Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Aspects of adaptive management of coastal wetlands: Case studies of processes, conservation, restoration, impacts and assessment

Coastal wetlands are dynamic and include the freshwater-intertidal interface. In many parts of the world such wetlands are under pressure from increasing human populations and from predicted sea-level rise. Their complexity and the limited knowledge of processes operating in these systems combine to make them a management challenge.Adaptive management is advocated for complex ecosystem management (Hackney 2000; Meretsky et al. 2000; Thom 2000;National Research Council 2003).Adaptive management identifies management aims,makes an inventory/environmental assessment,plans management actions, implements these, assesses outcomes, and provides feedback to iterate the process (Holling 1978;Walters and Holling 1990). This allows for a dynamic management system that is responsive to change. In the area of wetland management recent adaptive approaches are exemplified by Natuhara et al. (2004) for wild bird management, Bunch and Dudycha (2004) for a river system, Thom (2000) for restoration, and Quinn and Hanna (2003) for seasonal wetlands in California. There are many wetland habitats for which we currently have only rudimentary knowledge (Hackney 2000), emphasizing the need for good information as a prerequisite for effective management. The management framework must also provide a way to incorporate the best available science into management decisions and to use management outcomes as opportunities to improve scientific understanding and provide feedback to the decision system. Figure 9.1 shows a model developed by Anorov (2004) based on the process-response model of Maltby et al. (1994) that forms a framework for the science that underlies an adaptive management system in the wetland context.

Beyond the middle: A report about literacy and numeracy development of target group students in the middle years of schooling: Volume 1

The report was commissioned by the Department of Education, Science and Training to investigate the perceived efficacy of middle years programmes in all States and Territories in improving the quality of teaching, learning and student outcomes, especially in literacy and numeracy and for student members of particular target groups. These target groups included students from lower socio-economic communities, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, students with a language background other than English, rural and remote students, and students struggling with the transition from middle/upper primary to the junior secondary years. The project involved large scale national and international literature reviews on Australian and international middle years approaches as well as an analysis of key literacy and numeracy teaching and learning strategies being used. In the report, there is emergent evidence of the relative efficacy of a combination of explicit state policy, dedicated funding and curriculum and professional development frameworks that are focused on the improvement of classroom pedagogy in the middle years. The programs that evidenced the greatest current and potential value for target group students tended to have developed in state policy environments that encouraged a structural rather than adjunct approach to middle years innovations. The authors conclude that in order to translate the gains made into sustainable improvement of educational results in literacy and numeracy for target groups, there is a need for a second generation of middle years theorising, research, development and practice.

Selective down-regulation of the astrocyte glutamate transporters GLT-1 and GLAST within the medial thalamus in experimental wernicke's encephalopathy

Although earlier studies on thiamine deficiency have reported increases in extracellular glutamate concentration in the thalamus, a vulnerable region of the brain in this disorder, the mechanism by which this occurs has remained unresolved. Treatment with pyrithiamine, a central thiamine antagonist, resulted in a 71 and 55% decrease in protein levels of the astrocyte glutamate transporters GLT-1 and GLAST, respectively, by immunoblotting in the medial thalamus of day 14 symptomatic rats at loss of righting reflexes. These changes occurred prior to the onset of convulsions and pannecrosis. Loss of both GLT-1 and GLAST transporter sites was also confirmed in this region of the thalamus at the symptomatic stage using immunohistochemical methods. In contrast, no change in either transporter protein was detected in the non-vulnerable frontal parietal cortex. These effects are selective; protein levels of the astrocyte GABA transporter GAT-3 were unaffected in the medial thalamus. In addition, astrocyte-specific glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) content was unchanged in this brain region, suggesting that astrocytes are spared in this disorder. Loss of GLT-1 or GLAST protein was not observed on day 12 of treatment, indicating that down-regulation of these transporters occurs within 48 h prior to loss of righting reflexes. Finally, GLT-1 content was positively correlated with levels of the neurofilament protein alpha -internexin, suggesting that early neuronal drop-out may contribute to the down-regulation of this glutamate transporter and subsequent pannecrosis. A selective, focal loss of GLT-1 and GLAST transporter proteins provides a rational explanation for the increase in interstitial glutamate levels, and may play a major role in the selective vulnerability of thalamic structures to thiamine deficiency-induced cell death.

