Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Inhibition of transmitter release and long-term depression in the avian hippocampus

Long-term depression has recently been shown to occur at glutamatergic synapses in the avian hippocampus and requires activation of calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II in the nerve terminal. Here using whole cell and intracellular recordings from brain slices, we show that the N-type calcium channel contributes significantly to glutamate release in the avian hippocampus. Activation of the metabotrobic gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA)(B) receptor by the specific agonist baclofen blocks synaptic transmission. The action of baclofen was associated with a change in paired pulse facilitation indicating that it resulted from a reduction in the probability of transmitter release, In contrast, no change in paired pulse facilitation was observed following the induction of long-term depression. These results show that activation of GABA(B) receptors and long-term depression reduce transmitter release by distinct mechanisms. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Further results on the relationship between mu-invariant measures and quasi-stationary distributions for absorbing continuous-time Markov chains

This note considers continuous-time Markov chains whose state space consists of an irreducible class, C, and an absorbing state which is accessible from C. The purpose is to provide results on mu-invariant and mu-subinvariant measures where absorption occurs with probability less than one. In particular, the well-known premise that the mu-invariant measure, m, for the transition rates be finite is replaced by the more natural premise that m be finite with respect to the absorption probabilities. The relationship between mu-invariant measures and quasi-stationary distributions is discussed. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceived need for mental health care, findings from the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being

Background. The Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being was designed to detect and describe psychiatric morbidity, associated disability, service use and perceived need for care. The survey employed a single-phase interview methodology, delivering a field questionnaire to a clustered probability sample of 10641 Australians. Perceived need was sampled with an instrument designed for this survey, the Perceived Need for Care Questionnaire (PNCQ). This questionnaire gathers information about five categories of perceived need, assigning each to one of four levels of perceived need. Reliability and validity studies showed satisfactory performance of the instrument. Methods. Perceived need for mental health care in the Australian population has been analysed using PNCQ data, relating this to diagnostic and service utilization data from the above survey. Results. The survey findings indicate that an estimated 13.8 % of the Australian population have perceived need for mental health care. Those who met interview criteria for a psychiatric diagnosis and also expressed perceived need make up 9.9 % of the population. An estimated 11.0% of the population are cases of untreated prevalence, a minority (3.6% of the population) of whom expressed perceived need for mental health care. Among persons using services, those without a psychiatric diagnosis based on interview criteria (4.4% of the population), showed high levels of perceived met need. Conclusions. The overall rate of perceived need found by this methodology lies between those found in the USA and Canada. The findings suggest that service use in the absence of diagnosis elicited by survey questionnaires may often represent successful intervention. In the survey, untreated prevalence was commonly not accompanied by perceived need for mental health care.

Robust Mixture Modelling Using the t Distribution

Normal mixture models are being increasingly used to model the distributions of a wide variety of random phenomena and to cluster sets of continuous multivariate data. However, for a set of data containing a group or groups of observations with longer than normal tails or atypical observations, the use of normal components may unduly affect the fit of the mixture model. In this paper, we consider a more robust approach by modelling the data by a mixture of t distributions. The use of the ECM algorithm to fit this t mixture model is described and examples of its use are given in the context of clustering multivariate data in the presence of atypical observations in the form of background noise.

Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Review of "Comorbidity, disability and the need for treatment for DSM-IV psychiatric disorders in an insured population"

Background: This study presents estimates of 12 month and current prevalences of DSM-IV disorders, and the related comor-bidity, disability and service utilization, derived from a national probability sample in Australia. Methods: The DSM-IV psychiatric disorders among persons aged 18 and over in the Australian population were assessed with data collected by lay interviewers using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, other screening interviews and measures of disability and service utilization. The response rate was 78.1% and the final sample size was 10,641 adults. Results: Close to 20% reported at least one twelve month disorder and 13% a disorder current within the past 30 days. ICD-10 diagnoses were also derived, DSM-IV was the more conservative classification whether or not the new clinical significance criteria was applied. Major depression, any personality disorder, and alcohol dependence were the three most common twelve month disorders, generalized anxiety disorder replaced alcohol dependence as the third most common current disorder. The sexes has similar rates of any disorder, but women had higher rates of affective and anxiety disorders, men higher rates of substance use disorders. Prevalence of most disorders declined with age and education, and were lower among those employed or married. Respondents whose symptoms met criteria for three or more disorders in the past year had greatly increased rates of disability and of mental health consultations. The affective and somatoform disorders were associated with the highest rates of disability. Only 36% of people with a mental disorder this year had consulted for a mental problem, and most had seen a general practitioner. We identified those with a current disorder who were disabled or multiply comorbid - only half had consulted and of those who had not, more than half said they did not need treatment. Conclusions: The 12 month prevalence was lower than reported in the US National Comorbidity Survey but method factors might account for this. The relationships between prevalence and demographic variables, and between comorbidity, disability and service utilization were similar to those found in the US survey. Australia has a national health insurance scheme with total coverage and access to medical help is available to all, commonly at little or no cost. We identify the high rate of not consulting among those with a current disorder, and additional disability or multiple comorbidity, as an important public health problem. Kessler argued for more research on barriers to professional help seeking. This report reinforces his conclusion and shows that economic barriers are not the dominant issue.

