Briefing: Factored material properties and limit state loads-unlikely extreme or impossible pretense

In the limit state design (LSD) method each design criterion is formally stated and assessed using a performance function. The performance function defines the relationship between the design parameters and the design criterion. In practice, LSD involves factoring up loads and factoring down calculated strengths and material parameters. This provides a convenient way to carry out routine probabilistic-based design. The factors are statistically calculated to produce a design with an acceptably low probability of failure. Hence the ultimate load and the design material properties are mathematical concepts that have no physical interpretation. They may be physically impossible. Similarly, the appropriate analysis model is also defined by the performance function and may not describe the real behaviour at the perceived physical equivalent limit condition. These points must be understood to avoid confusion in the discussion and application of partial factor LSD methods.

A methodology for analysis of sugarcane productivity trends - I. Analysis across districts

Historically, few articles have addressed the use of district level mill production data for analysing the effect of varietal change on sugarcane productivity trends. This appears to be due to lack of compiled district data sets and appropriate methods by which to analyse these data. Recently, varietal data on tonnes of sugarcane per hectare (TCH), sugar content (CCS), and their product, tonnes of sugar content per hectare (TSH) on a district basis, have been compiled. This study was conducted to develop a methodology for regular analysis of such data from mill districts to assess productivity trends over time, accounting for variety and variety x environment interaction effects for 3 mill districts (Mulgrave, Babinda, and Tully) from 1958 to 1995. Restricted maximum likelihood methodology was used to analyse the district level data and best linear unbiased predictors for random effects, and best linear unbiased estimates for fixed effects were computed in a mixed model analysis. In the combined analysis over districts, Q124 was the top ranking variety for TCH, and Q120 was top ranking for both CCS and TSH. Overall production for TCH increased over the 38-year period investigated. Some of this increase can be attributed to varietal improvement, although the predictors for TCH have shown little progress since the introduction of Q99 in 1976. Although smaller gains have been made in varietal improvement for CCS, overall production for CCS decreased over the 38 years due to non-varietal factors. Varietal improvement in TSH appears to have peaked in the mid-1980s. Overall production for TSH remained stable over time due to the varietal increase in TCH and the non-varietal decrease in CCS.

Slagging propensities of blended coals

This paper presents the experimental results on the slagging propensity of three pairs of blended coals tested in the Australian Coal Industry Research Laboratory furnace. The results showed that none of the coals or blends produced strongly molten deposit. At worst, the deposits contained some moderately sintered material. Most of the blends have (slightly) worse slagging behavior than the component coals. In order to rank the slagging propensity numerically, we defined the minimum heat flux ratio and total heat flux ratio based on the heat flux profiles. They are better in ranking the slagging propensities than other measures such as the build-up rate and visual physical characteristics. The Fe2O3/CaO molar ratio correlates the slagging propensity for five coals and six blends of this study. The worst slagging occurs when the ratio approaches 1.0. This ratio provides explanation of why the blends had worse slagging than the component coals for the pairs of blends: A-B and C-D. However, we note that there are causes of slagging other than the Fe2O3/CaO molar ratio. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Techniques to determine ignition, flame stability and burnout of blended coals in p.f. power station boilers

The blending of coals has become popular to improve the performance of coals, to meet specifications of power plants and, to reduce the cost of coals, This article reviews the results and provides new information on ignition, flame stability, and carbon burnout studies of blended coals. The reviewed studies were conducted in laboratory-, pilot-, and full-scale facilities. The new information was taken in pilot-scale studies. The results generally show that blending a high-volatile coal with a low-volatile coal or anthracite can improve the ignition, flame stability and burnout of the blends. This paper discusses two general methods to predict the performance of blended coals: (1) experiment; and (2) indices. Laboratory- and pilot-scale tests, at least, provide a relative ranking of the combustion performance of coal/blends in power station boilers. Several indices, volatile matter content, heating value and a maceral index, can be used to predict the relative ranking of ignitability and flame stability of coals and blends. The maceral index, fuel ratio, and vitrinite reflectance can also be used to predict the absolute carbon burnout of coal and blends within limits. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of chronic clonidine treatment on transmitter release from sympathetic varicosities of the guinea-pig vas deferens

