Rumors and stable-cause attribution in prediction and behavior

Two stock-market simulation experiments investigated the notion that rumors that invoke stable-cause attributions spawn illusory associations and less regressive predictions and behavior. In Study 1, illusory perceptions of association and stable causation (rumors caused price changes on the day after they appeared) existed despite rigorous conditions of nonassociation (price changes were unrelated to rumors). Predictions (recent price trends will continue) and trading behavior (departures from a strong buy-low-sell-high strategy) were both anti-regressive. In Study 2, stability of attribution was manipulated via a computerized tutorial. Participants taught to view price-changes as caused by stable forces predicted less regressively and departed more from buy-low-sell-high trading patterns than those taught to perceive changes as caused by unstable forces. Results inform a social cognitive and decision theoretic understanding of rumor by integrating it with causal attribution, covariation detection, and prediction theory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Behavior of argon gas release from manganese oxide minerals as revealed by Ar-40/Ar-39 laser incremental heating analysis

Manganese oxides in association with paleo-weathering may provide significant insights into the multiple factors affecting the formation and evolution of weathering profiles, such as temperature, precipitation, and biodiversity. Laser probe step-heating analysis of supergene hollandite and cryptomelane samples collected from central Queensland, Australia, yield well-defined plateaus and consistent isochron ages, confirming the feasibility, dating very-fined supergene manganese oxides by Ar-40/(39) Ar technique. Two distinct structural sites hosting Ar isotopes can be identified in light of their degassing behaviors obtained by incremental heating analyses. The first site, releasing its gas fraction at the laser power 0.2-0.4 W, yields primarily Ar-40(atm), Ar-38(atm), and Ar-36(atm), (atmospheric Ar isotopes). The second sites yield predominantly Ar-40* (radiogenic Ar-40), Ar-39(K), and Ar-38(K) (nucleogenic components), at similar to0.5-1.0 W. There is no significant Ar gas released at the laser power higher than 1.0 W, indicating the breakdown of the tunnel sites hosting the radiogenic and nucleogenic components. The excellent match between the degassing behaviors of Ar-40*, Ar-39(K), and Ar-38(K) suggests that these isotopes occupy the same crystallographic sites and that Ar-39(K) loss from the tunnel site by recoil during neutron irradiation and/or bake-out procedure preceding isotopic analysis does not occur. Present investigation supports that neither the overwhelming atmospheric Ar-40 nor the very-fined nature of the supergene manganese oxides poses problems in extracting meaningful weathering geo-chronological information by analyzing supergene manganese oxides minerals.

Simulation of the influence of rate- and state-dependent friction on the macroscopic behavior of complex fault zones with the lattice solid model

In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

Play Preferences and Behavior of Preschool Children with Autistic Spectrum Disorder in the Clinical Environment

The play of children with autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) is a valuable medium for assessment and intervention, and its analysis has the potential to aid diagnosis. This study investigated spontaneous play behavior and play object preferences for 24 preschool children with ASD in a typical occupational therapy clinical environment. Play behavior was rated and choice of play object noted at 10-second intervals from a 15-minute video recording of unstructured play. Statistical analyses indicated that play behavior was consistent with descriptions in the literature. In addition, the children demonstrated clear preferences for play objects in the form of popular characters (e.g., Thomas the Tank Engine) and those with sensorimotor properties. We propose that the inclusion of preferred play objects in a clinical environment may increase intrinsic motivation to play, and thereby enhance assessment and intervention.

Physical activity and sedentary behavior: A population-based study of barriers, enjoyment, and preference

The associations of physical activity and sedentary behavior with barriers, enjoyment, and preferences were examined in a population-based mail survey of 1,332 adults. Respondents reporting high enjoyment and preference for physical activity were more likely to report high levels of activity. Those reporting cost, the weather, and personal barriers to physical activity were less likely to be physically active. Preference for sedentary behavior was associated with the decreased likelihood of being physically active, and the weather as a barrier to physical activity was associated with the increased likelihood of sedentary behavior. These constructs can be used to examine individual and environmental influences on physical activity and sedentary behavior in specific populations and could inform the development of targeted interventions.

Injury related risk behavior - a study of Australian skydivers

Risk taking behaviour has been identified as an important host-related determinant of injury in young adults. The aim of this study is to clarify the relationship between the two key elements of risk taking behaviour - ie, risk assessment and risk acceptance - in participants of a high risk sporting activity. Skydivers registered with the Australian Parachute Federation were sampled at several jump meetings held at three 'drop-zones' in North Eastern Australia. A cross sectional survey of 215 skydivers ascertained each subject's risk assessment of each of nine hypothetical sky diving scenes and whether or not they would jump in the described conditions. Variables which independently predicted an individual's risk assessment were age group (p < 0.05), gender (p < 0.05) and scene details (p < 0.001). Risk assessment was found to be a statistically significant predictor of the decision to jump, with a 22% decrease in the odds of jumping with every unit increase in risk assessment (OR = 0.78: 95% Cl; 0.76, 0.80). Gender was also found to be a statistically significant predictor of the decision to jump, with males being 19% more likely to jump than females, after controlling for age, experience, currency and risk assessment (OR = 1.19: 95% CI; 1.04, 1.38). The importance of these results is that, by quantifying the relationship between two key elements of risk taking behaviour and several important host factor determinants, they facilitate more informed discussion about the possible role of risk taking behaviour in the causation of injury.