81 resultados para Constant Relative Risk Aversion
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Background. Treatment of vivax malaria with primaquine prevents the relapse of infection from residual liver stages of the parasite. Inadequate dosage is related to a higher relapse risk. Methods: A comparison was made of vivax malaria relapse-prevention treatments with primaquine 22.5 mg or 30 mg daily for 14 days on 146 reports to the Australian Army Central Malaria Register. Results: The lower dose of primaquine was found to carry a relative risk of 6.63 for a relapse of vivax malaria compared with the higher dose. Conclusions:The available data presented here suggest that vivax malaria in this region is increasingly tolerant of the 22.5 mg daily treatment regimen of primaquine and that the greater dose of at least 30 mg daily is more effective.
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Objectives - Nitric oxide (NO) is critically important in the regulation of vascular tone and the inhibition of platelet aggregation. We have shown previously that patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) or stable angina pectoris have impaired platelet responses to NO donors when compared with normal subjects. We tested the hypotheses that platelet hyporesponsiveness to NO is a predictor of (1) cardiovascular readmission and/or death and (2) all-cause mortality in patients with ACS (unstable angina pectoris or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction). Methods and Results - Patients (n = 51) with ACS had evaluation of platelet aggregation within 24 hours of coronary care unit admission using impedance aggregometry. Patients were categorized as having normal (>= 32% inhibition of ADP-induced aggregation with the NO donor sodium nitroprusside; 10 mu mol/L; n = 18) or impaired (>= 32% inhibition of ADP-induced aggregation; n = 33) NO responses. We then compared the incidence of cardiovascular readmission and death during a median of 7 years of follow-up in these 2 groups. Using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, index event, postdischarge medical treatment, revascularization status, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, concurrent disease states, and cardiac risk factors, impaired NO responsiveness was associated with an increased risk of the combination of cardiovascular readmission and/or death (relative risk, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.03 to 7.10; P = 0.041) and all-cause mortality (relative risk, 6.3; 95% CI, 1.09 to 36.7; P = 0.033). Conclusions - Impaired platelet NO responsiveness is a novel, independent predictor of increased mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in patients with high-risk ACS.
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Background: Data on the long-term benefits of nonspecific disease management programs are limited. We performed a long-term follow-up of a previously published randomized trial. Methods: We compared all-cause mortality and recurrent hospitalization during median follow-up of 7.5 years in a heterogeneous cohort of patients with chronic illness initially exposed to a multidisciplinary, homebased intervention (HBI) (n = 260) or to usual postdischarge care (n = 268). Results: During follow-up, HBI had no impact on all-cause mortality (relative risk, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.35) or event-free survival from death or unplanned hospitalization (relative risk, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-1.24). Initial analysis suggested that HBI had only a marginal impact in reducing unplanned hospitalization, with 677 readmissions vs 824 for the usual care group (mean +/- SD rate, 0.72 +/- 0.96 vs 0.84 +/- 1.20 readmissions/patient per year; P = .08). When accounting for increased hospital activity in HBI patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease during follow-up for 2 years, post hoc analyses showed that HBI reduced readmissions by 14% within 2 years in patients without this condition (mean +/- SD rate, 0.54 +/- 0.72 vs 0.63 +/- 0.88 readmission/patient per year; P =. 04) and by 21% in all surviving patients within 3 to 8 years (mean +/- SD rate, 0.64 +/- 1.26 vs 0.81 +/- 1.61 readmissions/ patient per year; P =. 03). Overall, recurrent hospital costs were significantly lower ( 14%) in the HBI group (mean +/- SD, $ 823 +/- $ 1642 vs $ 960 +/- $ 1376 per patient per year; P =. 045). Conclusion: This unique study suggests that a nonspecific HBI provides long-term cost benefits in a range of chronic illnesses, except for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
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Objective: To explore the use of epidemiological modelling for the estimation of health effects of behaviour change interventions, using the example of computer-tailored nutrition education aimed at fruit and vegetable consumption in The Netherlands. Design: The effects of the intervention on changes in consumption were obtained from an earlier evaluation study. The effect on health outcomes was estimated using an epidemiological multi-state life table model. input data for the model consisted of relative risk estimates for cardiovascular disease and cancers, data on disease occurrence and mortality, and survey data on the consumption of fruits and vegetables. Results: if the computer-tailored nutrition education reached the entire adult population and the effects were sustained, it could result in a mortality decrease of 0.4 to 0.7% and save 72 to 115 life-years per 100000 persons aged 25 years or older. Healthy life expectancy is estimated to increase by 32.7 days for men and 25.3 days for women. The true effect is likely to lie between this theoretical maximum and zero effect, depending mostly on durability of behaviour change and reach of the intervention. Conclusion: Epidemiological models can be used to estimate the health impact of health promotion interventions.
