Injury related risk behavior - a study of Australian skydivers

Risk taking behaviour has been identified as an important host-related determinant of injury in young adults. The aim of this study is to clarify the relationship between the two key elements of risk taking behaviour - ie, risk assessment and risk acceptance - in participants of a high risk sporting activity. Skydivers registered with the Australian Parachute Federation were sampled at several jump meetings held at three 'drop-zones' in North Eastern Australia. A cross sectional survey of 215 skydivers ascertained each subject's risk assessment of each of nine hypothetical sky diving scenes and whether or not they would jump in the described conditions. Variables which independently predicted an individual's risk assessment were age group (p < 0.05), gender (p < 0.05) and scene details (p < 0.001). Risk assessment was found to be a statistically significant predictor of the decision to jump, with a 22% decrease in the odds of jumping with every unit increase in risk assessment (OR = 0.78: 95% Cl; 0.76, 0.80). Gender was also found to be a statistically significant predictor of the decision to jump, with males being 19% more likely to jump than females, after controlling for age, experience, currency and risk assessment (OR = 1.19: 95% CI; 1.04, 1.38). The importance of these results is that, by quantifying the relationship between two key elements of risk taking behaviour and several important host factor determinants, they facilitate more informed discussion about the possible role of risk taking behaviour in the causation of injury.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

High-Risk Merkel Cell Carcinoma of the Skin Treated With Synchronous Carboplatin/Etoposide and Radiation: A Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group Study-TROG 96:07

Purpose: The effectiveness of synchronous carboplatin, etoposide, and radiation therapy was prospectively assessed in a group of patients with high-risk Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) of the skin. Patients and Methods: Patients were eligible if they had disease localized to the primary site and nodes, and were required to have at least one of the following high risk features: recurrence after initial therapy, involved nodes, primary tumor size greater than 1 cm, gross residual disease after surgery, or occult primary with nodes. Radiation was delivered to the primary site and nodes to a dose of 50 Gy in 25 fractions over 5 weeks and synchronous carboplatin (area under the curve, 4.5) and intravenous etoposide 80 mg/m(2) days 1 to 3 was given in weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10. The median age of the group was 67 (range, 43-86) years, and there were 39 males and 14 females. Involved nodes (stage II) were present in 33 cases (62%). The sites involved were head and neck (22 patients), occult primary (13 patients), upper limb (eight patients), lower limb (eight patients), and trunk (two patients). Results: Fifty-three patients were entered between 1996 and 2001. The median potential follow-up was 48 months. There were no treatment related deaths. The 3-year overall survival, locoregional control, and distant control were 76%, 75%, and 76%, respectively. Tumor site and the presence of nodes were factors that were predictive for local control and survival. Multivariate analysis indicated that the major factor influencing survival was the presence of nodes; however, this was not a significant factor in locoregional control. Conclusion: High levels of locoregional control and survival have been achieved with the addition of chemotherapy to radiation treatment for high-risk MCC of the skin. The role of chemoradiotherapy for high-risk MCC warrants further investigation. (C) 2003 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Noise trader risk and the welfare effects of privatization

Excessive volatility of asset prices like that generated in the 'noise trader' model of De Long et al. is one factor that plausibly might contribute to an explanation of the equity premium. We extend the De Long et al. model to allow for privatization of publicly-owned assets and assess the welfare effects of such privatization in the presence of excess volatility arising from noise traders' mistaken beliefs.

Risk exposures and international diversification: Evidence from iShares

We examine the newly developed international diversification instruments–iShares traded on the American Stock Exchange. Given the fact that iShares can be created and redeemed at will, the daily price of an iShare is expected to be equal to the daily portfolio value of the underlying assets in the home-country market. Therefore, theoretically, iShare pricing should be influenced by the risk from the iShare's home-country market and not the risk from the US market, per se. We evaluate the risk exposure of iShare prices to the US market (non-fundamental effect) as well as the home-country market (the fundamental effect). We find that most iShare returns are significantly influenced by and sensitive to the US market risk. Moreover, the US market appears to be the key permanent driving factor and the home-country market is a pronounced transitory driving force for iShare prices. These findings indicate the presence of limits of international arbitrage for iShares. As a result, the international diversification benefits of iShares become questionable.

