Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Homocysteine, Alzheimer genes and proteins, and measures of cognition and depression in older men

The epsilon4 allele of apolipoprotem E (APOE), and the plasma levels of APOE, amyloid beta-protein precursor, arnyloid beta1-40 (Abeta40) and homocysteine, (Hcy) have all been correlated with the presence of dementia. Mutations in the methylnetetrahydrofolate reductase enzyme (MTHFR) have been associated with elevated levels of Hcy. This study explored the association of these factors with cognition and depression in community dwelling older men. Two hundred and ninety-nine men, mean age 78.9 years (SD 2.8), were studied in this cross-sectional survey. Mean plasma Hcy was 13.5 (SD 5.3) mumol/L. The MTHFR genotype had no obvious impact on Hey levels. Ln Hcy and Ln Abeta40 were both inversely correlated with calculated glomerular filtration rate (cGFR), r = -0.41 (p < 0.001) and r = -0.28 (p < 0.001), respectively. There was a positive correlation between Ln Hey and Ln Abeta40, r = 0.19 (p < 0.001), which remained significant after adjusting for cGFR, with a doubling of Hcy associated with a 24% increase of Abeta40. The e4 allele was associated with increased depressive symptoms as measured by the Geriatric Depression Scale-15, Odds ratio (OR) = 2.59 (95% CI 1.06-6.34) and poorer performance on the Clock Drawing Test, OR = 2.32 (95% CI: 1.25-4.29). There was a positive association between Abeta40 and Hcy, even after adjustment for cGFR in this sample of well, community dwelling older men. This association may help elucidate the link between elevated levels of Hey and Alzheimer's disease.

A prospective comparison of two models of cannabis use and psychotic relapse in early psychosis

No abstract

Virtual models of the HLA class I antigen processing pathway

Antigen recognition by cytotoxic CD8 T cells is dependent upon a number of critical steps in MHC class I antigen processing including proteosomal cleavage, TAP transport into the endoplasmic reticulum, and MHC class 1 binding. Based on extensive experimental data relating to each of these steps there is now the capacity to model individual antigen processing steps with a high degree of accuracy. This paper demonstrates the potential to bring together models of individual antigen processing steps, for example proteosome cleavage, TAP transport, and MHC binding, to build highly informative models of functional pathways. In particular, we demonstrate how an artificial neural network model of TAP transport was used to mine a HLA-binding database so as to identify H LA-binding peptides transported by TAP. This integrated model of antigen processing provided the unique insight that HLA class I alleles apparently constitute two separate classes: those that are TAP-efficient for peptide loading (HLA-B27, -A3, and -A24) and those that are TAP-inefficient (HLA-A2, -B7, and -B8). Hence, using this integrated model we were able to generate novel hypotheses regarding antigen processing, and these hypotheses are now capable of being tested experimentally. This model confirms the feasibility of constructing a virtual immune system, whereby each additional step in antigen processing is incorporated into a single modular model. Accurate models of antigen processing have implications for the study of basic immunology as well as for the design of peptide-based vaccines and other immunotherapies. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Attentional modulation of neural responses to action observation: Implications for models of the human 'mirror' system

In primates, the observation of meaningful, goaldirected actions engages a network of cortical areas located within the premotor and inferior parietal lobules. Current models suggest that activity within these regions arises relatively automatically during passive action observation without the need for topdown control. Here we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to determine whether cortical activit)' associated with action observation is modulated by the strategic allocation of selective attention. Normal observers viewed movie clips of reach-to-grasp actions while performing an easy or difficult visual discrimination at the fovea. A wholebrain analysis was performed to determine the effects of attentional load on neural responses to observed hand actions. Our results suggest that cortical areas involved in action observation are significantiy modulated by attentional load. These findings have important implications for recent attempts to link the human action-observation system to response properties of "mirror neurons" in monkeys.