1 Previous studies have demonstrated that chronic pre-synaptic inhibition of transmitter release by morphine evokes a counter-adaptive response in the sympathetic nerve terminals that manifests itself as an increase in transmitter release during acute withdrawal. In the present study we examined the possibility that other pre-synaptically acting drugs such as clonidine also evoke a counter-adaptive response in the sympathetic nerve terminals. 2 In chronically saline treated (CST) preparations, clonidine (0.5 muM) completely abolished evoked transmitter release from sympathetic varicosities bathed in an extracellular calcium concentration ([Ca2+](o)) of 2 mM. The inhibitory effect of clonidine was reduced by increasing [Ca2+](o) from 2 to 4 mM and the stimulation frequency from 0.1 to 1 Hz. 3 The nerve terminal impulse (NTI) was not affected by concentrations of clonidine that completely abolished evoked transmitter release. 4 Sympathetic varicosities developed a tolerance to clonidine (0.5 muM) following 7-9 days of chronic exposure to clonidine. 5 Acute withdrawal of preparations following chronic clonidine treatment (CCT) resulted in a significant (P

Set-valued Markov chains and negative semitrajectories of discretized dynamical systems

Computer simulation of dynamical systems involves a phase space which is the finite set of machine arithmetic. Rounding state values of the continuous system to this grid yields a spatially discrete dynamical system, often with different dynamical behaviour. Discretization of an invertible smooth system gives a system with set-valued negative semitrajectories. As the grid is refined, asymptotic behaviour of the semitrajectories follows probabilistic laws which correspond to a set-valued Markov chain, whose transition probabilities can be explicitly calculated. The results are illustrated for two-dimensional dynamical systems obtained by discretization of fractional linear transformations of the unit disc in the complex plane.

The effects of temperature on the growth, survival and biomass of different families of juvenile Penaeus japonicus Bate

Variation in the growth, survival and change in total biomass (termed biomass increase) of different families of juvenile Penaeus japonicus was investigated over a range of temperatures in controlled laboratory experiments. In the first experiment, the effects of temperature on six families of juveniles were examined over a broad range of temperatures (24 to 30 degreesC). In the second experiment, the effects of temperature on six more families of juveniles were examined over a narrower range of temperatures (27.5 to 31.2 degreesC). Over the broad temperature range, mean growth and biomass increase were highest at 27 degreesC and mean survival was highest at 24 degreesC. Mean growth was lowest at 24 degreesC, whilst survival and biomass increase were lowest at 30 degreesC. However, there was a significant interaction between family and temperature, with some families tolerating a broader range of temperatures than others. As a result, the ranking of families in relation to growth, survival and biomass increase changed at each temperature. This effect was more pronounced for survival than for growth. Over the narrower range, temperature significantly affected growth, survival and biomass increase, but there was no significant interaction between family and temperature. Growth, survival and biomass increase were significantly lower at 31.2 than at 27.5 and 29.2 degreesC. These results suggest that if grow-out conditions for P. japonicus vary by more than a few degrees, interactions between family and temperature could affect the efficiency of selection. The results also suggest that the family x temperature interaction may have a more pronounced effect on survival than on growth. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Branching processes and computational collapse of discretized unimodal mappings

In computer simulations of smooth dynamical systems, the original phase space is replaced by machine arithmetic, which is a finite set. The resulting spatially discretized dynamical systems do not inherit all functional properties of the original systems, such as surjectivity and existence of absolutely continuous invariant measures. This can lead to computational collapse to fixed points or short cycles. The paper studies loss of such properties in spatial discretizations of dynamical systems induced by unimodal mappings of the unit interval. The problem reduces to studying set-valued negative semitrajectories of the discretized system. As the grid is refined, the asymptotic behavior of the cardinality structure of the semitrajectories follows probabilistic laws corresponding to a branching process. The transition probabilities of this process are explicitly calculated. These results are illustrated by the example of the discretized logistic mapping.

Modelling of microstructure formation and evolution during solidification

A comprehensive probabilistic model for simulating microstructure formation and evolution during solidification has been developed, based on coupling a Finite Differential Method (FDM) for macroscopic modelling of heat diffusion to a modified Cellular Automaton (mCA) for microscopic modelling of nucleation, growth of microstructures and solute diffusion. The mCA model is similar to Nastac's model for handling solute redistribution in the liquid and solid phases, curvature and growth anisotropy, but differs in the treatment of nucleation and growth. The aim is to improve understanding of the relationship between the solidification conditions and microstructure formation and evolution. A numerical algorithm used for FDM and mCA was developed. At each coarse scale, temperatures at FDM nodes were calculated while nucleation-growth simulation was done at a finer scale, with the temperature at the cell locations being interpolated from those at the coarser volumes. This model takes account of thermal, curvature and solute diffusion effects. Therefore, it can not only simulate microstructures of alloys both on the scale of grain size (macroscopic level) and the dendrite tip length (mesoscopic level), but also investigate nucleation mechanisms and growth kinetics of alloys solidified with various solute concentrations and solidification morphologies. The calculated results are compared with values of grain sizes and solidification morphologies of microstructures obtained from a set of casting experiments of Al-Si alloys in graphite crucibles.