Do risk factors for lactic acidosis influence dosing of metformin?

Background: Metformin is commonly prescribed to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, however it is associated with the potentially lethal condition of lactic acidosis. Prescribing guidelines have been developed to minimize the risk of lactic acidosis development, although some suggest they are inappropriate and have created confusion amongst prescribers. The aim of this study was to investigate whether metformin dose was influenced by the presence of risk factors for lactic acidosis. Methods: The study was prospective, and retrieved information from patients admitted to hospital who were prescribed metformin at their time of admission. Results: Eighty-three patients were included in the study, 60 of whom had a least one risk factor for lactic acidosis. Of those 60 patients, 78.3% had a dose adjustment, with renal impairment, hepatic impairment, surgery and use of radiological contrast media - the risk factors most likely to result in a dose adjustment. When dose adjustments did occur, metformin was withheld on 88.7% of occasions. Conclusion: Metformin dose was influenced by the presence of risk factors for lactic acidosis, although it was dependent upon the number and particular risk factor/s present.

Chronic graft-versus-host disease after granulocyte colony-stimulating factor-mobilized allogeneic stem cell transplantation: The role of donor T-cell dose and differentiation

The use of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF)-mobilized peripheral blood as a source of stem cells has resulted in a high incidence of severe chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD), which compromises the outcome of clinical allogeneic stem cell transplantation. We have studied the effect of G-CSF on both immune complex and fibrotic cGVHD directed to major (DBA/2 --> B6D2F1) or minor (B10.D2 --> BALB/c) histocompatibility antigens. In both models, donor pretreatment with G-CSF reduced cGVHD mortality in association with type 2 differentiation. However, after escalation of the donor T-cell dose, scleroderma occurred in 90% of the recipients of grafts from G-CSF-treated donors. In contrast, only 11% of the recipients of control grafts developed scleroderma, and the severity of hepatic cGVHD was also reduced. Mixing studies confirmed that in the presence of high donor T-cell doses, the severity of scleroderma was determined by the non-T-cell fraction of grafts from G-CSF-treated donors. These data confirm that the induction of cGVHD after donor treatment with G-CSF is dependent on the transfer of large numbers of donor T cells in conjunction with a putatively expanded myeloid lineage, providing a further rationale for the limitation of cell dose in allogeneic stem cell transplantation. (C) 2004 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

Depression in young adolescents: Investigations using 2 and 3 factor versions of the parental bonding instrument

Associations between parenting style and depressive symptomatology in a community sample of young adolescents (N = 2596) were investigated using self-report measures including the Parental Bonding Instrument and the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Specifically, the 25-item 2-factor and 3-factor models by Parker et al. (1979), Kendler's (1996) 16-item 3-factor model, and Parker's (1983) quadrant model for the Parental Bonding Instrument were compared. Data analysis included analysis of variance and logistic regression. Reanalysis of Parker's original scale indicates that overprotection is composed of separate factors: intrusiveness (at the individual level) and restrictiveness (in the social context). All models reveal significant independent contributions from paternal care, maternal care, and maternal overprotection (2-factor) or intrusiveness (3-factor) to moderate and serious depressive symptomatology, controlling for sex and family living arrangement. Additive rather than multiplicative interactions between care and overprotection were found. Regardless of the level of parental care and affection, clinicians should note that maternal intrusiveness is strongly associated with adverse psychosocial health in young adolescents.

