Trends in cigarette smoking in 36 populations from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s: Findings from the WHO MONICA Project

Objectives. This report analyzes cigarette smoking over 10 years in populations in the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project (to monitor trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease). Methods. Over 300 000 randomly selected subjects aged 25 to 64 years participated in surveys conducted in geographically defined populations. Results. For men, smoking prevalence decreased by more than 5% in 16 of the 36 study populations, remained static in most others, but increased in Beijing. Where prevalence decreased, this was largely due to higher proportions of never smokers in the younger age groups rather than to smokers quitting. Among women, smoking prevalence increased by more than 5% in 6 populations and decreased by more than 5% in 9 populations. For women, smoking tended to increase in populations with low prevalence and decrease in populations with higher prevalence; for men, the reverse pattern was observed. Conclusions. These data illustrate the evolution of the smoking epidemic in populations and provide the basis for targeted public health interventions to support the WHO priority for tobacco control.

A methodology for analysis of sugarcane productivity trends - I. Analysis across districts

Historically, few articles have addressed the use of district level mill production data for analysing the effect of varietal change on sugarcane productivity trends. This appears to be due to lack of compiled district data sets and appropriate methods by which to analyse these data. Recently, varietal data on tonnes of sugarcane per hectare (TCH), sugar content (CCS), and their product, tonnes of sugar content per hectare (TSH) on a district basis, have been compiled. This study was conducted to develop a methodology for regular analysis of such data from mill districts to assess productivity trends over time, accounting for variety and variety x environment interaction effects for 3 mill districts (Mulgrave, Babinda, and Tully) from 1958 to 1995. Restricted maximum likelihood methodology was used to analyse the district level data and best linear unbiased predictors for random effects, and best linear unbiased estimates for fixed effects were computed in a mixed model analysis. In the combined analysis over districts, Q124 was the top ranking variety for TCH, and Q120 was top ranking for both CCS and TSH. Overall production for TCH increased over the 38-year period investigated. Some of this increase can be attributed to varietal improvement, although the predictors for TCH have shown little progress since the introduction of Q99 in 1976. Although smaller gains have been made in varietal improvement for CCS, overall production for CCS decreased over the 38 years due to non-varietal factors. Varietal improvement in TSH appears to have peaked in the mid-1980s. Overall production for TSH remained stable over time due to the varietal increase in TCH and the non-varietal decrease in CCS.

Expression of glycoproteins in the vomeronasal organ reveals a novel spatiotemporal pattern of sensory neurone maturation

The main olfactory and the accessory olfactory systems are both anatomically and functionally distinct chemosensory systems. The primary sensory neurones of the accessory olfactory system are sequestered in the vomeronasal organ (VNO), where they express pheromone receptors, which are unrelated to the odorant receptors expressed in the principal nasal cavity. We have identified a 240 kDa glycoprotein (VNO240) that is selectively expressed by sensory neurones in the VNO but not in the main olfactory neuroepithelium of mouse. VNO240 is first expressed at embryonic day 20.5 by a small subpopulation of sensory neurones residing within the central region of the crescent-shaped VNO, Although VNO240 was detected in neuronal perikarya at this age, it was not observed in the axons in the accessory olfactory bulb until postnatal day 3.5, This delayed appearance in the accessory olfactory bulb suggests that VNO240 is involved in the functional maturation of VNO neurones rather than in axon growth and targeting to the bulb, During the first 2 postnatal weeks, the population of neurones expressing VNO240 spread peripherally, and by adulthood all primary sensory neurones in the VNO appeared to be expressing this molecule. Similar patterns of expression were also observed for NOC-1, a previously characterized glycoform of the neural cell adhesion molecule NCAM, To date, differential expression of VNO-specific molecules has only been reported along the rostrocaudal axis or at different apical-basal levels in the neuroepithelium. This is the first demonstration of a centroperipheral wave of expression of molecules in the VNO, These results indicate that mechanisms controlling the molecular differentiation of VNO neurones must involve spatial cues organised, not only about orthogonal axes, but also about a centroperipheral axis, Moreover, expression about this centroperipheral axis also involves a temporal component because the subpopulation of neurones expressing VNO240 and NOC-1 increases during postnatal maturation. (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Influence of seaward boundary condition on contaminant transport in unconfined coastal aquifers

Contaminant transport in coastal aquifers is complicated partly due to the conditions at the seaward boundary including seawater intrusion and tidal variations of sea level. Their inclusion in modelling this system will be computationally expensive. Therefore, it will be instructive to investigate the consequence of simplifying the seaward boundary condition by neglecting the seawater density and tidal variations in numerical predictions of contaminant transport in this zone. This paper presents a comparison of numerical predictions for a simplified seaward boundary condition with experimental results for a corresponding realistic one including a saltwater interface and tidal variations. Different densities for contaminants are considered. The comparison suggests that the neglect of the seawater intrusion and tidal variations does not affect noticeably the overall migration rate of the plume before it reaches the saltwater interface. However, numerical prediction shows that a more dense contaminant travels further seaward and part of the solute mass exits under the sea if the seawater density is not included. This is not consistent with the experimental result, which shows that the contaminant travels upwards to the shoreline along the saltwater interface. Neglect of seawater density, therefore, will result in an underestimation of the exit rate of solute mass around the coastline and fictitious migration paths under the seabed. For a less dense contaminant, neglect of seawater density has little effect on numerical prediction of migration paths. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent trends in pay equity: Beyond the aggregate statistics

The earnings gap between men and women has remained comparatively stable at an aggregate level over the 1990s in Australia. From one perspective, this is a reminder of the considerable difficulty of addressing wage differentials once the most overt forms of wage discrimination have been removed, and of the limited impact of most policy initiatives. From another, it may be seen as evidence that dire predictions about the effects of decentralisation on the earnings gap have failed to materialise. In this paper, I use Australian Bureau of Statistics data to show that a number of different trends are evident underneath the relatively static picture shown by the aggregate statistics, particularly as wage dispersion has increased. The data suggest not only that the prospects for pay equity are far from benign, but also that in the current labour market the issue of gender pay inequality cannot be effectively addressed separately from wage inequality more generally.

