Risk attitude, planting conditions and the value of seasonal forecasts to a dryland wheat grower

The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.

Characterizing QALYs under a general rank dependent utility model

This paper provides a characterization of QALYs, the most important outcome measure in medical decision making, in the context of a general rank dependent utility model. We show that both for chronic and for nonchronic health states the characterization of QALYs depends on intuitive conditions. This facilitates the assessment of the validity of QALYs in rank dependent non-expected utility theories and a comparison with other utility based measures of health.

The application of adaptive partitioned random search in feature selection problem

Feature selection is one of important and frequently used techniques in data preprocessing. It can improve the efficiency and the effectiveness of data mining by reducing the dimensions of feature space and removing the irrelevant and redundant information. Feature selection can be viewed as a global optimization problem of finding a minimum set of M relevant features that describes the dataset as well as the original N attributes. In this paper, we apply the adaptive partitioned random search strategy into our feature selection algorithm. Under this search strategy, the partition structure and evaluation function is proposed for feature selection problem. This algorithm ensures the global optimal solution in theory and avoids complete randomness in search direction. The good property of our algorithm is shown through the theoretical analysis.

Children and economic development: Family size, gender preferences and human capital formation - theory and Indian cases

In the light of Gary Becker's economic theory of the family, considers how economic cost and benefit factors can influence the size of families that parents decide to have. Some support for the importance of such factors is found from results of structured interviews with wives in Kondh-dominated villages in western Orissa. These results are at variance with the hypothesis of Malthus about population growth. Factors that may alter the optimal family size as development proceeds are discussed. It is found in our sampling that, on the whole, there is a preference for daughters rather than sons although this is not as strong in the Kondh-dominated villages as in poor villages in the Santal tribal belt of West Bengal. While in the Kondh-dominated villages some discrimination in access to education in favour of boys compared to girls is present, little such or no such discrimination occurs in relation to access to food and medical attention. In the villages surveyed in the West Bengal Santal tribal belt, discrimination in favour of boys is more pronounced than in the Kondh-dominated area in Orissa. While economic considerations help to explain gender discrimination between boys and girls, we find that social and cultural factors also play a major role. Parents in a similar economic situation seem to display substantially different patterns of gender discrimination between children depending on their social and cultural content. It seems that the extent to which economic theories of the family explain family preferences and behaviour depend significantly on the social and cultural context in which they are to be applied.

Recreational fishing: Its expansion, its economic value and aquaculture's role in sustaining it

Economic growth usually leads to a substantial increase in the demand for recreational fishing, and China is likely to follow this trend. Factors influencing this expansion in demand are identified. Recreational fishing is of major economic importance in higher income countries and indicators of its economic significance are given. Growing demand for recreational fishing results in intensified involvement of recreational fishers in conflicts about resource use. With increasing demand for recreational fishing, recreational fishers face growing competition with one another for limited fish stocks and with commercial fishers. Their concerns for environmental threats to fish stocks also intensify. Furthermore, some strategies of recreational fishers are increasingly criticised by conservationists. Governments, therefore, are put under pressure to adopt policies to address these conflicts. Some of the policy measures adopted to help sustain the fisheries and reduce conflict are outlined. These include limits on the catch and exclusive zones for recreational fishing. However, wild stocks of fish are likely to remain under mounting harvesting and other pressures. Therefore, we need to consider the role that aquaculture can play in overcoming these problems. The possible ways in which aquaculture can do this are outlined and discussed.

Marital status, farm size and other influences on the extent of cash cropping in Kenya: A household case study

This article examines the effects of marital status, farm size and other factors on the extent of cash cropping (and allocation of land use) by means of a case study in the Nyeri district in Kenya. It was found that married women are involved in the production of a relatively greater amount of output of cash crops than unmarried women since husbands prefer to have more land under cash crops than food crops. Farmers with better quality land allocate a high proportion of it to non-food cash crops, which may expose some households to greater risks of possible famine. The proportion of land allocated to food crops declines as the farm size increases while the proportion of land allocated to non-food cash crops rises as the size of farm increases. Age is also inversely associated with subsistence. Education, though inversely associated with subsistence farming does not appear to be statistically very significant as an influence on the composition of land use and composition of farm output. With growing commercialisation, married women work more hours than unmarried ones, working not only on non-cash food crops but also on non-food cash crops. Married women seem to lose their decision-making ability with growth of agricultural commercialisation, as husbands make most decisions to do with cash crops. Married women in Kenya also have little or no power to change the way land is allocated between food and non-food cash crops.