Binding and functional studies with the growth hormone receptor antagonist, B2036-PEG (pegvisomant), reveal effects of pegylation and evidence that it binds to a receptor dimers

GH actions are dependent on receptor dimerization. The GH receptor antagonist, B2036-PEG, has been developed for treating acromegaly. B2036 has mutations in site 1 to enhance receptor binding and in site 2 to block receptor dimerization. Pegylation (B2036-PEG) increases half-life and lowers immunogenicity, but high concentrations are required to control insulin-like growth factor-I levels. We examined antagonist structure and function and the impact of pegylation on biological efficacy. Unpegylated B2036 had a 4.5-fold greater affinity for GH binding protein (GHBP) than GH but similar affinity for membrane receptor. Pegylation substantially reduced membrane binding affinity and receptor antagonism, as assessed by a transcription assay, by 39- and 20-fold, respectively. GHBP reduced antagonist activity of unpegylated B2036 but did not effect antagonism by B2036-PEG. B2036 down-regulated receptors, and membrane binding sites doubled in the presence of dimerization-blocking antibodies, suggesting that B2036 binds to a receptor dimer. It is concluded that the high concentration requirement of B2036-PEG for clinical efficacy relates to pegylation, which decreases binding to membrane receptor but has the advantages of reduced clearance, immunogenicity, and interactions with GHBP. Our studies suggest that B2036 binds to a receptor dimer and induces internalization but not signaling.

Dorsal and ventral medullary catecholamine cell groups contribute differentially to systemic interleukin-1 beta-induced hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis responses

Medial parvocellular paraventricular corticotropin-releasing hormone (mPVN CRH) cells are critical in generating hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis responses to systemic interleukin-1 beta (IL-1 beta). However, although it is understood that catecholamine inputs are important in initiating mPVN CRH cell responses to IL-1 beta, the contributions of distinct brainstem catecholamine cell groups are not known. We examined the role of nucleus tractus solitarius (NTS) and ventrolateral medulla (VLM) catecholamine cells in the activation of mPVN CRH, hypothalamic oxytocin (OT) and central amygdala cells in response to IL-1 beta (1 mug/kg, i.a.). Immunolabelling for the expression of c-fos was used as a marker of neuronal activation in combination with appropriate cytoplasmic phenotypic markers. First we confirmed that PVN 6-hydroxydopamine lesions, which selectively depleted catecholaminergic terminals, significantly reduced IL-1 beta -induced mPVN CRH cell activation. The contribution of VLM (A1/C1 cells) versus NTS (A2 cells) catecholamine cells to mPVN CRH cell responses was then examined by placing ibotenic acid lesions in either the VLM or NTS. The precise positioning of these lesions was guided by prior retrograde tracing studies in which we mapped the location of IL-1 beta -activated VLM and NTS cells that project to the mPVN. Both VLM and NTS lesions reduced the mPVN CRH and OT cell responses to IL-1 beta. Unlike VLM lesions, NTS lesions also suppressed the recruitment of central amygdala neurons. These studies provide novel evidence that both the NTS and VLM catecholamine cells have important, but differential, contributions to the generation of IL-1 beta -induced HPA axis responses. Copyright (C) 2001 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Towards a molecular epidemiology of alcohol dependence analysing the interplay of genetic and environmental risk factors

Background Progress in identifying genetic factors protective against alcohol dependence (AlcD) requires a paradigm shift in psychiatric epidemiology. Aims To integrate analysis of research into the genetics of alcoholism. Method Data from prospective questionnaire and interview surveys of the Australian twin panel, and from a subsample who underwent alcohol challenge, were analysed. Results In men, effects of alcohol dehydrogenase ADH2*1/*2 genotype or high alcohol sensitivity (risk-decreasing), and of history of childhood conduct disorder, or having monozygotic co-twin or twin sister with AlcD (risk-increasing) were significant and comparable in magnitude. Religious affiliation (Anglican versus other) was associated with the ADH2 genotype, but did not explain the associations with AlcD symptoms. No protective effect of the ADH2*1/*2 genotype was observed in women. Conclusions The early onset and strong familial aggregation of AlcD, and opportunity for within-family tests of genetic association to avoid confounding effects, make epidemiological family studies of adolescents and young adults and their families a priority.

