Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of the first year's experience with a low-cost telemedicine link in Bangladesh

In July 1999, the Swinfen Charitable Trust in the UK established a telemedicine link in Bangladesh, between the Centre for the Rehabilitation of the Paralysed (CRP) in Dhaka and medical consultants abroad. This low-cost telemedicine system used a digital camera to capture still images, which were then transmitted by email. During the first 12 months, 27 telemedicine referrals were made. The following specialties were consulted: neurology (44%), orthopaedics (40%), rheumatology (8%), nephrology (4%) and paediatrics (4%). Initial email replies were received at the CRP within a day of referral in 70% of cases and within thee days in 100%, which shows that store-and-forward telemedicine can be both fast and reliable. Telemedicine consultation was complete within three days in 14 cases (52%) and within three weeks in 24 cases (89%). Referral was judged to be beneficial in 24 cases (89%), the benefits including establishment of the diagnosis, the provision of reassurance to the patient and referring doctor, and a change of management. Four patients (15% of the total) and their families were spared the considerable expense and unnecessary stress of travelling abroad for a second opinion, and the savings from this alone outweighed the set-up and running costs in Bangladesh. The latter are limited to an email account with an Internet service provider and the local-rate telephone call charges from the CRP. This successful telemedicine system is a model for further telemedicine projects in the developing world.

Modulation of the adrenocortical stress response in marine turtles (Cheloniidae): evidence for a hormonal tactic maximizing maternal reproductive investment

The relationships between reproductive condition, level of reproductive investment and adrenocortical modulation to capture stress in marine turtles form the basis of this study. When subjected to either capture or ecological stressors, nesting marine turtles have demonstrated adrenocortical responses that are both small in magnitude, and slow in responsiveness. These observations were further investigated to determine whether this minimal stress response was a physiological strategy to maximize reproductive investment in adult green Chelonia mydas and hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata turtles. Female green and hawksbill turtles exhibited a decrease in adrenocortical responsiveness with progressive reproductive condition. Breeding turtles exhibited most suppression of their adrenocortical response to capture compared to both non-breeding and pre-breeding female counterparts. Nesting green turtles maintained a suppressed adrenocortical response to capture throughout the nesting season despite decreased reproductive investment. In contrast, male green and hawksbill turtles were less able to modulate their corticosterone (B) response to acute capture stress. During breeding, male turtles possessed significantly greater adrenocortical responses to capture than females. These results could indicate that the large reproductive investment necessary for female marine turtle reproduction might underlie the marked decrease in adrenocortical responsiveness. This hormonal mechanism could function as one strategy by which female marine turtles maximize their current reproductive event, even though under certain situations this mechanism could entail costs to female survival.

Telehealth and the diagnosis and management of cardiac disease

The financial and personal burden of chronic cardiac disease is high. Costs are likely to increase over the next few decades. Promising applications of telehealth have appeared in the diagnosis and management of cardiac disease and there are indications that telehealth services can improve the management of chronic cardiac disease as well as extend services to remote and rural populations. Telehealth has been applied to the capture of symptoms of cardiac disease with electrocardiography and echocardiography, to the management and rehabilitation of recently discharged patients, and in peer-to-peer consultation where remote expertise can facilitate diagnosis. Telehealth promises cost reductions in service delivery, although there is a need for properly controlled cost-effectiveness trials to underpin telehealth with a firm evidence base.

Mark-recapture may reveal more about ecology than about population trends: Demography of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population

Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark-recapture study conducted during 1975-1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22-70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87-97%, 95% CI) for females greater than or equal to 2 years old. Sixty-five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57-0.77 for females and 0.43-0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter-spring and greatest in autumn-winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35-0.46 for females and 0.29-0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age-specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark-recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark-recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.

Two new classes of conopeptides inhibit the alpha 1-adrenoceptor and noradrenaline transporter

Cone snails use venom containing a cocktail of peptides ('conopeptides') to capture their prey. Many of these peptides also target mammalian receptors, often with exquisite selectivity. Here we report the discovery of two new classes of conopeptides. One class targets alpha (1)-adrenoceptors (rho -TIA from the fish-hunting Conus tulipa), and the second class targets the neuronal noradrenaline transporter (chi -MrIA and chi -MrIB from the mollusk-hunting C. marmoreus). rho -TIA and chi -MrIA selectively modulate these important membrane-bound proteins. Both peptides act as reversible non-competitive inhibitors and provide alternative avenues for the identification of inhibitor drugs.

