Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Highlights of drought policy and related science in Australia and the USA

Patterns of water supply and use in Australia and the U.S.A. differ in many ways. This results in different perceptions concerning the nature of drought and policy approaches to its management. This paper discusses the differences and similarities and explores lessons that policy makers in both countries can learn from one another. A key difference between the two countries is that whereas drought is perceived in Australia essentially in terms of its impact on agriculture, in the U.S. both perceptions and policy are also heavily influenced by the impact of drought on urban communities. This has led to different policy emphases. In 1992 Australia established its National Drought Policy; the U.S. is presently considering the adoption of a national drought policy. These policies highlight drought being accepted as part of natural climate variability, rather than as a natural disaster. They also emphasize the protection of the natural resource base.

Advances in neurotrauma in Australia 1970-2000

The management of neurotrauma in Australia has been one of the significant public health triumphs during the last 30 years of the 20th century. State and national government agencies act in a coordinated fashion to collect data and to promote research on how to manage neurotrauma patients. Between 1970 and 1995, fatalities from road accidents decreased by 47%. Hospital admissions have decreased by 40% despite a 40% increase in the population and a 120% increase in registered vehicles. Fatalities per 10,000 registered vehicles were 8.05% in 1970 and they fell to 1.84% per vehicles in 1995, while fatalities per 10;000 population were 3 in 1970 falling to 1.11 in 1995. Hospitalization from road crashes decreased 23% between March 1988 and March 1997. Public education has steadily improved, backed by the state public health sources. A uniform code of road safety laws has been adopted, backed by legislation and legal penalties and increasing police enforcement. Clinical care of patients has improved as a result of faster communications, tele-medicine, trauma systems, the CT scanner; intensive care units, and improved monitoring. Patient rehabilitation and counseling are now carried out at units accredited by the Australian Council on Health Care Standards.

Effect of fruit maturity on the response of 'Kensington' mango fruit to heat treatment

The effects of conditioning and hot water treatments on immature and mature 'Kensington' mangoes were examined. A hot water treatment of 47 degreesC fruit core temperature held for 15 min increased weight loss (50%), fruit softness (15%), disrupted starch hydrolysis and interacted with maturity to reduce the skin yellowness (40-51%) of early harvested fruit. Immature fruit were more susceptible to hot water treatment-induced skin scalding, starch layer and starch spot injuries and disease. Conditioning fruit at 40 degreesC for up to 16 h before hot water treatment accelerated fruit ripening, as reflected in higher total soluble solids and lower titratable acidity levels. As fruit maturity increased, the tolerance to hot water treatment-induced skin scalding and the retention of starch layers and starch spots increased and susceptibility to lenticel spotting decreased. A conditioning treatment of either 22 degrees or 40 degreesC before hot water treatment could prevent the appearance of cavities at all maturity levels. The 40 degreesC conditioning temperature was found to be more effective in increasing fruit heat tolerance than the 22 degreesC treatment; the longer the time of conditioning at 40 degreesC, the more effective the treatment (16 v. 4 h). For maximum fruit quality, particularly for export markets, it is recommended that mature fruit are selected and conditioned before hot water treatment to reduce the risk of heat damage.

Primary to secondary LOTE articulation: A local case in Australia

In this study of articulation issues related to languages other than English (LOTE), "articulation" is defined and the challenges surrounding it are overviewed. Data taken from an independent school's admission documents over a 4-year period provide insights and reveal trends concerning students' preferences for language study, LOTE study continuity, and reasons for LOTE selection. The data also provides an accounting of some multiple LOTE learning experiences. The analysis indicates that many students who begin a LOTE in the early grades are thwarted in becoming proficient, because (1) continuation in the language is impossible due to unavailability of instruction; (2) expanded learning is hampered by teachers' inability to deal with a range of learners, (3) extended learning is hampered by administrative decisions or policies, or (4) students lose interest in the first LOTE and switch to another. Finally, a call is made for data gathering and research in local contexts to gain a better understanding of LOTE articulation challenges at the local, state, national, and international levels.

