Declining rates of coronary heart disease in New Zealand and Australia, 1983-1993

The authors report the results of 10 years of monitoring of trends in the rates of major nonfatal and fatal coronary events and in case fatality in Auckland, New Zealand, and in Newcastle and Perth, Australia. Continuous surveillance of all suspected myocardial infarctions and coronary deaths in people aged 35-64 years was undertaken in the three centers as part of the World Health Organization's Multinational Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) Project, For nonfatal definite myocardial infarction, there were statistically significant declines in rates in all centers in both men and women, with estimated average changes between 2.5% and 3.7% per year during the period 1984-1993, Rates of all coronary deaths also declined significantly in all three populations for both men and women. In absolute terms, there was, in general, a greater reduction in prehospital deaths than in deaths after hospitalization. Although 28-day case fatality remains high at between 35% and 50%, in the Australian centers it declined significantly by between 1.0% and 2.9% per year, and in Auckland there was also a small decline, However, since most deaths occur outside the hospital in people without a previous history of coronary heart disease, an increased emphasis on primary prevention is necessary.

Diet, lifestyle and the risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in women

Background Previous studies have examined individual dietary and lifestyle factors in relation to type 2 diabetes, but the combined effects of these factors are largely unknown. Methods We followed 84,941 female nurses from 1980 to 1996; these women were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer at base line. Information about their diet and lifestyle was updated periodically. A low-risk group was defined according to a combination of five variables: a body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of less than 25; a diet high in cereal fiber and polyunsaturated fat and low in trans fat and glycemic load (which reflects the effect of diet on the blood glucose level); engagement in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity for at least half an hour per day; no current smoking; and the consumption of an average of at least half a drink of an alcoholic beverage per day. Results During 16 years of follow-up, we documented 3300 new cases of type 2 diabetes. Overweight or obesity was the single most important predictor of diabetes. Lack of exercise, a poor diet, current smoking, and abstinence from alcohol use were all associated with a significantly increased risk of diabetes, even after adjustment for the body-mass index. As compared with the rest of the cohort, women in the low-risk group (3.4 percent of the women) had a relative risk of diabetes of 0.09 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.05 to 0.17). A total of 91 percent of the cases of diabetes in this cohort (95 percent confidence interval, 83 to 95 percent) could be attributed to habits and forms of behavior that did not conform to the low-risk pattern. Conclusions Our findings support the hypothesis that the majority of cases of type 2 diabetes could be prevented by the adoption of a healthier lifestyle.

Dietary fat intake and risk of type 2 diabetes in women

Background: The long-term relations between specific types of dietary fat and risk of type 2 diabetes remain unclear. Objective: Our objective was to examine the relations between dietary fat intakes and the risk of type 2 diabetes. Design: We prospectively followed 84204 women aged 34–59 y with no diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer in 1980. Detailed dietary information was assessed at baseline and updated in 1984, 1986, and 1990 by using validated questionnaires. Relative risks of type 2 diabetes were obtained from pooled logistic models adjusted for nondietary and dietary covariates. Results: During 14 y of follow-up, 2507 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were documented. Total fat intake, compared with equivalent energy intake from carbohydrates, was not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes; for a 5% increase in total energy from fat, the relative risk (RR) was 0.98 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.02). Intakes of saturated or monounsaturated fatty acids were also not significantly associated with the risk of diabetes. However, for a 5% increase in energy from polyunsaturated fat, the RR was 0.63 (0.53, 0.76; P < 0.0001) and for a 2% increase in energy from trans fatty acids the RR was 1.39 (1.15, 1.67; P = 0.0006). We estimated that replacing 2% of energy from trans fatty acids isoenergetically with polyunsaturated fat would lead to a 40% lower risk (RR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.75). Conclusions: These data suggest that total fat and saturated and monounsaturated fatty acid intakes are not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes in women, but that trans fatty acids increase and polyunsaturated fatty acids reduce risk. Substituting nonhydrogenated polyunsaturated fatty acids for trans fatty acids would likely reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes substantially.

Myocardial infarction and type II diabetes - preferential treatment for high risk patients?