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Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of supplementation with zinc and vitamin A in Indigenous children hospitalised with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). Design: Randomised controlled, 2-by-2 factorial trial of supplementation with zinc and vitamin A. Setting and participants: 187 Indigenous children aged < 11 years hospitalised with 215 ALRI episodes at Alice Springs Hospital (April 2001 to July 2002). Interventions: Vitamin A was administered on Days 1 and 5 of admission at a dose of 50 000 IU (infants under 12 months), or 100 000 IU; and zinc sulfate was administered daily for 5 days at a daily dose of 20 mg (infants under 12 months) or 40 mg. Main outcome measure: Time to clinical recovery from fever and tachypnoea, duration of hospitalisation, and readmission for ALRI within 120 days. Results: There was no clinical benefit of supplementation with vitamin A, zinc or the two combined, with no significant difference between zinc and no-zinc, vitamin A and no-vitamin A or zinc + vitamin A and placebo groups in time to resolution of fever or tachypnoea, or duration of hospitalisation. Instead, we found increased morbidity; children given zinc had increased risk of readmission for ALRI within 120 days (relative risk, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.003–6.1). Conclusion: This study does not support the use of vitamin A or zinc supplementation in the management of ALRI requiring hospitalisation in Indigenous children living in remote areas. Even in populations with high rates of ALRI and poor living conditions, vitamin A and zinc therapy may not be useful. The effect of supplementation may depend on the prevalence of deficiency of these micronutrients in the population.
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PURPOSE: Research on determinants of an individual's pattern of response, considered as a profile across time, for cohort studies with multiple waves is limited. In this prospective population-based pregnancy cohort, we investigated baseline characteristics of participants after partitioning them according to their history of response to different interview waves. METHODS: Data are from the Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy 1981 to 1983 cohort, Brisbane, Australia. Complete baseline information was collected for 7223 of 7535 eligible individuals (95.9%). Follow-up occurred at 6 months, 5 years, and 14 years. Response rates were 93.0%, 72.5%, and 71.8%. Participants were allowed to leave and reenter the study. Participants were categorized as always, intermittent, or never responders. Intermittent responders were categorized further as leavers (responded at least once before leaving the study) or returners (left the study before reentering). RESULTS: Participants who always responded were older, more educated, married, Caucasian, and nonsmokers and had higher incomes. Intermittent responders shared similar baseline characteristics. Relative risk for being an intermittent responder was located between risks for always or never responding. CONCLUSIONS: Participants who left and reentered the study had baseline characteristics similar to participants who responded at least once and then left the study.