HIV gp120 receptors on human dendritic cells

Dendritic cells (DCs) are important targets for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) because of their roles during transmission and also maintenance of immune competence. Furthermore, DCs are a key cell in the development of HIV vaccines. In both these settings the mechanism of binding of the HIV envelope protein gp120 to DCs is of importance. Recently a single C-type lectin receptor (CLR), DC-SIGN, has been reported to be the predominant receptor on monocyte-derived DCs (MD-DCs) rather than CD4. In this study a novel biotinylated gp120 assay was used to determine whether CLR or CD4 were predominant receptors on MDDCs and ex vivo blood DCs. CLR bound more than 80% of gp120 on MDDCs, with residual binding attributable to CD4, reconfirming that CLRs were the major receptors for gp120 on MDDCs. However, in contrast to recent reports, gp120 binding to at least 3 CLRs was observed: DC-SIGN, mannose receptor, and unidentified trypsin resistant CLR(s). In marked contrast, freshly isolated and cultured CD11c(+ve) and CD11c(-ve) blood DCs only bound gp120 via CD4. In view of these marked differences between MDDCs and blood DCs, HIV capture by DCs and transfer mechanisms to T cells as well as potential antigenic processing pathways will need to be determined for each DC phenotype. (Blood. 2001;98:2482-2488) (C) 2001 by The American Society of Hematology.

Clinical trials with glycoprotein IIB/IIIA antagonists - No benefit without bleeding?

As the glycoprotein GPIIb/IIIa receptor is the final common pathway in platelet aggregation, antagonists of this receptor cause a profound inhibition of aggregation induced by any agonist. The short-term efficacy and safety of GPIIb/IIIa antagonists in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty was demonstrated with murine 7E3 Fab, but this antibody was immunogenic. Abciximab is a chimeric human-mouse monoclonal antibody that is less immunogenic. The first major trial with a GPIIb/IIIa antagonist was the EPIC trial with abciximab, which showed that abciximab reduced the ischemic complications of coronary balloon angioplasty and atherectomy in high-risk patients, but increased the risk of bleeding. Subsequent studies showed that using less concurrent heparin reduced bleeding. Abciximab also reduced the rate of revascularization. Further studies have shown that the benefits of abciximab extended to all patients undergoing angioplasty (EPILOG), including patients with unstable angina (CAPTURE) and acute myocardial infarction (RAPPORT). Clinical trials with eptifibatide and tirofiban have failed to demonstrate benefit, at the doses used, in angioplasty. Abciximab and eptifibatide, but not oral xemilofiban, improve the safety of the coronary stenting procedure. Shortterm intravenous treatment with lamifiban, eptifibatide or tirofiban is beneficial in acute coronary syndromes (unstable angina, non-Q wave myocardial infarction). Orally active GPIIb/IIIa antagonists are being developed for use in acute coronary syndromes and myocardial infarction. However, no benefit has been shown with lefradafiban in acute coronary syndromes and sibrafiban and orbofiban are harmful. Eptifibatide, lamifiban and abciximab improve coronary patency in myocardial infarction, and long-term trials of GPIIb/IIIa antagonists are being conducted in acute myocardial infarction. Abciximab can cause thrombocytopenia, and all the GPIIb/IIIa antagonists increase the incidence of bleeding, but there is no excess of intracranial hemorrhage. (C) 2001 Prous Science. All rights reserved.

Ecotourism for the survival of sea turtles and other wildlife

This paper discusses generally why humans should bother to conserve sea turtles. In doing so, it considers both economic and non-economic reasons and outlines threats to the existence of sea turtles and ways in which tourism may either contribute to the conservation or decline of their populations. Turtle-based ecotourism at Mon Repos in southern Queensland is described. As a result of a survey conducted by the authors, it is shown that turtle-based ecotourism at Mon Repos has positive social (indirect) consequences for the conservation of sea turtles. Furthermore, it is argued that ecotourism operations at Mon Repos have positive direct impacts on the sustainability of populations of sea turtles. However, using a simple model, it is emphasised that this impact is limited because turtles are migratory. A model is also developed to capture the possible relationship between turtle populations and the sustainability of ecotourism dependent on turtle populations, and is extended to other wildlife species. Significant interdependence exists between the sustainability of these two variables. The theory is related to Ciriacy-Wantrup's social safe minimum conservation standard for species' survival.

