the 21 years (mean 854 mL 95% Cl 765-945 mL) and 41% over the last 5 years. Conclusions: The technique of direct vision resternotomy has been associated with zero moderate or major cardiac injury/catastrophic hemorrhage at reoperation. Few patients have required groin cannulation. In the postoperative period, there was acceptable blood loss, transfusion rates, reduced morbidity, and moderate low mortality for this potentially high risk group.
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Background: The trend in breast cancer surgery is toward more conservative operative procedures. The new staging technique of sentinel node biopsy facilitates the identification of pathological node-negative patients in whom axillary dissection may be avoided. However, patients with a positive sentinel node biopsy would require a thorough examination of their nodal status. An axillary dissection provides good local control, and accurate staging and prognostic information to inform decisions about adjuvant therapy. In addition, the survival benefit of axillary treatment is still debated. The objectives of the present study were to examine the pattern of lymph node metastases in the axilla, and evaluate the merits of a level III axillary dissection. Methods : Between June 1997 and May 2000, 308 patients underwent a total of 320 level III dissections as part of their treatment for operable invasive breast cancer. The three axillary levels were marked intraoperatively, and the contents in each level were submitted and examined separately. The patterns of axillary lymph node (ALN) metastases were examined, and factors associated with 4 positive nodes, and level III ALN metastases were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: An average of 25 lymph nodes were examined per case (range: 8-54), and using strict anatomical criteria, the mean numbers of ALN found in levels I, II and III were 18 (range: 2-43), 4 (range: 0 19), and 3 ( range: 0-11), respectively. Axillary lymph node involvement was found in 45% of the cases (143/320). Of the 143 cases, 78% (n = 111) had involvement of level I nodes only, and 21% (n = 30) had positive ALN in levels II and, or, III, in addition to level I. Involvement of lymph nodes in level II or III without a level I metastasis was found in two cases only (0.6%). By including level II, in addition to level I, in the dissection, four cases (1%) were converted from one to three positive nodes to 4 positive nodes (P = 0.64). By the inclusion of level III to a level I and II dissection, three cases (1%) were converted from one to three positive nodes to 4 positive nodes (P = 0.74). Involvement of lymph nodes in level III was found in 22 cases (7%), and 51 cases (16%) had 4 positive nodes. Palpability of ALN, pathological tumour size, and lymphovascular invasion (LVI), were significantly associated with level III involvement and 4 positive nodes by univariate and multivariate analyses. The frequencies of level III involvement and 4 positive nodes in patients with palpable ALN were 22% and 42%, respectively. The corresponding frequencies in patients with a clinically negative axilla, and a primary tumour which was >20 mm and LVI positive, were over 14% and 31%, respectively. Conclusion: Level III axillary dissection is appropriate for patients with palpable ALN, and in those with a tumour which is >20 mm and LVI positive, principally to reduce the risk of axillary recurrence. Staging accuracy is achieved with a level II dissection, or even a level I dissection alone based on strict anatomical criteria. Sentinel node biopsy is a promising technique in identifying pathological node-positive patients in whom an axillary clearance provides optimal local control and staging information.
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In a primary analysis of a large recently completed randomized trial in 915 high-risk patients undergoing major abdominal surgery, we found no difference in outcome between patients receiving perioperative epidural analgesia and those receiving IV opioids, apart from the incidence of respiratory failure. Therefore, we performed a selected number of predetermined subgroup analyses to identify specific types of patients who may have derived benefit from epidural analgesia. We found no difference in outcome between epidural and control groups in subgroups at increased risk of respiratory or cardiac complications or undergoing aortic surgery, nor in a subgroup with failed epidural block (all P > 0.05). There was a small reduction in the duration of postoperative ventilation (geometric mean [SD]: control group, 0.3 [6.5] h, versus epidural group, 0.2 [4.8] h, P = 0.048). No differences were found in length of stay in intensive care or in the hospital. There was no relationship between frequency of use of epidural analgesia in routine practice outside the trial and benefit from epidural analgesia in the trial. We found no evidence that perioperative epidural analgesia significantly influences major morbidity or mortality after major abdominal surgery.
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In this paper, it is shown that, for a wide range of risk-averse generalized expected utility preferences, independent risks are complementary, contrary to the results for expected utility preferences satisfying conditions such as proper and standard risk aversion.
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Background and Purpose - This study was undertaken to better clarify the risks associated with cigarette smoking and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods - The study included 432 incident cases of SAH frequency matched to 473 community SAH-free controls to determine dose-dependent associations of active and passive smoking ( at home) and smoking cessation with SAH. Results - Compared with never smokers not exposed to passive smoking, the adjusted odds ratio for SAH among current smokers was 5.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1 to 8.1); for past smokers, 1.2 ( 95% CI, 0.8 to 2.0); and for passive smokers, 0.9 ( 95% CI, 0.6 to 1.5). Current and lifetime exposures showed a clear dose-dependent effect, and risks appeared more prominent in women and for aneurysmal SAH. Approximately 1 in 3 cases of SAH could be attributed to current smoking, but risks decline quickly after smoking cessation, even among heavy smokers. Conclusions - A strong positive association was found between cigarette smoking and SAH, especially for aneurysmal SAH and women, which is virtually eliminated within a few years of smoking cessation. Large opportunities exist for preventing SAH through smoking avoidance and cessation programs.