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Objectives The aims of the study were to describe the prevalence and associations of mental health disorder (MHD) among a cohort of HIV-infected patients attending the Victorian HIV/AIDS Service between 1984 and 2000, and to examine whether antiretroviral therapy use or mortality was influenced by MHD (defined as a record of service provision by psychiatric services on the Victorian Psychiatric Case Register). It was hypothesized that HIV-positive individuals with MHD would have poorer treatment outcomes, reduced responses to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and increased mortality compared with those without MHD. Methods This is a retrospective cohort of 2981 individuals (73% of the Victorian population diagnosed with HIV infection) captured on an HIV database which was electronically matched with the public Victorian Psychiatric Case Register (VPCR) (accounting for 95% of public system psychiatry service provision). The prevalence, dates and recorded specifics of mental health disorders at the time of the electronic match on 1 June 2000 are described. The association with recorded MHD, gender, age, AIDS illness, HIV exposure category, duration and type of antiviral therapy, treatment era (prior to 1986, post-1987 and pre-HAART, and post-HAART) on hospitalization and mortality at 1 September 2001 was assessed. Results Five hundred and twenty-five individuals (17.6% of the Victorian HIV-positive population) were recorded with MHD, most frequently coded as attributable to substance dependence/abuse or affective disorder. MHD was diagnosed prior to HIV in 33% and, of those diagnosed after HIV, 93.8% were recorded more than 1 year after the HIV diagnosis. Schizophrenia was recorded in 6% of the population with MHD. Hospitalizations for both psychiatric and nonpsychiatric illness were more frequent in those with MHD (relative risk 5.4; 95% confidence interval 3.7, 8.2). The total number of antiretrovirals used (median 6.4 agents vs 5.5 agents) was greater in those with MHD. When adjusted for antiretroviral treatment era, HIV exposure category, CD4 cell count and antiretroviral therapy, survival was not affected by MHD. Conclusions MHD is frequent in this population with HIV infection and is associated with increased healthcare utilization but not with reduced survival.
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Aim of study: As part of a Cochrane review of viscosupplementation in knee OA, randomised controlled trials (RCT) were reviewed to evaluate evidence for the efficacy of viscosupplementation with Hylan G-F 20 compared to placebo. Methods: Electronic searches were conducted of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Premedline, Current Contents, and CENTRAL. Human, RCT involving Hylan G-F 20 compared to placebo, published prior to 1Q2004, were included. Trials were selected and data extracted by two independent reviewers. Methodological quality was assessed with the Jadad criteria by two reviewers. Data on the OARSI and OMERACT core set clinical outcome measures were extracted where possible. Weighted mean difference (WMD), based on post-test scores, and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for continuous outcome measures and relative risk (RR) for dichotomous outcome measures. Results: Seven RCT met the inclusion criteria. Median methodological quality was 4 (range 1–5). A further two studies were only reported in abstract form (Jadad score Z 1) and contained insufficient extractable data for inclusion in the analysis. Nine RCT, which compared Hylan G-F 20 to other interventions such as intra-articular corticosteroid, physiotherapy, NSAID, appropriate care, intra-articular gaseous oxygen and other hyaluronan, are not reported here. Twenty-three studies failed to meet inclusion criteria and were excluded. Hylan G-F 20 was more efficacious than placebo at 1–4 weeks post-injection for pain on weight-bearing WMD (random effects [RE]) 13 mm on a 0–100 mm VAS (P Z 0.002) based on 6 RCT. This difference was even greater at 5–13 weeks post-injection, 22 m (RE) (P Z 0.001) based on 5 RCT, and at 14–6 weeks postinjection, 21 m (RE) (P Z 0.006) based on 4 RCT. Hylan G-F 20 was more efficacious than placebo at 1–4 weeks post-injection for pain at night, WMD 7 mm on a 0–100 mm VAS (P Z 0.003) based on 5 RCT. This difference was even greater at 5–13 weeks post-injection, 11 mm (P Z 0.008) based on 4 RCT, and at 14–26 weeks post-injection, 17 mm (P ! 0.00001) based on 3 RCT. There was no significant difference (WMD 8 mm) between Hylan G-F 20 C oral placebo and arthrocentesis C oral placebo at 5–13 weeks post-injection for WOMAC Pain, but Hylan G-F 20 C oral placebo was more efficacious than arthrocentesis C oral placebo for WOMAC Function, WMD 9 mm on a 0–100 mm VAS (P Z 0.01) (Dickson, 2001). Hylan G-F 20 was more effective than placebo at 1–4 weeks postinjection for the variable designed treatment efficacy, WMD 22 mm on a 0–100 mm VAS (P ! 0.00001) based on improvement in 4 RCT. This difference was even greater at 5–13 weeks post injection, 35 mm (P ! 0.00001). Conclusions: Evidence from this updated Cochrane review supports the superior efficacy of Hylan G-F 20 compared to placebo on weight-bearing pain, night pain, function and treatment efficacy in the treatment of knee OA.
