Development of a generic crop model template in the cropping system model APSIM

The Agricultural Production Systems slMulator, APSIM, is a cropping system modelling environment that simulates the dynamics of soil-plant-management interactions within a single crop or a cropping system. Adaptation of previously developed crop models has resulted in multiple crop modules in APSIM, which have low scientific transparency and code efficiency. A generic crop model template (GCROP) has been developed to capture unifying physiological principles across crops (plant types) and to provide modular and efficient code for crop modelling. It comprises a standard crop interface to the APSIM engine, a generic crop model structure, a crop process library, and well-structured crop parameter files. The process library contains the major science underpinning the crop models and incorporates generic routines based on physiological principles for growth and development processes that are common across crops. It allows APSIM to simulate different crops using the same set of computer code. The generic model structure and parameter files provide an easy way to test, modify, exchange and compare modelling approaches at process level without necessitating changes in the code. The standard interface generalises the model inputs and outputs, and utilises a standard protocol to communicate with other APSIM modules through the APSIM engine. The crop template serves as a convenient means to test new insights and compare approaches to component modelling, while maintaining a focus on predictive capability. This paper describes and discusses the scientific basis, the design, implementation and future development of the crop template in APSIM. On this basis, we argue that the combination of good software engineering with sound crop science can enhance the rate of advance in crop modelling. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Dry matter production and allocation in Eucalyptus cloeziana and Eucalyptus argophloia seedlings in response to soil water deficits

Effects of soil water availability on seedling growth, dry matter production and allocation were determined for Gympie ( humid coastal) and Hungry Hills ( dry inland) provenances of Eucalyptus cloeziana F. Muell. and for E. argophloia Blakely ( dry inland) species. Seven-month-old seedlings were subjected to well-watered (100% field capacity, FC), moderate (70% FC) and severe (50% FC) soil water regimes in a glasshouse environment for 14 wk. There were significant differences in seedling growth, biomass production and allocation patterns between species. E. argophloia produced twice as much biomass at 100% FC, and more than three times as much at 70% and 50% FC than did either E. cloeziana provenance. Although the humid provenance of E. cloeziana had a greater leaf area at 100% FC conditions than did the dry provenance, total biomass production did not differ significantly. Both E. cloeziana provenances were highly sensitive to water deficits. E. argophloia allocated 10% more biomass to roots than did E. cloeziana. Allometric analyses indicated that relative biomass allocation patterns were significantly affected by genotype but not by soil water availability. These results have implications for taxon selection for cultivation in humid and subhumid regions.

Leaf water relations of Eucalyptus cloeziana and Eucalyptus argophloia in response to water deficit

Leaf water relations responses to limited water supply were determined in 7-month-old plants of a dry inland provenance of Eucalyptus argophloia Blakely and in a humid coastal provenance (Gympie) and a dry inland provenance (Hungry Hills) of Eucalyptus cloeziana F. Muell. Each provenance of E. cloeziana exhibited a lower relative water content at the turgor loss point, a lower apoplastic water content, a smaller ratio of dry mass to turgid mass and a lower bulk modulus of elasticity than the single provenance of E. argophloia. Osmotic potential at full turgor and water potential at the turgor loss point were significantly lower in E. argophloia and the inland provenance of E. cloeziana than in the coastal provenance of E. cloeziana. There was limited osmotic adjustment in response to soil drying in E. cloeziana, but not in E. argophloia. Between-species differences in water relations parameters were larger than those between the E. cloeziana provenances. Both E. cloeziana provenances maintained turgor under moderate water stress through a combination of osmotic and elastic adjustments. Eucalyptus argophloia had more rigid cell walls and reached lower water potentials with less reduction in relative water content than either of the E. cloeziana provenances, thereby enabling it to extract water from dryer soils.

Genetic variation in foliar carbon isotope composition in relation to tree growth and foliar nitrogen concentration in clones of the F-1 hybrid between slash pine and Caribbean pine