A uniform white-noise model for fixed-point roundoff errors in digital systems

Fixed-point roundoff noise in digital implementation of linear systems arises due to overflow, quantization of coefficients and input signals, and arithmetical errors. In uniform white-noise models, the last two types of roundoff errors are regarded as uniformly distributed independent random vectors on cubes of suitable size. For input signal quantization errors, the heuristic model is justified by a quantization theorem, which cannot be directly applied to arithmetical errors due to the complicated input-dependence of errors. The complete uniform white-noise model is shown to be valid in the sense of weak convergence of probabilistic measures as the lattice step tends to zero if the matrices of realization of the system in the state space satisfy certain nonresonance conditions and the finite-dimensional distributions of the input signal are absolutely continuous.

Leaf water potential and osmotic adjustment as physiological traits to improve drought tolerance in rice

A sample of recombinant inbred lines (RILs) was derived from a bi-parental cross between Lemont and BK88-BR6, which contrasted in maintenance of leaf water potential (LWP) and expression of osmotic adjustment (OA). Genotypic variation for LWP and OA, and their associations with yield determination under water deficit, was studied in a series of five field experiments. Genotypic variation in the maintenance of high LWP was consistent across water deficit experiments. In the determination of genotypic variation in the maintenance of LWP, rate of water deficit was not an important factor influencing ranking, but degree of water deficit, and phenological development stage were important, particularly around heading. Genotypic variation in expression of OA was also observed under water deficits during both vegetative and flowering stages but ranking was inconsistent across experiments. This was in part because of large experimental errors associated with its measurement, but also because the expression of OA was associated with extent of decline of LWP. The relationship between OA and LWP was demonstrated when data were combined across experiments for vegetative and flowering stages. Under water-limited conditions around flowering, grain yield reduction was mainly due to a increased spikelet sterility. Variation in OA was not related to grain yield nor yield components. There were however, negative phenotypic and genetic correlations between LWP and percentage spikelet sterility measured at flowering stage on panicles at the same development stage during a water deficit treatment. This suggests that traits contributing to the maintenance of high LWP minimized the effects of water deficit on spikelet sterility and consequently grain yield. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

But what if I don't want to wait forever?

We present an abstract model of the leader election protocol used in the IEEE 1394 High Performance Serial Bus standard. The model is expressed in the probabilistic Guarded Command Language. By formal reasoning based on this description, we establish the probability of the root contention part of the protocol successfully terminating in terms of the number of attempts to do so. Some simple calculations then allow us to establish an upper bound on the time taken for those attempts.

Simulation supplements field studies to determine no-till dryland corn population recommendations for semiarid western Nebraska

In a 2-yr multiple-site field study conducted in western Nebraska during 1999 and 2000, optimum dryland corn (Zea mays L.) population varied from less than 1.7 to more than 5.6 plants m(-2), depending largely on available water resources. The objective of this study was to use a modeling approach to investigate corn population recommendations for a wide range of seasonal variation. A corn growth simulation model (APSIM-maize) was coupled to long-term sequences of historical climatic data from western Nebraska to provide probabilistic estimates of dryland yield for a range of corn populations. Simulated populations ranged from 2 to 5 plants m(-2). Simulations began with one of three levels of available soil water at planting, either 80, 160, or 240 mm in the surface 1.5 m of a loam soil. Gross margins were maximized at 3 plants m(-2) when starting available water was 160 or 240 mm, and the expected probability of a financial loss at this population was reduced from about 10% at 160 mm to 0% at 240 mm. When starting available water was 80 mm, average gross margins were less than $15 ha(-1), and risk of financial loss exceeded 40%. Median yields were greatest when starting available soil water was 240 mm. However, perhaps the greater benefit of additional soil water at planting was reduction in the risk of making a financial loss. Dryland corn growers in western Nebraska are advised to use a population of 3 plants m(-2) as a base recommendation.

Pseudo-randomness of round-off errors in discretized linear maps on the plane

We analyze the sequences of round-off errors of the orbits of a discretized planar rotation, from a probabilistic angle. It was shown [Bosio & Vivaldi, 2000] that for a dense set of parameters, the discretized map can be embedded into an expanding p-adic dynamical system, which serves as a source of deterministic randomness. For each parameter value, these systems can generate infinitely many distinct pseudo-random sequences over a finite alphabet, whose average period is conjectured to grow exponentially with the bit-length of the initial condition (the seed). We study some properties of these symbolic sequences, deriving a central limit theorem for the deviations between round-off and exact orbits, and obtain bounds concerning repetitions of words. We also explore some asymptotic problems computationally, verifying, among other things, that the occurrence of words of a given length is consistent with that of an abstract Bernoulli sequence.