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Watson is a fully developed suburb of some 30 years in Canberra (the capital city of Australia), A plunge dip using arsenical pesticides for tick control was operated there between 1946 and 1960, Chemical investigations revealed that many soil samples obtained from the study area contained levels of arsenic exceeding the current health-based investigation levels of 100 mg kg(-1) set by the National Health and Medical Research Council in Australia, For the speciation study, nine composite samples of surface and sub-surface soils and a composite sample of rocks were selected. ICP-MS analysis showed that arsenic levels in these samples ranged from 32 to 1597 mg kg(-1), Chemical speciation of arsenic showed that the arsenite (trivalent) components were 0.32-56% in the soil and 44.8% in the rock composite samples. Using a rat model, the absolute bioavailability of these contaminated soils relative to As3+ or As5+ ranged from 1.02 to 9.87% and 0.26 to 2.98%, respectively, An attempt was made to develop a suitable leachate test as an index of bioavailability. However, the results indicated that there was no significant correlation between the bioavailability and leachates using neutral pH water or 1 M HCl. Our results indicate that speciation is highly significant for the interpretation of bioavailability and risk assessment data; the bioavailable fractions of arsenic in soils from Watson are small and therefore the health impact upon the environment and humans due to this element is limited.
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This paper reports a study of sources of information about HIV/AIDS and trust of the sources among heterosexuals in 1989 (113 females and 91 males) and 1994 (185 females and 66 males). We also examined whether perceived personal risk of HIV infection was predicted by sources of information about HIV/AIDS, trust of the sources, how informed about AIDS people believed they were, and perceived risk of infection to others, as well as whether there was a relationship between perceived personal risk and safe sex behaviour Participants received most of their information about AIDS/HIV from magazines, newspapers, and television, but placed most trust on sources such as doctors and HIV/AIDS organisations. Perceived personal risk was influenced most by perceived risk to friends and to people with the same sexual practices. In the 1994 sample, perceived personal risk was correlated with the amount of condom use among participants with sexual experience. These results indicate ther has been. relative stability across a five-year period. They also point to the continuing discrepancy among young heterosexuals between the most-used and most-trusted sources of information, as well as to the importance of peer influence on perceptions of personal risk of HIV infection.
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Background and Purpose-Few community-based studies have examined the long-term risk of recurrent stroke after an acute first-ever stroke. This study aimed to determine the absolute and relative risks of a first recurrent stroke over the first 5 years after a first-ever stroke and the predictors of such recurrence in a population-based series of people with first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Between February 1989 and August 1990, all people with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack of the brain who were resident in a geographically defined region of Perth, Western Australia, with a population of 138 708 people, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, and 5 years after the index event. Results-Three hundred seventy patients with a first-ever stroke were registered, of whom 351 survived >2 days. Data were available for 98% of the cohort at 5 years, by which time 199 patients (58%) had died and 52 (15%) had experienced a recurrent stroke, 12 (23%) of which were fatal within 28 days. The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 22.5% (95% confidence limits [CL], 16.8%, 28.1%). The risk of recurrent stroke was greatest in the first 6 months after stroke, at 8.8% (95% CL, 5.4%, 12.1%). After adjustment for age and sex, the prognostic factors for recurrent stroke were advanced, but not extreme, age (75 to 84 years) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.6; 95% CL, 1.1, 6.2), hemorrhagic index stroke (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.98, 4.4), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.95, 4.4). Conclusions-Approximately 1 in 6 survivors (15%) of a first-ever stroke experience a recurrent stroke over the next 5 years, of which 25% are fatal within 28 days. The pathological subtype of the recurrent stroke is the same as that of the index stroke in 88% of cases. The predictors of first recurrent stroke in this study were advanced age, hemorrhagic index stroke, and diabetes mellitus, but numbers of recurrent events were modest. Because the risk of recurrent stroke is highest (8.8%) in the first 6 months after stroke, strategies for secondary prevention should be initiated as soon as possible after the index event.