The objectives of this study were: (1) to quantify the genetic variation in foliar carbon isotope composition (delta(13)C) of 122 clones of ca. 4-year-old F-1 hybrids between slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm var. elliottii) and Caribbean pine (Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis Barr.,et Golf.) grown at two field experimental sites with different water and nitrogen availability in southeast Queensland, Australia, in relation to tree growth and foliar nitrogen concentration (N-mass); and (2) to assess the potential of using delta(13)C measurements, in the foliage materials collected from the clone hedges at nursery and the 4-year-old tree canopies in the field, as an indirect index of tree water use efficiency for selecting elite F-1 hybrid pine clones with improved tree growth. There were significant differences in foliar delta(13)C between the nursery hedges and the 4-year-old tree canopies in the field, between the summer and winter seasons, between the two experimental sites, and between the upper outer and lower outer canopy positions sampled. This indicates that delta(13)C measurements in the foliage materials are significantly influenced by the sampling techniques and environmental conditions. Significant differences in foliar delta(13)C, at the upper outer canopy in both field experiments in summer and winter, were detected between the clones, and between the female parents of the clones. Clone means of tree height at age ca. 3 years were positively related to those of the upper outer canopy delta(13)C at both experimental sites in winter, but only for the wetter site in summer. There were positive, linear relationships between clone means of canopy delta(13)C and those of canopy N-mass, indicating that canopy photosynthetic capacity might be an important factor regulating the clonal variation in canopy delta(13)C. Significant correlations were found between clone means of canopy delta(13)C at both experimental sites in summer and winter, and between those at the upper outer and lower outer canopy positions. Mean clone delta(13)C for the nursery hedges was only positively related to mean clone stem diameter at 1.3 m height at age 3 years on the wetter site. The clone by site interaction for foliar delta(13)C at the upper outer canopy was significant only in summer. Overall, the relatively high genetic variance components for foliar delta(13)C and significant, positive correlations between clone means of foliar delta(13)C and tree growth have highlighted the potential of using foliar delta(13)C measurements for assisting in selection of the elite F-1 hybrid pine clones with improved tree growth. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and biotic invasions: a case history of a tropical woody vine

The impacts of climate change in the potential distribution and relative abundance of a C3 shrubby vine, Cryptostegia grandiflora, were investigated using the CLIMEX modelling package. Based upon its current naturalised distribution, C. grandiflora appears to occupy only a small fraction of its potential distribution in Australia under current climatic conditions; mostly in apparently sub-optimal habitat. The potential distribution of C. grandiflora is sensitive towards changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry in the expected range of this century, particularly those that result in increased temperature and water use efficiency. Climate change is likely to increase the potential distribution and abundance of the plant, further increasing the area at risk of invasion, and threatening the viability of current control strategies markedly. By identifying areas at risk of invasion, and vulnerabilities of control strategies, this analysis demonstrates the utility of climate models for providing information suitable to help formulate large-scale, long-term strategic plans for controlling biotic invasions. The effects of climate change upon the potential distribution of C. grandiflora are sufficiently great that strategic control plans for biotic invasions should routinely include their consideration. Whilst the effect of climate change upon the efficacy of introduced biological control agents remain unknown, their possible effect in the potential distribution of C. grandiflora will likely depend not only upon their effects on the population dynamics of C. grandiflora, but also on the gradient of climatic suitability adjacent to each segment of the range boundary.

General practitioners' role in preventive medicine: scenario analysis using alcohol as a case study

The purpose of this analysis is threefold: first, to extract from the literature, current levels of GP detection of at-risk drinking by their patients, rates at which general practitioners (GPs) offer an intervention; and the effectiveness of these interventions; secondly, to develop a model based on this literature to be used in conjunction with scenario analysis; and thirdly, to consider the cost implications of current efforts and various scenarios. This study deals specifically with Australian general practice. A two-step procedure is used in the scenario analysis, which involves identifying opportunities for detection, intervention, effectiveness and assigning probabilities to outcomes. The results suggest that increasing rates of GP intervention achieves greatest benefit and return on resource use. For every 5% point increase in the rate of GP intervention, an additional 26 754 at-risk drinkers modify their drinking behaviour at a cost of $231.45 per patient. This compares with a cost per patient modifying drinking behaviour of $232.60 and $208.31 for every 5% point increase in the rates of detection and effectiveness, respectively. The knowledge, skill and attitude of practitioners toward drinking are significant, and they can be the prime motivators in persuading their patients to modify drinking behaviour.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of buprenorphine-assisted heroin withdrawal

The purpose of this study was to conduct a cost - effectiveness analysis of detoxification from heroin using buprenorphine in a specialist clinic versus a shared care setting. A randomized controlled trial was conducted with a total of 115 heroin-dependent patients receiving a 5-day treatment regime of buprenorphine. The specialist clinic was a community-based treatment agency in inner-city Sydney. Shared care involved treatment by a general practitioner supplemented by weekend dispensing and some concurrent counselling at the specialist clinic. Quanti. cation of resource use was limited to inputs for treatment provision. The primary outcome measure used in the economic analysis was the proportion of each group that completed detoxification and achieved an initial 7-day period of abstinence. Buprenorphine detoxification in the shared care setting was estimated to be $24 more expensive per patient than treatment at the clinic, which had an average treatment cost of $332 per patient. Twenty-three per cent of the shared care patients and 22% of the clinic patients reported no opiate use during the withdrawal period. These results suggest that the provision of buprenorphine treatment for heroin dependence in shared care and clinic appear to be equally cost - effective.