Vitamin D supplementation during the first year of life and risk of schizophrenia: a Finnish birth cohort study

Objective: Based on clues from epidemiology and animal experiments, low vitamin D during early life has been proposed as a risk factor for schizophrenia. The aim of this study was to explore the association between the use of vitamin D supplements during the first year of life and risk of developing schizophrenia. Method: Subjects were drawn from the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort (n = 9 114). During the first year of life, data were collected about the frequency and dose of vitamin D supplementation. Our primary outcome measures were schizophrenia, psychotic disorders other than schizophrenia, and nonpsychotic disorders as diagnosed by age 31 years. Males and females were examined separately. Results: In males, the use of either irregular or regular vitamin D supplements was associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia (Risk ratio (RR) = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.95; RR = 0.12, 95% CI 0.02-0.90, respectively) compared with no supplementation. In males, the use of at least 2000 IU of vitamin D was associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia (RR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.06-0.95) compared to those on lower doses. There were no significant associations between either the frequency or dose of vitamin D supplements and (a) schizophrenia in females, nor with (b) nonpsychotic disorder or psychotic disorders other than schizophrenia in either males or females. Conclusion: Vitamin D supplementation during the first year of life is associated with a reduced risk of schizophrenia in males. Preventing hypovitaminosis D during early life may reduce the incidence of schizophrenia. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ross River virus disease in Australia, 1886-1998, with analysis of risk factors associated with outbreaks

Ross River virus (RE) is a mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand human and environmental factors driving such events, 57 historical reports oil RR Outbreaks between 1896 and 1998 were examined collectively. The magnitude, regularity, seasonality, and locality of outbreaks were found to be wide ranging; however, analysis of climatic and tidal data highlighted that environmental conditions let differently ill tropical, arid, and temperate regions. Overall, rainfall seems to be the single most important risk factor, with over 90% of major outbreak locations receiving higher than average rainfall in preceding mouths. Many temperatures were close to average, particularly in tropical populations; however, in arid regions, below average maximum temperatures predominated, and ill southeast temperate regions, above average minimum temperatures predominated. High spring tides preceded coastal Outbreaks, both in the presence and absence of rainfall, and the relationship between rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index and Lit Nina episodes suggest they may be useful predictive tools, but only ill southeast temperate regions. Such heterogeneity predisposing outbreaks supports the notion that there are different RE epidemiologies throughout Australia but also Suggests that generic parameters for the prediction and control of outbreaks are of limited use at a local level.

A comparison of the association between socioeconomic position and cardiovascular disease risk factors in three age cohorts of Australian women: findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Objectives To assess the associations between three measurements of socioeconomic position (SEP) - education, occupation and ability to cope on available income - and cardiovascular risk factors in three age cohorts of Australian women. Methods Cross-sectional analysis of three cohorts of Australian women aged 18-23, 45-50 and 70-75 years. Results In general, for all exposures and in all three cohorts, the odds of each adverse risk factor (smoking, obesity and physical inactivity) were lower in the most advantaged compared with the least advantaged. Within each of the three cohorts, the effects of each measurement of SEP on the outcomes were similar. There were, however, some notable between-cohort differences. The most marked differences were those with smoking. For women aged 70-75 (older), those with the highest educational attainment were more likely to have ever smoked than those with the lowest level of attainment. However, for the other two cohorts, this association was reversed, with a stronger association between low levels of education and ever smoking among those aged 18-23 (younger) than those aged 45-50 (mid-age). Similarly, for older women, those in the most skilled occupational classes were most likely to have ever smoked, with opposite findings for mid-age women. Education was also differently associated with physical inactivity across the three cohorts. Older women who were most educated were least likely to be physically inactive, whereas among the younger and mid-age cohorts there was little or no effect of education on physical inactivity. Conclusion These findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of the association between SEP and some health outcomes. Our findings do not appear to confirm previous suggestions that prestige-based measurements of SEP are more strongly associated with health-related behaviours than measurements that reflect material and psychosocial resources.

Tumour necrosis factor inhibitors

The cytokine, tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) plays a key role in the pathogenesis of many chronic inflammatory and rheumatic diseases, in particular, Crohn's disease, rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis and psoriatic arthritis. Controlled trials have shown that the TNF inhibitors (etanercept, infliximab and adalimumab) significantly reduce symptoms and signs, improve function and quality of life, and reduce radiologically evident damage in patients with rheumatoid diseases. For reasons that are not entirely clear, etanercept does not work in Crohn's disease. Injection site and intravenous reactions and increased risk of infection (in particular, reactivation of tuberculosis) are associated with the use of these agents. Increased risk of lymphoproliferative disease, the development of lupus-like syndromes and demyelination, including optic neuritis and reactivation of multiple sclerosis, are under evaluation in long-term follow-up studies. The TNF inhibitors are expensive (about $18000 per year), and in some patients need to be given continuously to maintain benefit, even in the presence of other immunosuppressive therapy.