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Background and Purpose-Limited information exists on the long-term prognosis after first-ever stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute frequency of first recurrent stroke and disability and the relative frequency of recurrent stroke over 10 years after first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who lived in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth were registered prospectively. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up 10 years after the index event. Results-Over 10 years of follow-up, the cumulative risk of a first recurrent stroke was 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34 to 51). After the first year after first-ever stroke, the average annual risk of recurrent stroke was approximate to4%. Case fatality at 30 days after first recurrent stroke was 41%, which was significantly greater than the case fatality at 30 days after first-ever stroke (22%) (P=0.003). For 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, the 10-year cumulative risk of death or new institutionalization was 79% (95% CI, 73 to 85) and of death or new disability was 87% (95% CI, 81 to 92). Conclusions-Over 10 years of follow-up, the risk of first recurrent stroke is 6 times greater than the risk of first-ever stroke in the general population of the same age and sex, almost one half of survivors remain disabled, and one seventh require institutional care. Effective strategies for prevention of stroke need to be implemented early, monitored frequently, and maintained long term after first-ever stroke.
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The prevalence of colonization with the anaerobic intestinal spirochaetes Brachyspira aalborgi and Brachyspira pilosicoli was investigated in humans (n = 316) and dogs (n = 101) living on three tea estates in Assam, India. Colonization was detected using PCR on DNA from faeces. Nineteen (6%) human faecal samples contained B. aalborgi DNA, 80 (25.3%) contained B. pilosicoli DNA, and 10 (3.2%) contained DNA from both species. One canine sample contained DNA from B. pilosicoli. Significant factors for B. aalborgi colonization in logistic regression were: infection of family members with B. aalborgi (P < 0.001), being a resident of Balipara (P = 0.03), and use of water treatment (P = 0.03). For B. pilosicoli, significant factors were: other family members being positive for B. pilosicoli (P < 0.001), water obtained from a well (P = 0.006), water treatment (P = 0.03), and not having visited a doctor in the previous 12 months (P = 0.03).
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This study examined whether people born in other countries had higher rates of death and hospitalization due to road crashes than people born in Australia. Data on deaths that occurred in the whole of Australia between 1994 and 1997 and hospitalizations that occurred in the state of New South Wales, Australia, between I July 1995 and 30 June 1997 due to road crashes were analyzed. The rates of death and hospitalization, adjusted for age and area of residence, were calculated using population data from the 1996 Australian census. The study categorized people born in other countries according to the language (English speaking, non-English speaking) and the road convention (left-hand side, right-hand side) of their country of birth. Australia has the left-hand side driving convention. The study found that drivers born in other countries had rates of death or hospitalization due to road trauma equal to or below those of Australian born drivers. In contrast, pedestrians born in other countries, especially older pedestrians had higher rates of death and hospitalization due to road crashes. Pedestrians aged 60 years or more born in non-English speaking countries where traffic travels on the right-hand side of the road had risks about twice those of Australian born pedestrians in the same age group. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence, intensity and associated risk factors for infection with Ascaris, hookworms and Trichuris in three tea-growing communities in Assam, India. METHODS Single faecal samples were collected from 328 individuals and subjected to centrifugal floatation and the Kato Katz quantitation technique and prevalence and intensities of infection with each parasite calculated. Associations between parasite prevalence, intensity and host and environmental factors were then made using both univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS The overall prevalence of Ascaris was 38% [95% confidence interval (CI): 33, 43], and the individual prevalence of hookworm and Trichuris was 43% (95% CI: 38, 49). The strongest predictors for the intensity of one or more geohelminths using multiple regression (P less than or equal to 0.10) were socioeconomic status, age, household crowding, level of education, religion, use of footwear when outdoors, defecation practices, pig ownership and water source. CONCLUSION A universal blanket treatment with broad-spectrum anthelmintics together with promotion of scholastic and health education and improvements in sanitation is recommended for helminth control in the communities under study.
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Background: Cohort studies have shown that smoking has a substantial influence on coronary heart disease mortality in young people. Population based data on non-fatal events have been sparse, however. Objective: To study the impact of smoking on the risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (MI) in young middle age people. Methods: From 1985 to 1994 all non-fatal MI events in the age group 35 - 64 were registered in men and women in the WHO MONICA ( multinational monitoring of trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) project populations ( 18 762 events in men and 4047 in women from 32 populations from 21 countries). In the same populations and age groups 65 741 men and 66 717 women participated in the surveys of risk factors ( overall response rate 72%). The relative risk of non-fatal MI for current smokers was compared with non-smokers, by sex and five year age group. Results: The prevalence of smoking in people aged 35 - 39 years who experienced non-fatal MI events was 81% in men and 77% in women. It declined with increasing age to 45% in men aged 60 - 64 years and 36% in women, respectively. In the 35 - 39 years age group the relative risk of non-fatal MI for smokers was 4.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9 to 6.1) in men and 5.3 ( 95% CI 3.2 to 8.7) in women, and the population attributable fractions were 65% and 55%, respectively. Conclusions: During the study period more than half of the non-fatal MIs occurring in young middle age people can be attributed to smoking.