Objectives: To compare variability of blood glucose concentration in patients with type II diabetes with (cases) and without (controls) myocardial infarction. A secondary objective was identification of predictive factors for higher blood glucose on discharge from hospital. Design: A retrospective matched case-control study. Participants: Medical notes of 101 type II diabetic patients admitted with a myocardial infarction (MI) and 101 type II diabetic patients (controls) matched on gender and age with no MI were reviewed. Blood glucose concentrations over two consecutive 48-h periods were collected. Demographic data and therapy on admission/discharge were also collected. Results: Patient characteristics were comparable on recruitment excluding family history of cardiovascular disease (P =0.003), dyslipidaemia (P =0.004) and previous history of MI (P =0.007). Variability of blood glucose in cases was greater over the first 48 h compared with the second 48 h (P =0.03), and greater when compared with controls over the first 48 h (P =0.01). Cases with blood glucose on discharge >8.2 mmol / L (n =45) were less likely to have a history of previous MI (P =0.04), ischaemic heart disease (P =0.03) or hypertension (P =0.02). Conclusions: Type II diabetics with an MI have higher and more variable blood glucose concentrations during the first 48 h of admission. Only cardiovascular 'high risk' patients had target blood glucose set on discharge. The desirability of all MI patients with diabetes, having standardized-glucose infusions to reduce variability of blood glucose, should be evaluated in a randomized controlled trial.

The genetics of coronary heart disease: the contribution of twin studies

Despite the decline in coronary heart disease in many European countries, the disease remains an enormous public health problem. Although we know a great deal about environmental risk factors for coronary heart disease, a heritable component was recognized a long time ago. The earliest and best known examples of how our genetic constitution may determine cardiovascular risk relate to lipoprotein(a), familial hypercholesterolaemia and apolipoprotein E. In the past 20 years a fair number of polymorphisms assessed singly have shown strong associations with the disease but most are subject to poor repeatability. Twins constitute a compelling natural experiment to establish the genetic contribution to coronary heart disease and its risk factors. GenomEUtwin, a recently funded Framework 5 Programme of the European Community, affords the opportunity of comparing the heritability of risk factors in different European Twin Registries. As an illustration we present the heritabilities of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, based on data from over 4000 twin pairs from six different European countries and Australia. Heritabilities for systolic blood pressure are between 52 and 66% and for diastolic blood pressure between 44 and 66%. There is no evidence of sex differences in heritability estimates and very little to no evidence for a significant contribution of shared family environment. A non-twin based prospective case/cohort study of coronary heart disease and stroke (MORGAM) will allow hypotheses relating to cardiovascular disease, generated in the twin cohorts, to be tested prospectively in adult populations. Twin studies have also contributed to our understanding of the life course hypothesis, and GenomEUtwin has the potential to add to this.

Homocysteine-lowering therapy in renal disease

Hyperhomocysteinemia is a potential risk factor for vascular disease and is associated with endothelial dysfunction, a predictor of adverse cardiovascular events. Renal patients (end-stage renal failure (ESRF) and transplant recipients (RTR)) exhibit both hyperhomocysteinemia and endothelial dysfunction with increasing evidence of a causative link between the 2 conditions. The elevated homocysteine appears to be due to altered metabolism in the kidney (intrarenal) and in the uremic circulation ( extrarenal). This review will discuss 18 supplementation studies conducted in ESRF and 6 in RTR investigating the effects of nutritional therapy to lower homocysteine. The clinical significance of lowering homocysteine in renal patients will be discussed with data on the effects of B vitamin supplementation on cardiovascular outcomes such as endothelial function presented. Folic acid is the most effective nutritional therapy to lower homocysteine. In ESRF patients, supplementation with folic acid over a wide dose range ( 2 - 20 mg/day) either individually or in combination with other B vitamins will decrease but not normalize homocysteine. In contrast, in RTR similar doses of folic acid normalizes homocysteine. Folic acid improves endothelial function in ESRF patients, however this has yet to be investigated in RTR. Homocysteine-lowering therapy is more effective in ESRF patients than RTR.

Secondary prevention of cardiovascular events with long-term pravastatin in patients with diabetes or impaired fasting glucose - Results from the LIPID trial

OBJECTIVE- Diabetes, a major health problem worldwide, increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and its associated mortality. Evidence of the overall benefits of lipid modification in this area is needed. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS- The Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) trial showed that cholesterol-lowering treatment with pravastatin reduced mortality and coronary heart disease (CHD) events in 9,014 patients aged 31-75 years with CHD and total cholesterol 4.0-7.0 mmol/l. We measured the effects of pravastatin therapy, 40 mg/day over 6.0 years, on the risk of CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction and other cardiovascular outcomes in 1,077 LIPID patients with diabetes and 940 patients with impaired fasting glucose (IFG). RESULTS- in patients allocated to placebo, the risk of a major CHD event was 61% higher in patients with diabetes and 23% higher in the IFG group than in patients with normal fasting glucose, and the risk of any cardiovascular event was 37% higher in the diabetic group and 19% higher in the IFG group. Pravastatin therapy reduced the risk of a major CHD event overall from 15.9 to 12.3% (relative risk reduction [RRR] 24%, P < 0.001) and from 23.4 to 19.6% in the diabetic group (19%, P = 0.11); in the diabetic group, the reduction was not significantly different from the reductions in the other groups. Pravastatin reduced the risk of any cardiovascular event from 52.7 to 45.2% (21%, P < 0.008) in patients With diabetes and from 45.7 to 37.1% (26%, P = 0.003) in the IFG group. Pravastatin reduced the risk of stroke from 9.9 to 6.3% in the diabetic group (RRR 39%, Cl 7-61%, P = 0.02) and from 5.4 to 3.4% in the IFG group (RRR 42%, Cl -9 to 69%, P = 0.09). Pravastatin did not reduce the incidence of diabetes. Over 6 years, pravastatin therapy prevented one major,CHD event (CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction) in 23 patients with IFG and 18 patients with diabetes. A meta-analysis of other major trials confirmed the high absolute risks of diabetes and IFG and the absolute benefits of statin therapy in these patients. CONCLUSIONS- Cholesterol-lowering treatment with pravastatin therapy prevents cardiovascular events, including stroke, in patients with diabetes or IFG and established CHD.