Migraine and risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage: a population-based case-control study

Objective. Evidence exists for an association between migraine and ischaemic stroke, but there is uncertainty about whether migraine is a risk factor for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). Methods. A multi-centre, population-based, case-control study using cases of first-ever SAH during 1995-98 and matched controls in four study centres in Australia and New Zealand. Self- or proxy-reported history, frequency and characteristics of headaches, classified according to 1988 International Headache Society diagnostic criteria. Results. 206 of 432 (48%) cases and 236 of 473 (50%) controls had a history of headaches. The frequency and characteristics of headaches were similar between the two groups. No association was found in logistic regression analyses for history or frequency of headaches, or migraine headaches. Conclusions. No evidence was found for an association between recurrent headaches and SAH. Such information is important for counselling patients and families about the significance of past and ongoing headaches in relation to this illness. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Height, age at menarche, and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

Objective: We hypothesized that the hormonal changes of adolescence influence ovarian cancer risk particularly in younger women. We investigated this possibility by examining the relationship between ovarian cancer and adult height and age at menarche as both factors reflect pubertal hormonal levels. Methods: Participants were a population-based sample of women with incident ovarian cancer (n = 794) and control women randomly selected from the Australian Electoral Roll (n = 855). The women provided comprehensive reproductive and lifestyle data during a standard interview. Results: Although neither height nor age at menarche was significantly related to the risk of ovarian cancer overall, increasing height was associated with increasing risk of the subgroup of mucinous borderline ovarian cancer (odds ratio, 5.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-19.1 for women 175 cm compared with women < 160 cm, P-trend = 0.02). Similarly, later age at menarche was associated with increasing risk of mucinous borderline cancers (odds ratio, 3.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-11.4 for those with age at menarche >= 44 years compared with those < 12 years, P-trend = 0.003). Women with mucinous borderline cancers were significantly younger than the women diagnosed with invasive cancers (mean 44 versus 57 years; P < 0.0001). Conclusions: Development of mucinous borderline ovarian cancers, predominantly diagnosed in women ages under 50 years, seems to be associated with age at menarche and attained adult height. These results are consistent with our original hypothesis that pubertal levels of reproductive hormones and insulin-like growth factor-I influence ovarian cancer risk in younger women.

Altered cell surface expression of human MC1R variant receptor alleles associated with red hair and skin cancer risk

The human melanocortin-1 receptor gene (MC1R) encodes a G-protein coupled receptor that is primarily expressed on melanocytes, where it plays a key role in pigmentation regulation. Variant alleles are associated with red hair colour and fair skin, known as the RHC phenotype, as well as skin cancer risk. The R151C, R160W and D294H alleles, designated 'R', are strongly associated with the RHC phenotype and have been proposed to result in loss of function receptors due to impaired G-protein coupling. We recently provided evidence that the R151C and R160W variants can efficiently couple to G-proteins in response to alpha-melanocyte stimulating hormone. The possibility that altered cellular localization of the R151C and R160W variant receptors could underlie their association with RHC was therefore considered. Using immunofluorescence and ligand binding studies, we found that melanocytic cells exogenously or endogenously expressing MC1R show strong surface localization of the wild-type and D294H alleles but markedly reduced cell surface expression of the R151C and R160W receptors. In additional exogenous expression studies, the R variant D84E and the rare I155T variant, also demonstrated a significant reduction in plasma membrane receptor numbers. The V60L, V92M and R163Q weakly associated RHC alleles, designated 'r', were expressed with normal or intermediate cell surface receptor levels. These results indicate that reduced receptor coupling activity may not be the only contributing factor to the genetic association between the MC1R variants and the RHC phenotype, with MC1R polymorphisms now linked to a change in receptor localization.