A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions I. Model development

Cereal-legume intercropping plays an important role in subsistence food production in developing countries, especially in situations of limited water resources. Crop simulation can be used to assess risk for intercrop productivity over time and space. In this study, a simple model for intercropping was developed for cereal and legume growth and yield, under semi-arid conditions. The model is based on radiation interception and use, and incorporates a water stress factor. Total dry matter and yield are functions of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the fraction of radiation intercepted and radiation use efficiency (RUE). One of two PAR sub-models was used to estimate PAR from solar radiation; either PAR is 50% of solar radiation or the ratio of PAR to solar radiation (PAR/SR) is a function of the clearness index (K-T). The fraction of radiation intercepted was calculated either based on Beer's Law with crop extinction coefficients (K) from field experiments or from previous reports. RUE was calculated as a function of available soil water to a depth of 900 mm (ASW). Either the soil water balance method or the decay curve approach was used to determine ASW. Thus, two alternatives for each of three factors, i.e., PAR/SR, K and ASW, were considered, giving eight possible models (2 methods x 3 factors). The model calibration and validation were carried out with maize-bean intercropping systems using data collected in a semi-arid region (Bloemfontein, Free State, South Africa) during seven growing seasons (1996/1997-2002/2003). The combination of PAR estimated from the clearness index, a crop extinction coefficient from the field experiment and the decay curve model gave the most reasonable and acceptable result. The intercrop model developed in this study is simple, so this modelling approach can be employed to develop other cereal-legume intercrop models for semi-arid regions. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rice morphogenesis and plant architecture: Measurement, specification and the reconstruction of structural development by 3D architectural modelling

Background and Aims The morphogenesis and architecture of a rice plant, Oryza sativa, are critical factors in the yield equation, but they are not well studied because of the lack of appropriate tools for 3D measurement. The architecture of rice plants is characterized by a large number of tillers and leaves. The aims of this study were to specify rice plant architecture and to find appropriate functions to represent the 3D growth across all growth stages. Methods A japonica type rice, 'Namaga', was grown in pots under outdoor conditions. A 3D digitizer was used to measure the rice plant structure at intervals from the young seedling stage to maturity. The L-system formalism was applied to create '3D virtual rice' plants, incorporating models of phenological development and leaf emergence period as a function of temperature and photoperiod, which were used to determine the timing of tiller emergence. Key Results The relationships between the nodal positions and leaf lengths, leaf angles and tiller angles were analysed and used to determine growth functions for the models. The '3D virtual rice' reproduces the structural development of isolated plants and provides a good estimation of the fillering process, and of the accumulation of leaves. Conclusions The results indicated that the '3D virtual rice' has a possibility to demonstrate the differences in the structure and development between cultivars and under different environmental conditions. Future work, necessary to reflect both cultivar and environmental effects on the model performance, and to link with physiological models, is proposed in the discussion.

Links between tree species, symbiotic fungal diversity and ecosystem functioning in simplified tropical ecosystems

We studied the relationships among plant and arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungal diversity, and their effects on ecosystem function, in a series of replicate tropical forestry plots in the La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. Forestry plots were 12 yr old and were either monocultures of three tree species, or polycultures of the tree species with two additional understory species. Relationships among the AM fungal spore community, host species, plant community diversity and ecosystem phosphorus-use efficiency (PUE) and net primary productivity (NPP) were assessed. Analysis of the relative abundance of AM fungal spores found that host tree species had a significant effect on the AM fungal community, as did host plant community diversity (monocultures vs polycultures). The Shannon diversity index of the AM fungal spore community differed significantly among the three host tree species, but was not significantly different between monoculture and polyculture plots. Over all the plots, significant positive relationships were found between AM fungal diversity and ecosystem NPP, and between AM fungal community evenness and PUE. Relative abundance of two of the dominant AM fungal species also showed significant correlations with NPP and PUE. We conclude that the AM fungal community composition in tropical forests is sensitive to host species, and provide evidence supporting the hypothesis that the diversity of AM fungi in tropical forests and ecosystem NPP covaries.

Effect of nitrogen supply on leaf appearance, leaf growth, leaf nitrogen economy and photosynthetic capacity in maize (Zea mays L.)

