Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

A stochastic frontier production function with flexible risk properties

This paper considers a stochastic frontier production function which has additive, heteroscedastic error structure. The model allows for negative or positive marginal production risks of inputs, as originally proposed by Just and Pope (1978). The technical efficiencies of individual firms in the sample are a function of the levels of the input variables in the stochastic frontier, in addition to the technical inefficiency effects. These are two features of the model which are not exhibited by the commonly used stochastic frontiers with multiplicative error structures, An empirical application is presented using cross-sectional data on Ethiopian peasant farmers. The null hypothesis of no technical inefficiencies of production among these farmers is accepted. Further, the flexible risk models do not fit the data on peasant farmers as well as the traditional stochastic frontier model with multiplicative error structure.

Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) production from whey using recombinant Escherichia coli

Recombinant Escherichia coli strains harboring the genes from Alcaligenes eutrophus for polyhydroxyalkanoate biosynthesis were constructed and compared for their ability to synthesize poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) in a defined medium with whey as the sole carbon source. The highest PHB concentration and PHB content obtained were 5.2 g/L and 81% of dry cell weight, respectively.

Novel fed-batch strategy for the production of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1)

The production of Long-R-3-IGF-1 (an IGF-1 fusion analog) by constant-rate, fed-batch fermentation of Escherichia coli yielded 2.6 g fusion protein/L, corresponding to an actual IGF-1 concentration of 2.2 g/L. A novel strategy employing three distinct feeding stages was developed which raised product concentration to 4.3 g/L (3.6 g/L of IGF-1) while minimising glucose and acetate accumulation. This improved productivity was not accompanied by an increase in inclusion body size.

In familial hyperaldosteronism type I, hybrid gene-induced aldosterone production dominates that induced by wild-type genes

We compared the aldosterone-producing potency of the angiotensin II-sensitive wild-type aldosterone synthase genes and the ACTH-sensitive hybrid 11 beta-hydroxylase/aldosterone synthase gene by examining aldosterone, PRA, and cortisol day-curves (2-hourly levels over 24 h) in patients with familial hyperaldosteronism type I, before and during long-term (0.8-13.5 yr) glucocorticoid treatment. In 8 untreated patients, PRA levels were usually suppressed, and aldosterone correlated strongly with cortisol (r = 0.69-0.99). Fourteen studies were performed on 10 patients receiving glucocorticoid treatment that corrected hypertension, hypokalemia, and PRA suppression in all. ACTH was markedly and continuously suppressed in 6 studies, 3 of which demonstrated strong correlations between aldosterone and PRA (r = 0.77-0.92), ACTH was only partially suppressed in the remaining 8 studies; aldosterone correlated strongly: 1) with cortisol alone in 5 (r = 0.71-0.98); 2) with cortisol (r = 0.90) and PRA (r = 0.74) in one; 3) with PRA only in one (r = 0.80); and 4) with neither PRA nor cortisol in one. Unless ACTH is markedly and continuously suppressed, aldosterone is more responsive to ACTH than to renin/angiotensin II, despite the latter being unsuppressed. This is consistent with the hybrid gene being more powerfully expressed than the wild-type aldosterone synthase genes in familial hyperaldosteronism type I.