Mark-recapture may reveal more about ecology than about population trends: Demography of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population

Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark-recapture study conducted during 1975-1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22-70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87-97%, 95% CI) for females greater than or equal to 2 years old. Sixty-five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57-0.77 for females and 0.43-0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter-spring and greatest in autumn-winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35-0.46 for females and 0.29-0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age-specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark-recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark-recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.

Application of spatial analysis techniques to adjust for fertility trends and identify interplot competition in early stage sugarcane selection trials

Most sugarcane breeding programs in Australia use large unreplicated trials to evaluate clones in the early stages of selection. Commercial varieties that are replicated provide a method of local control of soil fertility. Although such methods may be useful in detecting broad trends in the field, variation often occurs on a much smaller scale. Methods such as spatial analysis adjust a plot for variability by using information from immediate neighbours. These techniques are routinely used to analyse cereal data in Australia and have resulted in increased accuracy and precision in the estimates of variety effects. In this paper, spatial analyses in which the variability is decomposed into local, natural, and extraneous components are applied to early selection trials in sugarcane. Interplot competition in cane yield and trend in sugar content were substantial in many of the trials and there were often large differences in the selections between the spatial and current method used by the Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations. A joint modelling approach for tonnes sugar per hectare in response to fertility trends and interplot competition is recommended.

Experimental investigation of contaminant transport in coastal groundwater

Contaminant transport in coastal aquifers is of increasing interest since, with the development of coastal areas, contaminants from surface sources may enter coastal aquifers and pollute the groundwater flow. Coastal groundwater flow is complicated because of the presence of a freshwater-saltwater diffusion zone and the tidal variation of sea level at the seaward end. This paper investigates experimentally the behaviour of contaminant plumes with different densities in an unconfined coastal aquifer. Experiments were performed in a flow tank filled with glass beads as the porous medium. Results show that the dense contaminant has a more diffusive front than the less dense one in the seaward direction towards the coastline. The plume becomes more diffusive when it travels closer to the saltwater interface. On the contrary, the less dense contaminant presents a relatively sharp outline. It tends to migrate in the upper portion of the aquifer and exits in a concentrated manner over a small discharge area at the coastline, not further seaward under the sea. Non-dimensional parameters show that instabilities occur in our experiments for a density difference of 1.2% or larger between the contaminant and the ambient water. The experimental results provide guidance for field monitoring and numerical modelling. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical modelling of contaminant transport in coastal aquifers

This paper employs a two-dimensional variable density flow and transport model to investigate the transport of a dense contaminant plume in an unconfined coastal aquifer. Experimental results are also presented to show the contaminant plume in a freshwater-seawater flow system. Both the numerical and experimental results suggest that the neglect of the seawater interface does not noticeably affect the horizontal migration rate of the plume before it reaches the interface. However, the contaminant will travel further seaward and part of the solute mass will exit under the sea if the higher seawater density is not included. If the seawater density is included, the contaminant will travel upwards towards the beach along the freshwater-saltwater interface as shown experimentally. Neglect of seawater density, therefore, will result in an underestimate of solute mass rate exiting around the coastline. (C) 2002 IMACS. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term trends in sunshine duration and its association with schizophrenia birth rates and age at first registration - data from Australia and the Netherlands

Back ground. Based on the well-described excess of schizophrenia births in winter and spring, we hypothesised that individuals with schizophrenia (a) would be more likely to be born during periods of decreased perinatal sunshine, and (b) those born during periods of less sunshine would have an earlier age of first registration. Methods. We undertook an ecological analysis of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration and schizophrenia birth rates based on two mental health registers (Queensland. Australia n = 6630; The Netherlands n = 24, 474). For each of the 480 months between 1931 and 1970, the agreement between slopes of the trends in psychosis and long-term sunshine duration series were assessed. Age at first registration was assessed by quartiles of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration, Males and females were assessed separately. Results. Both the Dutch and Australian data showed a statistically significant association between falling long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth and rising schizophrenia birth rates for males only. In both the Dutch and Australian data there were significant associations between earlier age of first registration and reduced long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth for both males and females, Conclusions. A measure of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration was associated with two epidemiological features of schizophrenia in two separate data sets. Exposures related to sunshine duration warrant further consideration in schizophrenia research. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in physical activity participation and the impact of integrated campaigns among Australian adults, 1997-99

Objectives: To determine whether awareness of the moderate physical activity message and prevalence of participation changed among Australian adults between 1997 and 1999, and if changes differed across Australia. Methods: Data were compared on awareness of the moderate physical activity message and on physical activity participation from identical national physical activity surveys in 1997 and 1999. Results: In 1999, following integrated public health efforts, recognition of the Active Australia campaign was substantially higher in NSW/ACT (61.7%) than elsewhere (29.3%). Knowledge about benefits of moderate activity increased between 1997 and 1999, more so in States with public health campaigns. National participation in 'sufficient physical activity' declined between 1997 and 1999, from 63% to 57%, but the decline was smaller in NSW/ACT (4.4%) than in the other States (6.0%). Conclusions and implications: Declining trends in physical activity in Australia require increased public health investments, including strategic planning and public education, such as occurred in NSW (1997/98).