New perspectives on the role of aldosterone excess in cardiovascular disease

1. Evidence from recent experimental and clinical studies suggests that excessive circulating levels of aldosterone can bring about adverse cardiovascular sequelae independent of the effects on blood pressure. Examples of these sequelae are the development of myocardial and vascular fibrosis in uninephrectomized, salt-loaded rats infused with mineralocorticoids and, in humans, an association of aldosterone with left ventricular hypertrophy, impaired diastolic and systolic function, salt and water retention causing aggravation of congestion in patients with established congestive cardiac failure (CCF), reduced vascular compliance and an increased risk of arrhythmias (resulting from intracardiac fibrosis, hypokalaemia, hypomagnesaemia, reduced baroreceptor sensitivity and potentiation of catecholamine effects). 2. These sequelae of aldosterone excess may contribute to the pathogenesis and worsen the prognosis of CCF and hypertension. 3. The heart and blood vessels may be capable of extra-adrenal aldosterone biosynthesis, raising the possibility that aldosterone may have paracrine or autocrine (and not just endocrine) effects on cardiovascular tissues. 4. The high prevalence of CCF, which is associated with secondary aldosteronism, and primary aldosteronism (PAL; recently recognized to be a much more common cause of hypertension than was previously thought) argue for an important role for aldosterone excess as a cause of cardiovascular injury. 5. The recognition of non-blood pressure-dependent adverse sequelae of aldosterone excess raises the question as to whether normotensive individuals with PAL, who have been detected as a result of genetic or biochemical screening among families with inherited forms of PAL, are at excess risk of cardiovascular events. 6. Provided that patients are carefully investigated in order to permit the appropriate selection of specific surgical (laparoscopic adrenalectomy for PAL that lateralizes on adrenal venous sampling) or medical (treatment with aldosterone antagonist medications) management and safety considerations for the use of aldosterone antagonists are kept in mind, the appreciation of a widening role for aldosterone in cardiovascular disease should provide a substantially better outlook for many patients with CCF and hypertension.

Crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction studies of FHA domains of Dun1 and Rad53 protein kinases

Forkhead-associated (FHA) domains are modular protein–protein interaction domains of ~130 amino acids present in numerous signalling proteins. FHA-domain-dependent protein interactions are regulated by phosphorylation of target proteins and FHA domains may be multifunctional phosphopeptide-recognition modules. FHA domains of the budding yeast cell-cycle checkpoint protein kinases Dun1p and Rad53p have been crystallized. Crystals of the Dun1-FHA domain exhibit the symmetry of the space group P6122 or P6522, with unit-cell parameters a = b = 127.3, c = 386.3 Å; diffraction data have been collected to 3.1 Å resolution on a synchrotron source. Crystals of the N-terminal FHA domain (FHA1) of Rad53p diffract to 4.0 Å resolution on a laboratory X-ray source and have Laue-group symmetry 4/mmm, with unit-cell parameters a = b = 61.7, c = 104.3 Å.

Studies of solute self-association by sedimentation equilibrium: allowance for effects of thermodynamic non-ideality beyond the consequences of nearest-neighbor interactions

A sedimentation equilibrium study of a-chymotrypsin self-association in acetate-chloride buffer, pH 4.1 I 0.05, has been used to illustrate determination of a dimerization constant under conditions where thermodynamic non-ideality is manifested beyond the consequences of nearest-neighbor interactions. Because the expressions for the experimentally determinable interaction parameters comprise a mixture of equilibrium constant and excluded volume terms, the assignment of reasonable magnitudes to the relevant virial coefficients describing non-associative cluster formation is essential for the evaluation of a reliable estimate of the dimerization constant. Determination of these excluded volume parameters by numerical integration over the potential-of-mean-force is shown to be preferable to their calculation by approximate analytical solutions of the integral for this relatively small enzyme monomer with high net charge (+ 10) under conditions of low ionic strength (0.05 M). (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Ultracentrifugal studies of the effect of molecular crowding by trimethylamine N-oxide on the self-association of muscle glycogen phosphorylase b

The suitability of sedimentation equilibrium for characterizing the self-association of muscle glycogen phosphorylase b has been reappraised. Whereas sedimentation equilibrium distributions for phosphorylase b in 40 mM Hepes buffer (pH 6.8) supplemented with 1 mM AMP signify a lack of chemical equilibrium attainment, those in buffer supplemented additionally with potassium sulfate conform with the requirements of a dimerizing system in chemical as we:ll as sedimentation equilibrium. Because the rate of attainment of chemical equilibrium under the former conditions is sufficiently slow to allow resolution of the dimeric and tetrameric enzyme species by sedimentation velocity, this procedure has been used to examine the effects of thermodynamic nonideality arising from molecular crowding try trimethylamine N-oxide on the self-association behaviour of phosphorylase b. In those terms the marginally enhanced extent of phosphorylase b self-association observed in the presence of high concentrations of the cosolute is taken to imply that the effects of thermodynamic nonideality on the dimer-tetramer equilibrium are being countered by those displacing the T reversible arrow R isomerization equilibrium for dimer towards the smaller, nonassociating T state. Because the R state is the enzymically active form, an inhibitory effect is the predicted consequence of molecular crowding by high concentrations of unrelated solutes. Thermodynamic nonideality thus provides an alternative explanation for the inhibitory effects of high concentrations of glycerol, sucrose and ethylene glycol on phosphorylase b activity, phenomena that have been attributed to extremely weak interaction of these cryoprotectants with the T state of the enzyme.