Simulation of air traffic controllers' behaviour using the operator choice model

The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.

Incremental model transformation for the evolution of model-driven systems

Model transformations are an integral part of model-driven development. Incremental updates are a key execution scenario for transformations in model-based systems, and are especially important for the evolution of such systems. This paper presents a strategy for the incremental maintenance of declarative, rule-based transformation executions. The strategy involves recording dependencies of the transformation execution on information from source models and from the transformation definition. Changes to the source models or the transformation itself can then be directly mapped to their effects on transformation execution, allowing changes to target models to be computed efficiently. This particular approach has many benefits. It supports changes to both source models and transformation definitions, it can be applied to incomplete transformation executions, and a priori knowledge of volatility can be used to further increase the efficiency of change propagation.

Ameloblast apoptosis and IGF-1 receptor expression in the continuously erupting rat incisor model

Enamel-producing cells (ameloblasts) pass through several phenotypic and functional stages during enamel formation. In the transition between secretory and maturation stages, about one quarter of the ameloblasts suddenly undergo apoptosis. We have studied this phenomenon using the continuously erupting rat incisor model. A special feature of this model is that all stages of ameloblast differentiation are presented within a single longitudinal section of the developing tooth. This permits investigation of the temporal sequence of gene and growth factor receptor expression during ameloblast differentiation and apoptosis. We describe the light and electron microscopic morphology of ameloblast apoptosis and the pattern of insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor expression by ameloblasts in the continuously erupting rat incisor model. In the developing rat incisor, ameloblast apoptosis is associated with downregulated expression of the insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that ameloblasts are hard wired for apoptosis and that insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor expression is required to block the default apoptotic pathway. Possible mechanisms of insulin-like growth factor-1 inhibition of ameloblast apoptosis are presented. The rat incisor model may be useful in studies of physiological apoptosis as it presents apoptosis in a predictable pattern in adult tissues.

Modeling of hepatic elimination and organ distribution kinetics with the extended convection-dispersion model

The conventional convection-dispersion (also called axial dispersion) model is widely used to interrelate hepatic availability (F) and clearance (Cl) with the morphology and physiology of the liver and to predict effects such as changes in liver blood flow on F and Cl. An extended form of the convection-dispersion model has been developed to adequately describe the outflow concentration-time profiles for vascular markers at both short and long times after bolus injections into perfused livers. The model, based on flux concentration and a convolution of catheters and large vessels, assumes that solute elimination in hepatocytes follows either fast distribution into or radial diffusion in hepatocytes. The model includes a secondary vascular compartment, postulated to be interconnecting sinusoids. Analysis of the mean hepatic transit time (MTT) and normalized variance (CV2) of solutes with extraction showed that the discrepancy between the predictions of MTT and CV2 for the extended and conventional models are essentially identical irrespective of the magnitude of rate constants representing permeability, volume, and clearance parameters, providing that there is significant hepatic extraction. In conclusion, the application of a newly developed extended convection-dispersion model has shown that the unweighted conventional convection-dispersion model can be used to describe the disposition of extracted solutes and, in particular, to estimate hepatic availability and clearance in booth experimental and clinical situations.