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SETTING: Hlabisa Tuberculosis Programme, Hlabisa, South Africa. OBJECTIVE: To determine trends in and risk factors for interruption of tuberculosis treatment. METHODS: Data were extracted from the control programme database starting in 1991. Temporal trends in treatment interruption are described; independent risk factors for treatment interruption were determined with a multiple logistic regression model, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves for treatment interruption were constructed for patients treated in 1994-1995. RESULTS: Overall 629 of 3610 surviving patients (17%) failed to complete treatment; this proportion increased from 11% (n = 79) in 1991/1992 to 22% (n = 201) in 1996. Independent risk factors for treatment interruption were diagnosis between 1994-1996 compared with 1991-1393 (odds ratio [OR] 1.9, 95% confidence interval [CT] 1.6-2.4); human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positivity compared with HIV negativity (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.4); supervised by village clinic compared with community health worker (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4-2.6); and male versus female sex (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6). Few patients interrupted treatment during the first 2 weeks, and the treatment interruption rate thereafter was constant at 1% per 14 days. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of treatment interruption from this programme has increased recently. The strongest risk factor was year of diagnosis, perhaps reflecting the impact of an increased caseload on programme performance. Ensuring adherence to therapy in communities with a high level of migration remains a challenge even within community-based directly observed therapy programmes.
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Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.
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Background and Purpose-Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is more common in women than in men, but the role of hormonal factors in its etiology remains uncertain. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hormonal factors and risk of SAH in women. Methods-This was a prospective, multicenter, population-based, case-control study performed in 4 major urban centers in Australia and New Zealand. Two hundred sixty-eight female cases of first-ever aneurysmal SAH occurred during 1995-1998. Controls were 286 frequency-matched women from the general population of each center. Outcome measures included risk of SAH associated with use of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs), hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and various endogenous hormonal factors including menstrual patterns, parity, age at birth of first child, and breast-feeding practices. Results-Cases and controls did not differ with regard to menstrual and reproductive history except in age at bir th of first child, where older age was associated with reduced risk of SAH (odds ratio [OR], 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43, 0.91). Relative to never use of HRT, the adjusted OR for over use of HRT was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.41, 0.98), which did not alter significantly after further adjustment for possible confounding factors. Borderline evidence of an inverse association was detected for past use of HRT (adjusted OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.30, 1.13) and current use of HRT (adjusted OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.40, 1.13), but there was no evidence of an association for use of OCPs (adjusted OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.58, 1.60). Conclusions-The risks of SAH are lower in women whose first pregnancy is at an older age and women who have ever used HRT but not OCPs. The findings suggest an independent etiologic role for hormonal factors in the pathogenesis of aneurysmal SAH and provide support for a protective role fur HRT on risk of SAH in postmenopausal women.
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Background and Purpose-Limited information exists on the long-term prognosis after first-ever stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute frequency of first recurrent stroke and disability and the relative frequency of recurrent stroke over 10 years after first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who lived in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth were registered prospectively. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up 10 years after the index event. Results-Over 10 years of follow-up, the cumulative risk of a first recurrent stroke was 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34 to 51). After the first year after first-ever stroke, the average annual risk of recurrent stroke was approximate to4%. Case fatality at 30 days after first recurrent stroke was 41%, which was significantly greater than the case fatality at 30 days after first-ever stroke (22%) (P=0.003). For 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, the 10-year cumulative risk of death or new institutionalization was 79% (95% CI, 73 to 85) and of death or new disability was 87% (95% CI, 81 to 92). Conclusions-Over 10 years of follow-up, the risk of first recurrent stroke is 6 times greater than the risk of first-ever stroke in the general population of the same age and sex, almost one half of survivors remain disabled, and one seventh require institutional care. Effective strategies for prevention of stroke need to be implemented early, monitored frequently, and maintained long term after first-ever stroke.