Improving access to evidence-based mental health care: general practitioners and allied health professionals collaborate

This study evaluated whether projects conducted through the Access to Allied Health Services component of the Australian Better Outcomes in Mental Health Care initiative are improving access to evidence-based, non-pharmacological therapies for people with depression and anxiety. Synthesising data from the first 29 projects funded through the initiative, the study found that the models utilised in the projects have evolved over time. The projects have achieved a high level uptake; at a conservative estimate, 710 GPs and 160 allied health professionals (AHPs) have provided care to 3,476 consumers. The majority of these consumers have depression (77%) and/or anxiety disorders (55%); many are low income earners (57%); and a number have not previously accessed mental health care (40%). The projects have delivered 8,678 sessions of high quality care to these consumers, most commonly providing CBT-based cognitive and behavioural interventions (55% and 41%, respectively). In general, GPs, AHPs and consumers are sanguine about the projects, and have reported positive consumer outcomes. However, as with any new initiative, there are some practical and professional issues that need to be addressed. The projects are improving access to evidence-based, non-pharmacological therapies. The continuation and expansion of the initiative should be a priority.

Drinfeld twists and symmetric Bethe vectors of supersymmetric fermion models

We construct the Drinfeld twists ( factorizing F-matrices) of the gl(m-n)-invariant fermion model. Completely symmetric representation of the pseudo-particle creation operators of the model are obtained in the basis provided by the F-matrix ( the F-basis). We resolve the hierarchy of the nested Bethe vectors in the F-basis for the gl(m-n) supersymmetric model.

Mental health and socio-economic variations in Australian suicide

This paper investigates the relationship between suicide rates and prevalence of mental disorder and suicide attempts, across socio-economic status (SES) groups based on area of residence. Australian suicide data (1996-1998) were analysed in conjunction with area-based prevalences of mental disorder derived from the National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being (1997). Poisson regression models of suicide risk included age, quintile of area-based SES, urban-rural residence, and country of birth (COB), with males and females analysed separately. Analysis focussed on the association between suicide and prevalences of (ICD-10) affective disorders, anxiety disorders, substance use disorders and suicide attempts by SES group. Prevalences of other psychiatric symptomatology, substance use problems, health service utilisation, stressful life-events and personality were also investigated. Significant increasing gradients were evident from high to low SES groups for prevalences of affective disorders, anxiety disorders (females only), and substance use disorders (males only); sub-threshold drug and alcohol problems and depression; and suicide attempts and suicide (males only). Prevalences of mental disorder, other sub-threshold mental health items and suicide attempts were significantly associated with suicide, but in most cases associations were reduced in magnitude and became statistically non-significant after adjustment for COB, urban-rural residence, and SES. For male suicide the relative risk (RR) in the lowest SES group compared to the highest was 1.40 (95% CI 1.29-1.52, p < 0.001) for all ages, and 1.46 (95% CI 1.27-1.67, p < 0.001) for male youth (20-34 years). This relationship was not substantially modified in males when regression models included prevalences of affective disorders, and other selected mental health variables and demographic factors. From a population perspective, SES remained significantly associated with suicide after controlling for the prevalence of mental disorders and other psychiatric symptomatology. Mental conditions and previous suicidal behaviour may play an intermediary role between SES and suicide, but this study suggests that an independent relationship between suicide and SES also exists. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Risk factors for post-stroke depression

Objective. To examine possible risk factors in post-stroke depression (PSD) other than site of lesion in the brain Data sources. 191 first-ever stroke patients were examined physically shortly after their stroke and examined psychiatrically and physically 4 months post-stroke. Setting. A geographically defined segment of the metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia, from which all strokes over a course of 18 months were examined (the Perth Community Stroke Study). Measures. Psychiatric Assessment Schedule, Mini Mental State Examination, Barthel Index, Frenchay Activities Index, physical illness and sociodemographic data were collected. Post-stroke depression (PSD) included both major depression and minor depression (dysthymia without the 2-year time stipulation) according to DSM-III (American Psychiatric Association) criteria. Patients depressed at the time of the stroke were excluded. Patients. 191 first-ever stroke patients, 111M, 80F, 28% had PSD, 17% major and 11% minor depression. Results. Significant associations with PSD at 4 months were major functional impairment, living in a nursing home, being divorced and having a high pre-stroke alcohol intake (M only). There was no significant association with age, sex, social class, cognitive impairment or pre-stroke physical illness. Conclusion. Results favoured the hypothesis that depression in an unselected group of stroke patients is no more common, and of no more specific aetiology, than it is among elderly patients with other physical illness.