Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Ecological distribution of mosquito larvae of the Anopheles punctulatus group on Niolam (Lihir) Island, Papua New Guinea

We surveyed the larval habitats of member,, of the Anopheles punctulatus group of mosquitoes on Niolam (Lihir) Island. Papua New Guinea. Identification of this group was undertaken by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of the amplified internal transcribed spacer unit 2 of rDNA. because morphologic separation of member species is unreliable. The most widespread malaria vector species and their most common larval habitats identified to aid source-reduction programs for malaria control. The most ubiquitous species was An. punctulatus, followed by An. farauti no. 2. then An. farauti s.s. Anopheles punctulatus has increased relative to An.farauti s.l. since the start of development projects on Lihir Island. The most common larval habitats were shallow temporary pools with clay substrate and with plants or floatage. These habitats. mostly encountered alongside poorly drained roads, may be increased by development projects.

Distribution of Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis and Prevotella intermedia in an Australian population

Background, aim: The present study describes (i) the natural distribution of the three putative periodontopathogens Porphyromonas gingivalis, Prevotella intermedia and Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans in an Australian population and (ii) the relationship between these organisms, pocket depths and supragingival plaque scores. Methods: Subgingival plaque was collected from the shallowest and deepest probing site in each sextant of the dentition. In total, 6030 subgingival plaque samples were collected from 504 subjects. An ELISA utilising pathogen-specific monoclonal antibodies was used to quantitate bacterial numbers. Results:: A. actinomycetemcomitans was the most frequently detected organism (22.8% of subjects) followed by P. gingivalis and P. intermedia (14.7% and 9.5% of subjects respectively). The majority of infected subjects (83%) were colonised by a single species of organism. A. actinomyceteincomitans presence was overrepresented in the youngest age group but under-represented in the older age groups. Conversely, P. gingivalis and P. intermedia presence was under-represented in the youngest age group but over-represented in the older age groups. Differing trends in the distribution of these bacteria were observed between subjects depending upon the site of the infection or whether a single or mixed infection was present; however, these differences did not reach significance. Bacterial presence was strongly associated with pocket depth for both A. actinomyceteincomitans and P. gingivalis. For A. actinomycetemcomitans, the odds of a site containing this bacterium decrease with deeper pockets. In contrast, for P. gingivalis the odds of a site being positive are almost six times greater for pockets >3 ram than for pockets less than or equal to3 nun. These odds increase further to 15.3 for pockets deeper than 5 mm. The odds of a site being P. intermedia positive were marginally greater (1.16) for pockets deeper than 3 mm. Conclusions: This cross-sectional study in a volunteer Australian population, demonstrated recognised periodontal pathogens occur as part of the flora of the subgingival plaque. Prospective longitudinal studies are needed to examine the positive relationship between pocket depth and pathogen presence with periodontal disease initiation and/or progression.

Basic fibroblast growth factor and fibroblast growth factor receptors in adult olfactory epithelium

Basic fibroblast growth factor (FGF2) stimulates proliferation of the globose basal cells, the neuron:ll precursor in the olfactory epithelium. The present study investigates the expression of basic fibroblast growth factor and fibroblast growth factor receptors in the adult olfactory epithelium. FGF2 immunoreactivity was expressed widely in the olfactory epithelium, with the highest density of immunoreactivity in the supporting cells. In contrast, most cells in the epithelium expressed FGF2 mRNA. Fibroblast growth factor receptor-1 (FGFr1) immunoreactivity was densest in the basal cell and neuronal layers of the olfactory epithelium and on the apical surface of supporting cells. In the lamina propria FGF2 immunoreactivity and mRNA were densest in cells close to the olfactory nerve bundles. FGFr1 immunoreactivity was heaviest on the olfactory ensheathing cells. Using reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction analysis, the olfactory epithelium was shown to express only three receptor splice variants, including one (FGFr1c) with which basic fibroblast growth factor has high affinity. Other receptor splice variants were present in the lamina propria. Taken together, these observations indicate endogenous sources of FGF? within the olfactory epithelium and lamina propria and suggest autocrine and paracrine pathways via which FGF2 might regulate olfactory neurogenesis. The observation of only three receptor splice variants in the olfactory epithelium limits the members of the fibroblast growth factor family which could act in the olfactory epithelium. The widespread distribution of receptors suggests that fibroblast growth factors may have roles other than proliferation of globose basal cells. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Derivation of the probability distribution function for the local density of states of a disordered quantum wire via the replica trick and supersymmetry

