Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Ultraviolet signals in birds are special

Recent behavioural experiments have shown that birds use ultraviolet (UV)-reflective and fluorescent plumage as cues in mate choice. It remains controversial, however, whether such UV signals play a special role in sexual communication, or whether they are part of general plumage coloration. We use a comparative approach to test for a general association between sexual signalling and either UV-reflective or fluorescent plumage. Among the species surveyed, 72% have UV colours and there is a significant positive association between UV reflectance and courtship displays. Among parrots (Psittaciformes), 68% of surveyed species have fluorescent plumage, and again there is a strong positive association between courtship displays and fluorescence. These associations are not artefacts of the plumage used in courtship displays, being generally more 'colourful' because there is no association between display and colours lacking UV reflectance or fluorescence. Equally, these associations are not phylogenetic artefacts because all results remain unchanged when families or genera, rather than species, are used as independent data points. We also find that, in parrots, fluorescent plumage is usually found adjacent to UV-reflective plumage. Using a simple visual model to examine one parrot, the budgerigar Melopsittacus undulatus, we show that the juxtaposition of UV-reflective and fluorescent plumage leads to a 25-fold increase in chromatic contrast to the budgerigar's visual system. Taken together, these results suggest that signals based on UV contrast are of special importance in the context of active sexual displays. We review briefly six hypotheses on why this may be the case: suitability for short-range signalling; high contrast with backgrounds; invisibility to predators; exploitation of pre-existing sensory biases; advertisement of feather structure; and amplification of behavioural signals.

Read the whole thing: Journalism, weblogs and the re-mediation of the war in Iraq

This paper examines a particular form of online activity-weblogging, and how it has allowed for specific new forms of popular political communication in the context of the Second Gulf War. After describing the basics of weblogging, the paper discusses Western media coverage of the war and then shows how 'warbloggers' positioned themselves vis-à-vis media coverage and propaganda, creating commentaries that frequently combined media and political criticism. While bloggers of every political hue offered a range of perspectives and personal styles, some general tendencies are evident in warblogging discourse. The piece ends by questioning the significance of warblogging in terms of its potential contribution to democratic communication.