Leaf area growth and nitrogen concentration per unit leaf area, N-a (g m(-2) N) are two options plants can use to adapt to nitrogen limitation. Previous work indicated that potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) adapts the size of leaves to maintain Na and photosynthetic capacity per unit leaf area. This paper reports on the effect of N limitation on leaf area production and photosynthetic capacity in maize, a C4 cereal. Maize was grown in two experiments in pots in glasshouses with three (0.84-6.0 g N pot(-1)) and five rates (0.5-6.0 g pot(-1)) of N. Leaf tip and ligule appearance were monitored and final individual leaf area was determined. Changes with leaf age in leaf area, leaf N content and light-saturated photosynthetic capacity, P a,, were measured on two leaves per plant in each experiment. The final area of the largest leaf and total plant leaf area differed by 16 and 29% from the lowest to highest N supply, but leaf appearance rate and the duration of leaf expansion were unaffected. The N concentration of expanding leaves (N-a or %N in dry matter) differed by at least a factor 2 from the lowest to highest N supply. A hyperbolic function described the relation between P-max and N-a. The results confirm the 'maize strategy': leaf N content, photosynthetic capacity, and ultimately radiation use efficiency is more sensitive to nitrogen limitation than are leaf area expansion and light interception. The generality of the findings is discussed and it is suggested that at canopy level species showing the 'potato strategy' can be recognized from little effect of nitrogen supply on radiation use efficiency, while the reverse is true for species showing the 'maize strategy' for adaptation to N limitation. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the sustainability of water withdrawals in the United States, 1995 to 2025

To evaluate the long term sustainability of water withdrawals in the United States, a county level analysis of the availability of renewable water resources was conducted, and the magnitudes of human withdrawals from surface water and ground water sources and the stored water requirements during the warmest months of the year were evaluated. Estimates of growth in population and electricity generation were then used to estimate the change in withdrawals assuming that the rates of water use either remain at their current levels (the business as usual scenario) or that they exhibit improvements in efficiency at the same rate as observed over 1975 to 1995 (the improved efficiency scenario). The estimates show several areas, notably the Southwest and major metropolitan areas throughout the United States, as being likely to have significant new storage requirements with the business-as-usual scenario, under the condition of average water availability. These new requirements could be substantially eliminated under the improved efficiency scenario, thus indicating the importance of water use efficiency in meeting future requirements. The national assessment identified regions of potential water sustainability concern; these regions can be the subject of more targeted data collection and analyses in the future.

After hours medical ward duties in a teaching hospital

In many Australian hospitals a medical officer is available for urgent review of in-patients outside normal working hours. Current practice in nurse-initiated requests for medical officer involvement out of hours may adversely affect patient outcome as well as medical and nursing resource use at these times. Of 10 523 nurse-initiated requests for out-of-hours review recorded by medical officers at our hospital in 2002-2003, the most frequent reasons for the requests were medication review, IV fluid orders, IV resite, venesection and pathology review, none of which are related to acute changes in clinical condition. Requests for routine review of medication and fluid orders were found to be rarely essential and often inappropriate. Medical officer activity was highest before midnight and least after midnight, suggesting most requests are fulfilled in the evening. Several strategies to reduce inappropriate out-of-hours requests were identified. Routine tasks could be completed by primary treating unit staff before going off-duty. IV cannulation and venesection may be performed by appropriately trained phlebotomists or skilled advanced practice nursing staff. Meticulous ordering of 'as required' analgesia and night sedation would reduce unnecessary requests. Clinical protocols for nurse-initiated adjustment of drugs with variable dosing may also decrease inefficiencies. This would leave the ward cover medical officers more available for their primary function of urgent patient review.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a kidney and cardiovascular disease treatment program in an Australian aboriginal population

The objective of the study was to assess, from a health service perspective, whether a systematic program to modify kidney and cardiovascular disease reduced the costs of treating end-stage kidney failure. The participants in the study were 1,800 aboriginal adults with hypertension, diabetes with microalbuminuria or overt albuminuria, and overt albuminuria, living on two islands in the Northern Territory of Australia during 1995 to 2000. Perindopril was the primary treatment agent, and other medications were also used to control blood pressure. Control of glucose and lipid levels were attempted, and health education was offered. Evaluation of program resource use and costs for follow-up periods was done at 3 and 4.7 years. On an intention-to-treat basis, the number of dialysis starts and dialysis-years avoided were estimated by comparing the fate of the treatment group with that of historical control subjects, matched for disease severity, who were followed in the before the treatment program began. For the first three years, an estimated 11.6 person-years of dialysis were avoided, and over 4.7 years, 27.7 person-years of dialysis were avoided. The net cost of the program was $1,210 more per person per year than status quo care, and dialyses avoided gave net savings of $1.0 million at 3 years and $3.4 million at 4.6 years. The treatment program provided significant health benefit and impressive cost savings in dialysis avoided. (C) 2005 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.