Vesicle-associated proteins and transmitter release from sympathetic ganglionic boutons

A method is reported for introducing peptides derived from SNARE proteins that control exocytosis of vesicles at boutons formed by sympathetic ganglion cells in tissue culture. These peptides were coupled to the DNA binding domain of the Drosophila transcription factor antennapedia, called penetratin, This facilitated the passage of peptides across the bouton membrane. FMI-43 was used to monitor the exocytosis of transmitter from depolarized boutons after their exposure to the penetratin-peptide sequences IETRHNEIIKLETSIRELHD of syntaxin and KGFLSSLFGGSSK of alpha -SNAP. both of which blocked secretion, whereas the peptide sequences SELDDRA-DALQAGASQFETSAAKLKRK of synaptobrevin did not. This report introduces a readily applicable method for determining the effect of different peptide sequences of vesicle-associated proteins on secretion at vertebrate boutons and presents an account of the effects of a selection of such peptides on exocytosis. NeuroReport 12:607-610 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

H-reflex modulation during passive lengthening and shortening of the human triceps surae

1. The present study investigated the effects of lengthening and shortening actions on IT-reflex amplitude. H-reflexes were evoked in the soleus (SOL) and medial gastroenemius (MG) of human subject, during passive isometric, lengthening and shortening actions performed at angular velocities of 0, +/-2, +/-5 and +/- 15 deg s(-1). 2. H-reflex amplitude, in froth SOL and MG were significantly depressed during passive lengthening actions and facilitated during passive shortening actions, when compared with the isometric R-reflex amplitude. 3. Four experiments were performed in which the latencies front the onset of movement to delivery of the stimulus were altered. Passive H-reflex modulation during lengthening actions was found tee begin at latencies of less than 60 ms suggesting that this inhibition was due to peripheral and/or spinal mechanisms. 4. It is postulated that, the H-reflex modulation seen in the present study is related to the tunic discharge of muscle spindle afferents and the consequent effects of transmission within the la pathway. Inhibition of the H-reflex at less than 60 ms after the onset of muscle lengthening may he attributed to several mechanisms, which cannot be distinguished using the current protocol. These may include the inability to evoke volleys in la fibres that are refractory following muscle spindle discharge during; rapid muscle lengthening, a reduced probability of transmitter release front the presynaptic terminal (homosynaptic post.-activation depression) and presynaptic inhibition of la afferents from plantar flexor agonists. Short latency facilitation of the H-reflex may be attributed to temporal summation of excitatory postsynaptic potentials arising from muscle spindle afferents during rapid muscle lengthening. At longer latencies, presynaptic inhibition of Ia afferents cannot be excluded as a potential inhibitory mechanism.

The relationship between cannabis use and other substance use in the general population

This study examined if (1) there is an association in the general population between cannabis use, DSM-IV abuse and dependence, and other substance use and DSM-IV substance abuse/dependence; (2) if so, is it explained by demographic characteristics or levels of neuroticism? It used data from the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being (NSMHWB), a stratified, multistage probability sample of 10641 adults, representative of the general population. DSM-IV diagnoses of substance abuse and dependence were derived using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). There was a strong bivariate association between involvement with cannabis use in the past 12 months and other substance use, abuse and dependence. In particular, cannabis abuse and dependence were highly associated with increased risks of other substance dependence. These associations remained after including other variables in multiple regression. Cannabis use without disorder was strongly related to other drug use, an association that was not explained by other variables considered here. The high likelihood of other substance use and substance use disorders needs to be considered among persons seeking treatment for cannabis use problems. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age gelation of UHT milk - A review

Gelation of UHT milk during storage (age gelation) is a major factor limiting its shelf-life. The gel which forms is a three-dimensional protein matrix initiated by interactions between the whey protein beta -lactoglobulin and the kappa -casein of the casein micelle during the high heat treatment. These interactions lead to the formation of a beta -lactoglobulin-kappa -casein complex (beta kappa -complex). A feasible mechanism of age gelation is based on a two-step process; in the first step, the beta kappa -complexes dissociate from the casein micelles due to the breakdown of multiple anchor sites on kappa -casein, and in the second step, these complexes aggregate into a three-dimensional matrix. When a critical volume concentration of the beta kappa -complex is attained, a gel of custard-like consistency is formed. Significant factors which influence the onset of gelation include the nature of the heat treatment, proteolysis during storage, milk composition and quality, seasonal milk production factors and storage temperature. In this review, age gelation is discussed in terms of these factors, causative mechanisms and procedures for controlling it.

Using biplots to interpret gene expression patterns in plants

Sum: Plant biologists in fields of ecology, evolution, genetics and breeding frequently use multivariate methods. This paper illustrates Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Gabriel's biplot as applied to microarray expression data from plant pathology experiments. Availability: An example program in the publicly distributed statistical language R is available from the web site (www.tpp.uq.edu.au) and by e-mail from the contact. Contact: scott.chapman@csiro.au.

Perceived need for mental health care: influences of diagnosis, demography and disability

Background. Recent major epidemiological studies have adopted increasingly multidimensional approaches to assessment. Several of these have included some assessment of perceived need for mental health care. The Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, conducted in 1997, included a particularly detailed examination of this construct, with an instrument with demonstrated reliability and validity. Methods. A clustered probability sample of 10641 Australians responded to the field questionnaire for this survey, including questions on perceived need either where there had been service utilization, or where a disorder was detected by administration of sections of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. The confidentialized unit record file generated from the survey was analysed for determinants of perceived need. Results. Perceived need is increased in females, in people in the middle years of adulthood, and in those who have affective disorders or co-morbidity. Effects of diagnosis and disability can account for most of the differences in gender specific rates. With correction for these effects through regression, there is less perceived need for social interventions and possibly more for counselling in females; disability is confirmed as strongly positively associated with perceived need, as are the presence of affective disorders or co-morbidity. Conclusions. The findings of this study underscore the imperative for mental health services to be attentive and responsive to consumer perceived need. The substantial majority of people who are significantly disabled by mental health problems are among those who see themselves as having such needs.