Feeding ecology of a carnivorous bladderwort (Utricularia uliginosa, Lentibulariaceae)

The terrestrial carnivorous bladderwort, Utricularia uliginosa Vahl. (Lentibulariaceae) was studied to determine the species assemblage present in traps of these plants in situ across four sites over 15 months. The immediate soil environment was also sampled to determine the fauna present, and to compare the fauna present in traps with the fauna in the environment. The soil fauna consisted of 10 taxon types, which occupied either pelagic, epibenthic or interstitial microhabitats. All were found in traps of U. uliginosa, with the main prey being interstitial taxa followed by epibenthic and occasionally pelagic taxa. Numbers of individuals of the two most abundant soil taxa (nematodes, Elaphoidella) varied independently across the four sites over the 15 months of the study, as did numbers of Elaphoidella in the traps of U. uliginosa. Numbers of nematodes in the traps of U. uliginosa showed significant differences among sites, but not differences among times. Comparison of the trap fauna with the soil fauna revealed differences in relative abundance between soil samples and trap samples for two of the three taxa examined. There was an under-representation of nematodes in the traps relative to numbers in surrounding soil. There was an over-representation of the copepod Elaphoidella in the traps of U. uliginosa relative to numbers in soil at some of the times of sampling. Acarina were equally abundant in soil and trap samples. The patterns observed for Elaphoidella and nematodes may be due to selectivity in trapping by U. uliginosa, and/or differences in digestibility of the prey. Elaphoidella individuals were found to be attracted to U. uliginosa in a behavioural experiment. This may contribute to the over-representation of Elaphoidella in the traps of U. uliginosa in the field.

Molecular rates parallel diversification contrasts between carnivorous plant sister lineages

In the carnivorous plant family Lentibulariaceae, the bladderwort lineage (Utricularia and Genlisea) is substantially more species-rich and morphologically divergent than its sister lineage, the butterworts (Pinguicula). Bladderworts have a relaxed body plan that has permitted the evolution of terrestrial, epiphytic, and aquatic forms that capture prey in intricately designed suction bladders or corkscrew-shaped lobster-pot traps. In contrast, the flypaper-trapping butterworts maintain vegetative structures typical of angiosperms. We found that bladderwort genomes evolve significantly faster across seven loci (the trnL intron, the second trnL exon, the trnL-F intergenic spacer, the rps16 intron, rbcL, coxI, and 5.8S rDNA) representing all three genomic compartments. Generation time differences did not show a significant association. We relate these findings to the contested speciation rate hypothesis, which postulates a relationship between increased nucleotide substitution and increased cladogenesis. (C) 2002 The Willi Hennig Society.

Mapping glider habitat in dry eucalypt forests for Montreal Process indicator 1.1: Fragmentation of forest types

Accurate habitat mapping is critical to landscape ecological studies such as required for developing and testing Montreal Process indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types. This task poses a major challenge to remote sensing, especially in mixedspecies, variable-age forests such as dry eucalypt forests of subtropical eastern Australia. In this paper, we apply an innovative approach that uses a small section of one-metre resolution airborne data to calibrate a moderate spatial resolution model (30 m resolution; scale 1:50 000) based on Landsat Thematic Mapper data to estimate canopy structural properties in St Marys State Forest, near Maryborough, south-eastern Queensland. The approach applies an image-processing model that assumes each image pixel is significantly larger than individual tree crowns and gaps to estimate crown-cover percentage, stem density and mean crown diameter. These parameters were classified into three discrete habitat classes to match the ecology of four exudivorous arboreal species (yellowbellied glider Petaurus australis, sugar glider P. breviceps, squirrel glider P. norfolcensis , and feathertail glider Acrobates pygmaeus), and one folivorous arboreal marsupial, the greater glider Petauroides volans. These species were targeted due to the known ecological preference for old trees with hollows, and differences in their home range requirements. The overall mapping accuracy, visually assessed against transects (n = 93) interpreted from a digital orthophoto and validated in the field, was 79% (KHAT statistic = 0.72). The KHAT statistic serves as an indicator of the extent that the percentage correct values of the error matrix are due to ‘true’ agreement verses ‘chance’ agreement. This means that we are able to reliably report on the effect of habitat loss on target species, especially those with a large home range size (e.g. yellow-bellied glider). However, the classified habitat map failed to accurately capture the spatial patterning (e.g. patch size and shape) of stands with a trace or sub-dominance of senescent trees. This outcome makes the reporting of the effects of habitat fragmentation more problematic, especially for species with a small home range size (e.g. feathertail glider). With further model refinement and validation, however, this moderateresolution approach offers an important, cost eff e c t i v e advancement in mapping the age of dry eucalypt forests in the region.