Depression and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality: cause or consequence?

Background Depression after myocardial infarction has been associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. This study assessed whether depressive symptoms were associated with adverse outcomes in people with a history of an acute coronary syndrome, and evaluated possible explanations for such an association. Methods and results Depressive symptoms were assessed using the General Health Questionnaire at least 5 months after hospital admission for acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina in 1130 participants of the Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease (LIPID) Study, a multicentre, placebo-controlled, clinical trial of cholesterol-lowering treatment. Cardiovascular symptoms, self-rated general health, cardiovascular risk factors, employment status, social support and life events were also assessed at the baseline visit. Cardiovascular death (n=114), non-fatal myocardial infarction (n=108), non-fatal stroke (n=53) and unstable angina (n=274) were documented during a median follow-up period of 8.1 years. Individuals with depressive symptoms (General. Health Questionnaire score greater than or equal to5; 22% of participants) were more likely to report angina, dyspnoea, claudication, poorer general health, not being in paid employment, few social contacts and/or adverse life events (P

The relative importance of vascular structure and function in predicting cardiovascular events

OBJECTIVES We sought to assess the prognostic utility of brachial artery reactivity (BAR) in patients at risk of cardiovascular events. BACKGROUND Impaired flow-mediated vasodilation measured by BAR is a marker of endothelial dysfunction. Brachial artery reactivity is influenced by risk factors and is responsive to various pharmacological and other treatments. However, its prognostic importance is uncertain, especially relative to other predictors of outcome. METHODS A total of 444 patients were prospectively enrolled to undergo BAR and follow-up. These patients were at risk of cardiovascular events, based on the presence of risk factors or known or suspected cardiovascular disease. We took a full clinical history, performed BAR, and obtained carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and left ventricular mass and ejection fraction. Patients were followed up for cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the independent association of investigation variables on outcomes. RESULTS The patients exhibited abnormal BAR (5.2 +/- 6.1% [mean +/- SD]) but showed normal nitrate-mediated dilation (9.9 +/- 7.2%) and normal mean IMT (0.67 +/- 0.12 mm [average]). Forty-nine deaths occurred over the median follow-up period of 24 months (interquartile range 10 to 34). Patients in the lowest tertile group of BAR (<2%) had significantly more events than those in the combined group of highest and mid-tertiles (p = 0.029, log-rank test). However, mean IMT (rather than flow-mediated dilation) was the vascular factor independently associated with mortality, even in the subgroup (n = 271) with no coronary artery disease and low risk. CONCLUSIONS Brachial artery reactivity is lower in patients with events, but is not an independent predictor of cardiovascular outcomes in this cohort of patients. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Distribution of major health risks: findings from the global burden of disease study

Background Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness. Methods and Findings For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity) 43%-61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1-3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median. Conclusions Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden.

Lifestyle still predicts mortality in older men with established vascular disease

Background. It is uncertain whether accepted associations between health behaviors and mortality are pertinent to elderly people. No previous studies have examined the patterns of lifestyle in elderly men with and without clinically evident vascular disease by using a lifestyle score to predict survival. Methods. We measured prevalence of a healthy lifestyle (four or more healthy behaviors out of eight) and examined survival in 11,745 men aged 65-83 years participating in a randomized population-based trial of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Perth, Western Australia. After stratifying participants into five groups according to history and symptoms of vascular disease, we compared survival of men in each subgroup with that of 'healthy' men with no history or symptoms of vascular disease. Results. Invitations to screening produced a corrected response of 70.5%. After adjusting for age and place of birth, having an unhealthy lifestyle was associated with an increase of 20% in the likelihood of death from any cause within 5 years (95% CI: 10-30%). This pattern was consistently evident across subgroups defined by history of vascular disease, but was less evident for deaths from vascular disease. Conclusions. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining a healthy lifestyle through to old age, regardless of history of vascular disease. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