The history and value of the elephant in Sri Lankan society

Reviews the literature to provide an overview of the historical significance of the elephant in Sri Lankan society, an association which dates back more than 4,000 years. The present status of this relationship assessed on the basis of the findings of a recent study undertaken on the total economic value of elephants in Sri Lanka. This paper, first briefly outlines the history, evolution, nature and their distribution of the Asian elephant while providing some insights on the status of the elephant (Elephas maxima maxima) in Sri Lanka. Next, it reviews the literature in order to assess the historical affiliation that the elephant has maintained with the Sri Lankan society, its culture, history, mythology and religion. The empirical evidence on the economic value of conservation of the remaining elephant population in Sri Lanka is reviewed and the Sri Lankan people’s attitudes towards conserving this species of wildlife. Literature reviewed and analysis undertaken indicates that the elephant in Sri Lanka, still, as in the past has a special place in Sri Lankan society, particularly, in its culture, religion and value system. Thus, there is a strong case for ensuring the survival of wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, it also suggests that the community as a whole will experience a net benefit from ensuring the survival of wild elephants in Sri Lanka.

Three-point boundary value problems for second-order, ordinary, differential equations

We establish existence results for solutions to three-point boundary value problems for nonlinear, second-order, ordinary differential equations with nonlinear boundary conditions. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Should optional properties be used in conceptual modelling? A theory and three empirical tests

An important feature of some conceptual modelling grammars is the features they provide to allow database designers to show real-world things may or may not possess a particular attribute or relationship. In the entity-relationship model, for example, the fact that a thing may not possess an attribute can be represented by using a special symbol to indicate that the attribute is optional. Similarly, the fact that a thing may or may not be involved in a relationship can be represented by showing the minimum cardinality of the relationship as zero. Whether these practices should be followed, however, is a contentious issue. An alternative approach is to eliminate optional attributes and relationships from conceptual schema diagrams by using subtypes that have only mandatory attributes and relationships. In this paper, we first present a theory that led us to predict that optional attributes and relationships should be used in conceptual schema diagrams only when users of the diagrams require a surface-level understanding of the domain being represented by the diagrams. When users require a deep-level understanding, however, optional attributes and relationships should not be used because they undermine users' abilities to grasp important domain semantics. We describe three experiments which we then undertook to test our predictions. The results of the experiments support our predictions.

Patch dynamics and metapopulation theory: the case of successional species

We present a mathematical framework that combines extinction-colonization dynamics with the dynamics of patch succession. We draw an analogy between the epidemiological categorization of individuals (infected, susceptible, latent and resistant) and the patch structure of a spatially heterogeneous landscape (occupied-suitable, empty-suitable, occupied-unsuitable and empty-unsuitable). This approach allows one to consider life-history attributes that influence persistence in patchy environments (e.g., longevity, colonization ability) in concert with extrinsic processes (e.g., disturbances, succession) that lead to spatial heterogeneity in patch suitability. It also allows the incorporation of seed banks and other dormant life forms, thus broadening patch occupancy dynamics to include sink habitats. We use the model to investigate how equilibrium patch occupancy is influenced by four critical parameters: colonization rate? extinction rate, disturbance frequency and the rate of habitat succession. This analysis leads to general predictions about how the temporal scaling of patch succession and extinction-colonization dynamics influences long-term persistence. We apply the model to herbaceous, early-successional species that inhabit open patches created by periodic disturbances. We predict the minimum disturbance frequency required far viable management of such species in the Florida scrub ecosystem. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Feasibility of an evidence-based literature search service for general practitioners