We consider the statistical properties of the local density of states of a one-dimensional Dirac equation in the presence of various types of disorder with Gaussian white-noise distribution. It is shown how either the replica trick or supersymmetry can be used to calculate exactly all the moments of the local density of states.' Careful attention is paid to how the results change if the local density of states is averaged over atomic length scales. For both the replica trick and supersymmetry the problem is reduced to finding the ground state of a zero-dimensional Hamiltonian which is written solely in terms of a pair of coupled spins which are elements of u(1, 1). This ground state is explicitly found for the particular case of the Dirac equation corresponding to an infinite metallic quantum wire with a single conduction channel. The calculated moments of the local density of states agree with those found previously by Al'tshuler and Prigodin [Sov. Phys. JETP 68 (1989) 198] using a technique based on recursion relations for Feynman diagrams. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution of C-14 Cylindrospermopsin in vivo in the mouse

Radiolabelled C-14 cylindrospermopsin (CYN) has been prepared and used to investigate the distribution and excretion of CYN in vivo in male Quackenbush mice. At a dose of 0.2 mg/kg (i.e., approx. median lethal dose) the following mean (SID) urinary and faecal recoveries (cumulative) were obtained, respectively: (0-6 hours, n = 4) 48.2 (29.3)%, 11.9 (21.4)%; (0-12 hours, n = 12) 66.0 (27.1)%, 5.7 (5.6)%; (0-24 hours, n = 12) 68.4 (26.7)%, 8.5 (8.1)%. Mean (SD) recoveries from livers at 6 hours were 20.6 (6.4)% (n = 4), at 48 hours 13.1 (7.7)% (n = 8), and 5-7 days were 2.1 (2.1)% (n = 8). A substantial amount (up to 23%) can be retained in the liver for up to 48 hours with a lesser amount retained in the kidneys. The excretion patterns show substantial interindividual variability between predominantly faecal or urinary excretion, but these patterns are not related in any simple manner to the outcome in terms of toxicity. There is at least one methanol-extractable metabolite as well as a nonmethanol-extractable metabolite in the liver. The methanol-extractable metabolite was not found in the kidney and is more hydrophilic than CYN itself on reverse phase. (C) 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Cavity QED analog of the harmonic-oscillator probability distribution function and quantum collapses

We establish a connection between the simple harmonic oscillator and a two-level atom interacting with resonant, quantized cavity and strong driving fields, which suggests an experiment to measure the harmonic-oscillator's probability distribution function. To achieve this, we calculate the Autler-Townes spectrum by coupling the system to a third level. We find that there are two different regions of the atomic dynamics depending on the ratio of the: Rabi frequency Omega (c) of the cavity field to that of the Rabi frequency Omega of the driving field. For Omega (c)

Subtropical drosophilids in Australia can be characterized by adult distribution across vegetation type and by height above forest floor

Understanding the pattern in which adult drosophilids of different species are distributed across and within different vegetation types is necessary for accurate interpretation of their local ecology and diversity. Such studies have been conducted mainly in temperate regions, and there is no basis for extrapolating their conclusions to tropical areas. This study describes the vertical distribution (0-20 m) of drosophilids attracted to banana baits in five different vegetation types in subtropical eastern Australia including open woodland, and rain-forest types. The distribution of most of the 15 common species could be characterized three-dimensionally by vegetation type and height above forest floor. Only one species, Scaptodrosophila lativittata, was common in all vegetation types and it was a canopy species in rain forests and a ground-level species in open woodland. Vertical distribution of some species clearly matched that of their larval hosts, but it did not in others. For example, the fungivore Leucophenga scutellata was mostly trapped well above the forest floor, yet it breeds at ground level, suggesting behavioural mode can influence vertical distributions. We conclude that the vertical dimension, although still poorly understood in relation to drosophilid habitats, needs to be taken into account when conducting and interpreting studies aimed at understanding drosophilid populations and communities in the subtropics.