Mobile digital technology: Emerging issues for marketing

The growth of direct marketing has been attributed to rapid advances in technology and the changing market context. The fundamental ability of direct marketers to communicate with consumers and to elicit a response, combined with the ubiquitous nature and power of mobile digital technology, provides a synergy that will increase the potential for the success of direct marketing. The aim of this paper is to provide an analytical framework identifying the developments in the digital environment from e-marketing to m-marketing, and to alert direct marketers to the enhanced capabilities available to them.

Oral cancer in Australia: 1983-1996

Background: The aims of this study were to identify differences in oral cancer incidence and mortality between sexes, age groups, oral sites and Australian States and Territories and recent trends in oral cancer incidence, mortality and age-profile over time. Methods: Data were obtained from the Australian Institute for Health and Welfare and were age-standardized to the Australian 1991 Population Standard. Differences and trends were assessed with the Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-ranks test and the Spearman correlation test, respectively. Results: In Australia in 1996, there were 2173 new oral cancers and 400 deaths due to oral cancer, the majority of oral cancers were in the 60+ age group, oral cancer affected men more than women (>2:1), lip cancer accounted for more than 50 per cent of oral cancers and the oral cancer mortality-to-incidence (M:I) ratio was greatest in ACT and NSW and least in QLD and SA. From 1983 to 1996, the annual incidence of lip cancer increased while the M:I ratio of lip cancer decreased. The annual incidence of cervical cancer decreased whereas the annual incidence of intra-oral cancer remained constant. The M:I ratio of cervical cancer was consistently lower than the MA ratio of intra-oral cancer. Conclusions; Reducing exposure to environmental carcinogens, increasing public awareness and population screening may reduce the incidence and mortality of oral cancer in Australia.

The global sports-media nexus: Reflections on the 'Super League Saga' in Australia

Despite the social and (increasingly) commercial significance of sport and sporting bodies worldwide, they remain under-represented in the mainstream management literature. One of the more recent and dramatic examples of the global sports-media nexus is the 'Super League saga' in Australia. This paper recounts the tale of the Super League saga, providing a holistic analysis of the events and competitive issues arising by drawing on literatures concerning the economic nature and value of sports leagues, the resource-based view of the firm and the nature of psychological contracts in changing environments. The analysis confirms the general monopolistic tendencies of professional sports leagues in an increasingly global industry driven by the sports-media nexus, in accord with a number of comparable cases internationally. The particular conditions of the Australian marketplace that exacerbate this tendency beyond, for example, that found in the USA, and differences in the outcomes of battles between rival leagues are also considered. The Super League saga portrays the importance of effective management of resources key to the production of the 'rugby league product' including, among others, the often over-looked importance of careful management of local resources for the success of global strategies, and, where human resources are key, the importance of psychological contracting. The holistic analysis of the Super League saga in Australia affords lessons that extend well beyond the realm of sports.

Mango stem-end rot (Botryosphaeria dothidea) disease control by partial-pressure infiltration of fungicides

The in vitro efficacy of several fungicides against Botryosphaeria dothidea (syn. Dothiorella dominicana) and their in vivo efficacy in controlling mango cv. Kensington Pride stem-end rot on partial-pressure infiltration v. dip treatment of green mature fruit was evaluated. In vitro sensitivity of B. dothidea to Benlate (benomyl), Sportak (prochloraz) and Scala (pyrimethanil) at 10 dilutions of the manufacturer's recommended rate was first determined at typical cold (13degreesC) and shelf (23degreesC) storage temperatures. The effectiveness of partial-pressure infiltration and conventional hot (52degreesC) or cold (26degreesC) dipping of fruit after harvest was then evaluated using the commercially recommended rate for each fungicide. In vitro, Benlate and Sportak prevented the growth of B. dothidea at both storage temperatures and at all concentrations, while Scala partially controlled growth of the pathogen. Benlate was the most effective fungicide for stem-end rot control. Sportak and Scala resulted in stem-end rot control when applied by partial-pressure infiltration, but not as dips. Partial-pressure infiltration holds promise for enhancing the efficacy of otherwise less effective but alternative fungicides for control of stem-end rot diseases.