White blood cell count predicts reduction in coronary heart disease mortality with pravastatin

Background-Elevated serum inflammatory marker levels are associated with a greater long-term risk of cardiovascular events. Because 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme-A reductase inhibitors (statins) may have an antiinflammatory action, it has been suggested that patients with elevated inflammatory marker levels may have a greater reduction in cardiovascular risk with statin treatment. Methods and Results-We evaluated the association between the white blood cell count (WBC) and coronary heart disease mortality during a mean follow-up of 6.0 years in the Long-Term Intervention With Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) Study, a clinical trial comparing pravastatin (40 mg/d) with a placebo in 9014 stable patients with previous myocardial infarction or unstable angina. An increase in baseline WBC was associated with greater coronary heart disease mortality in patients randomized to placebo (hazard ratio for 1 X 10(9)/L increase in WBC, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.25; P<0.001) but not pravastatin (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.09; P=0.56; P for interaction=0.004). The numbers of coronary heart disease deaths prevented per 1000 patients treated with pravastatin were 0, 9, 30, and 38 for baseline WBC quartiles of <5.9, 6.0 to 6.9, 7.0 to 8.1, and >8.2X10(9)/L, respectively. WBC was a stronger predictor of this treatment benefit than the ratio of total to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and a global measure of cardiac risk. There was also a greater reduction (P=0.052) in the combined incidence of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and stroke with pravastatin as baseline WBC increased ( by quartile: 3, 41, 61, and 60 events prevented per 1000 patients treated, respectively). Conclusions-These data support the hypothesis that individuals with evidence of inflammation may obtain a greater benefit from statin therapy.

Role of smoking in global and regional cardiovascular mortality

Background - Smoking is a major cause of cardiovascular disease mortality. There is little information on how it contributes to global and regional cause-specific mortality from cardiovascular diseases for which background risk varies because of other risks. Method and Results - We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) and the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease mortality database to estimate smoking-attributable deaths from ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and a cluster of other cardiovascular diseases for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.62 (95% CI, 1.27 to 2.04) million cardiovascular deaths in the world, 11% of total global cardiovascular deaths, were due to smoking. Of these, 1.17 million deaths were among men and 450 000 among women. There were 670 000 (95% CI, 440 000 to 920 000) smoking-attributable cardiovascular deaths in the developing world and 960 000 (95% CI, 770 000 to 1 200 000) in industrialized regions. Ischemic heart disease accounted for 54% of smoking-attributable cardiovascular mortality, followed by cerebrovascular disease (25%). There was variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of various cardiovascular diseases. Conclusions - More than 1 in every 10 cardiovascular deaths in the world in the year 2000 were attributable to smoking, demonstrating that it is an important preventable cause of cardiovascular mortality.

Ultra-endurance exercise and oxidative damage: Implications for cardiovascular health

At least 30 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity accumulated on most, preferably all days is considered the minimum level necessary to reduce the risk of developing cardiovascular disease. Despite an unclear explanation, some epidemiological data paradoxically suggest that a very high volume of exercise is associated with a decrease in cardiovascular health. Although ultra-endurance exercise training has been shown to increase antioxidant defences (and therefore confer a protective effect against oxidative stress), an increase in oxidative stress may contribute to the development of atherosclerosis via oxidative modification of low-density lipoprotein (LDL). Research has also shown that ultra-endurance exercise is associated with acute cardiac dysfunction and injury, and these may also be related to an increase in free radical production. Longitudinal studies are needed to assess whether antioxidant defences are adequate to prevent LDL oxidation that may occur as a result of increased free radical production during very high volumes of exercise. In addition, this work will assist in understanding the accrued effect of repeated ultra-endurance exercise-induced myocardial damage.

Assessing the quality of risk factor survey data: lessons from the WHO MONICA Project

Background and purpose Survey data quality is a combination of the representativeness of the sample, the accuracy and precision of measurements, data processing and management with several subcomponents in each. The purpose of this paper is to show how, in the final risk factor surveys of the WHO MONICA Project, information on data quality were obtained, quantified, and used in the analysis. Methods and results In the WHO MONICA (Multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) Project, the information about the data quality components was documented in retrospective quality assessment reports. On the basis of the documented information and the survey data, the quality of each data component was assessed and summarized using quality scores. The quality scores were used in sensitivity testing of the results both by excluding populations with low quality scores and by weighting the data by its quality scores. Conclusions Detailed documentation of all survey procedures with standardized protocols, training, and quality control are steps towards optimizing data quality. Quantifying data quality is a further step. Methods used in the WHO MONICA Project could be adopted to improve quality in other health surveys.