Objective: To test the feasibility of an evidence-based clinical literature search service to help answer general practitioners' (GPs') clinical questions. Design: Two search services supplied GPs who submitted questions with the best available empirical evidence to answer these questions. The GPs provided feedback on the value of the service, and concordance of answers from the two search services was assessed. Setting: Two literature search services (Queensland and Victoria), operating for nine months from February 1999. Main outcome measures: Use of the service; time taken to locate answers; availability of evidence; value of the service to GPs; and consistency of answers from the two services. Results: 58 GPs asked 160 questions (29 asked one, 11 asked five or more). The questions concerned treatment (65%), aetiology (17%), prognosis (13%), and diagnosis (5%). Answering a question took a mean of 3 hours 32 minutes of personnel time (95% Cl, 2.67-3.97); nine questions took longer than 10 hours each to answer, the longest taking 23 hours 30 minutes. Evidence of suitable quality to provide a sound answer was available for 126 (79%) questions. Feedback data for 84 (53%) questions, provided by 42 GPs, showed that they appreciated the service, and asking the questions changed clinical care. There were many minor differences between the answers from the two centres, and substantial differences in the evidence found for 4/14 questions. However, conclusions reached were largely similar, with no or only minor differences for all questions. Conclusions: It is feasible to provide a literature search service, but further assessment is needed to establish its cost effectiveness.

A social identity theory of leadership

A social identity theory of leadership is described that views leadership as a group process generated by social categorization and prototype-based depersonalization processes associated with social identity. Group identification, as self-categorization, constructs an intragroup prototypicality gradient that invests the most prototypical member with the appearance of having influence; the appearance arises because members cognitively and behaviorally conform to the prototype. The appearance of influence becomes a reality through depersonalized social attraction processes that make followers agree and comply with the leader's ideas and suggestions. Consensual social attraction also imbues the leader with apparent status and creates a status-based structural differentiation within the group into leader(s) and followers, which has characteristics of unequal status intergroup relations. In addition, a fundamental attribution process constructs a charismatic leadership personality for the leader, which further empowers the leader and sharpens the leader-follower status differential. Empirical support for the theory is reviewed and a range of implications discussed, including intergroup dimensions, uncertainty reduction and extremism, power, and pitfalls of prototype-based leadership.

Genetic influence on the variance in P3 amplitude and latency

The P3(00) event-related potential (ERP) component is widely used as a measure of cognitive functioning and provides a sensitive electrophysiological index of the attentional and working memory demands of a task. This study investigated what proportion of the variance in the amplitude and latency of the P3, elicited in a delayed response working memory task, could be attributed to genetic factors. In 335 adolescent twin pairs and 48 siblings, the amplitude and latency of the P3 were examined at frontal, central, and parietal sites. Additive genetic factors accounted for 48% to 61% of the variance in P3 amplitude. Approximately one-third of the genetic variation at frontal sites was mediated by a common genetic factor that also influenced the genetic variation at parietal and central sites. Familial resemblance in P3 latency was due to genetic influence that accounted for 44% to 50% of the variance. Genetic covariance in P3 latency across sites was substantial, with a large part of the variance found at parietal, central, and frontal sites attributed to a common genetic factor. The findings provide further evidence that the P3 is a promising phenotype of neural activity of the brain and has the potential to be used in linkage and association analysis in the search for quantitative trait loci (QTLs) influencing cognition.

General strain theory, situational anger, and social networks: An assessment of conditioning influences

Using a random sample of university students to test general strain theory (GST), this study expanded on previous tests of strain theory in two ways. First, situational anger was measured, a construct that had not been used thus far in assessments of general strain. In addition, this research examined the role of social support networks as a conditioning influence on the effects of strain and anger on intentions to commit three types of criminal behavior (serious assault, shoplifting, and driving under the influence of alcohol [DUI]). The results provided mixed support for GST. While the link between anger and crime was confirmed, the nature of that relationship in some cases ran counter to the theory. Moreover, the evidence indicated that the role of social support networks was complex, and varied as a conditioning influence on intentions to engage in criminal activities. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.