Prediction of absolute rate coefficients and product branching ratios for the C(P-3) plus allene reaction system

Complex chemical reactions in the gas phase can be decomposed into a network of elementary (e.g., unimolecular and bimolecular) steps which may involve multiple reactant channels, multiple intermediates, and multiple products. The modeling of such reactions involves describing the molecular species and their transformation by reaction at a detailed level. Here we focus on a detailed modeling of the C(P-3)+allene (C3H4) reaction, for which molecular beam experiments and theoretical calculations have previously been performed. In our previous calculations, product branching ratios for a nonrotating isomerizing unimolecular system were predicted. We extend the previous calculations to predict absolute unimolecular rate coefficients and branching ratios using microcanonical variational transition state theory (mu-VTST) with full energy and angular momentum resolution. Our calculation of the initial capture rate is facilitated by systematic ab initio potential energy surface calculations that describe the interaction potential between carbon and allene as a function of the angle of attack. Furthermore, the chemical kinetic scheme is enhanced to explicitly treat the entrance channels in terms of a predicted overall input flux and also to allow for the possibility of redissociation via the entrance channels. Thus, the computation of total bimolecular reaction rates and partial capture rates is now possible. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Development of a generic crop model template in the cropping system model APSIM

The Agricultural Production Systems slMulator, APSIM, is a cropping system modelling environment that simulates the dynamics of soil-plant-management interactions within a single crop or a cropping system. Adaptation of previously developed crop models has resulted in multiple crop modules in APSIM, which have low scientific transparency and code efficiency. A generic crop model template (GCROP) has been developed to capture unifying physiological principles across crops (plant types) and to provide modular and efficient code for crop modelling. It comprises a standard crop interface to the APSIM engine, a generic crop model structure, a crop process library, and well-structured crop parameter files. The process library contains the major science underpinning the crop models and incorporates generic routines based on physiological principles for growth and development processes that are common across crops. It allows APSIM to simulate different crops using the same set of computer code. The generic model structure and parameter files provide an easy way to test, modify, exchange and compare modelling approaches at process level without necessitating changes in the code. The standard interface generalises the model inputs and outputs, and utilises a standard protocol to communicate with other APSIM modules through the APSIM engine. The crop template serves as a convenient means to test new insights and compare approaches to component modelling, while maintaining a focus on predictive capability. This paper describes and discusses the scientific basis, the design, implementation and future development of the crop template in APSIM. On this basis, we argue that the combination of good software engineering with sound crop science can enhance the rate of advance in crop modelling. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Behavioural responses of two native Australian fish species (Melanotaenia duboulayi and Pseudomugil signifer) to introduced poeciliids (Gambusia holbrooki and Xiphophorus helleri) in controlled conditions

Experimental treatments to compare behavioural responses included native fish species only, natives plus one exotic species and natives plus both exotic species. The mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki frequently attacked both native species, but tended to nip Melanotaenia duboulayi (especially small individuals) and chase Pseudomugil signifer The frequency of attacks by G. holbrooki on M. duboulayi rose when all four fish species were present. When food was added, all four species showed a strong increase in aggression, especially in the four-species treatment, where there were significant increases in the frequency of attacks by the swordtail Xiphophorus helleri on M. duboulay and by M. duboulayi on G. holbrooki, and of conspecific attacks by M. duboulayi. Increased attack frequency was associated with aggregation closer to the water's surface, regardless of the presence of food. The results support the hypothesis that introduced poeciliids can have deleterious competitive effects on native species. However, while juvenile M. duboulayi were particularly vulnerable to the secondary, effects of fin-nipping, R signifer appeared to be more susceptible to physical displacement and reduced food capture success.