The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Mean anisotropy of homogeneous Gaussian random fields and anisotropic norms of linear translation-invariant operators on multidimensional integer lattices

Sensitivity of output of a linear operator to its input can be quantified in various ways. In Control Theory, the input is usually interpreted as disturbance and the output is to be minimized in some sense. In stochastic worst-case design settings, the disturbance is considered random with imprecisely known probability distribution. The prior set of probability measures can be chosen so as to quantify how far the disturbance deviates from the white-noise hypothesis of Linear Quadratic Gaussian control. Such deviation can be measured by the minimal Kullback-Leibler informational divergence from the Gaussian distributions with zero mean and scalar covariance matrices. The resulting anisotropy functional is defined for finite power random vectors. Originally, anisotropy was introduced for directionally generic random vectors as the relative entropy of the normalized vector with respect to the uniform distribution on the unit sphere. The associated a-anisotropic norm of a matrix is then its maximum root mean square or average energy gain with respect to finite power or directionally generic inputs whose anisotropy is bounded above by a≥0. We give a systematic comparison of the anisotropy functionals and the associated norms. These are considered for unboundedly growing fragments of homogeneous Gaussian random fields on multidimensional integer lattice to yield mean anisotropy. Correspondingly, the anisotropic norms of finite matrices are extended to bounded linear translation invariant operators over such fields.

Model-based analysis of anaerobic acetate uptake by a mixed culture of polyphosphate-accumulating and glycogen-accumulating organisms

An increasing number of studies shows that the glycogen-accumulating organisms (GAOs) can survive and may indeed proliferate under the alternating anaerobic/aerobic conditions found in EBPR systems, thus forming a strong competitor of the polyphosphate-accumulating organisms (PAOs). Understanding their behaviors in a mixed PAO and GAO culture under various operational conditions is essential for developing operating strategies that disadvantage the growth of this group of unwanted organisms. A model-based data analysis method is developed in this paper for the study of the anaerobic PAO and GAO activities in a mixed PAO and GAO culture. The method primarily makes use of the hydrogen ion production rate and the carbon dioxide transfer rate resulting from the acetate uptake processes by PAOs and GAOs, measured with a recently developed titration and off-gas analysis (TOGA) sensor. The method is demonstrated using the data from a laboratory-scale sequencing batch reactor (SBR) operated under alternating anaerobic and aerobic conditions. The data analysis using the proposed method strongly indicates a coexistence of PAOs and GAOs in the system, which was independently confirmed by fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) measurement. The model-based analysis also allowed the identification of the respective acetate uptake rates by PAOs and GAOs, along with a number of kinetic and stoichiometric parameters involved in the PAO and GAO models. The excellent fit between the model predictions and the experimental data not involved in parameter identification shows that the parameter values found are reliable and accurate. It also demonstrates that the current anaerobic PAO and GAO models are able to accurately characterize the PAO/GAO mixed culture obtained in this study. This is of major importance as no pure culture of either PAOs or GAOs has been reported to date, and hence the current PAO and GAO models were developed for the interpretation of experimental results of mixed cultures. The proposed method is readily applicable for detailed investigations of the competition between PAOs and GAOs in enriched cultures. However, the fermentation of organic substrates carried out by ordinary heterotrophs needs to be accounted for when the method is applied to the study of PAO and GAO competition in full-scale sludges. (C) 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Discrete cyanide-bridged mixed-valence Co/Fe complexes: Outer-sphere redox behaviour

The outer-sphere redox behaviour of a series of [LnCoIII-NCFeII(CN)(5)](-) (L-n = n-membered pentadentate aza-macrocycle) complexes have been studied as a function of pH and oxidising agent. All the dinuclear complexes show a double protonation process at pH approximate to 2 that produces a shift in their UV/Vis spectra. Oxidation of the different non-protonated and diprotonated complexes has been carried out with peroxodisulfate, and of the non-protonated complexes also with trisoxalatocobaltate(III). The results are in agreement with predictions from the Marcus theory. The oxidation of [Fe(phen)(3)](3+) and [IrCl6](2-) is too fast to be measured, although for the latter the transient observation of the process has been achieved at pH = 0. The study of the kinetics of the outer-sphere redox process, with the S2O82- and [Co(ox)(3)](3-) oxidants, has been carried out as a function of pH, temperature, and pressure. As a whole, the values found for the activation volumes, entropies, and enthalpies are in the following margins, for the diprotonated and non-protonated dinuclear complexes, respectively: DeltaV(not equal) from 11 to 13 and 15 to 20 cm(3) mol(-1); DeltaS(not equal) from 110 to 30 and -60 to -90 J K-1 mol(-1); DeltaH(not equal) from 115 to 80 and 50 to 65 kJ.mol(-1). The thermal activation parameters are clearly dominated by the electrostriction occurring on outer-sphere precursor formation, while the trends found for the values of the volume of activation indicate an important degree of tuning due to the charge distribution during the electron transfer process. The special arrangement on the amine ligands in the isomer trans[(L14CoNCFeII)-N-III(CN)(5)](-) accounts for important differences in solvent-assisted hydrogen bonding occurring within the outer-sphere redox process, as has been established in redox reactions of similar compounds. ((C) Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 69451 Weinheim, Germany, 2003).